Attention NFL: It’s Later Than You Think

Attention NFL: It’s Later Than You Think – Here we are, late in the NFL Schedule. The Chiefs are 11-and-1 and face the 8-and-4 Miami Dolphins on the road and under the lights this Sunday. On the 20th, the Chiefs have a really tough game against the only other team to clinch playoff berth, so far: the New Orleans Saints. This will be a tough team to beat and it is down at the Big Easy for that one. Oh, yes, that is the talk of the town because it is a battle against a NFC opponent. Doesn’t change the standings really, even if the Chiefs lose to an out of conference foe. Although that is what everyone is talking about… I say: Meh.

The final two games of the regular season are home games against the Falcons and Chargers. The Chargers are an AFC West division team, always a tough challenge. The Saints are a playoff team for sure. The Falcons are having another also-ran season and of the four opponents in the Chiefs schedule, one might anticipate a mighty tussle with 3 of those 4 teams on the ticket.

What is the prediction for any of this? I can see the Chiefs splitting the final 4 games…. and, I can see them sweeping it. How about I predict a 3-1 record to finish out. The Chiefs would have a 14-2 record. If the Steelers (who are @ the Bill, @ the Bengals, Home vs the Colts and @ the Browns) lose another game and it is in conference, then things will get to be fun looking for a tie breaker and I think that the Steelers lose an AFC game versus the Bills, who are looking mighty strong in their stretch run. Maybe the Steelers fall to the Bills… AND? Well, who knows. Is it important? I really cannot see a huge advantage even with the Playoff Bye. It appears to me that the Chiefs would face the Steelers and win the game in the playoffs. So, the real tell is how much effort it costs to win out, to get a second Sequential Lamar Hunt Trophy and a trip back to the Super Bowl?

For that matter, I see other AFC foes that I think are more dangerous than the Steelers… the Bills for example. I think the Browns make the playoffs this season and if their running game is hot, they’ll be a tough out. The Ravens and Raiders are on the bubble.

If the Steelers finish 15-and-1, they would be the weakest 15-and-1 team ever. If the Chiefs finish 15-1, that would go along with the Power Rankings as they exist right this minute. However, that’s just one metric we read about. There are many others that are more important. Alan Haupt gave us a great view about metrics that mean something in an article here at ArrowheadOne called: Five Numbers That Matter.

I like what Alan did, so I thought, let’s look at a numbers comparisons for the upcoming scheduled teams and the the QBs. Just looking at the numbers will explain the picture that is most likely to unfold for the AFC Championship.

As an aside: I am looking above at what I have written so far I have mentioned the Steelers team name five times. That is too much name brand credit for my taste, so: CHIEFS, CHIEFS, CHIEFS, CHIEFS.

From an offensive prowess framework, I decided to do comparisons of the likely AFC Playoff teams, but also include teams if they were an opponent in the last four games of the 2020 Regular season. Those views follow.

QBs and Various Numbers

For QB’s I listed those that we will face in the last 4 games or are Playoff teams or bubble teams. Not listed are QBs for the Falcons and Saints.

QB & Team	QBR	Yds	TD/INT	Comp %	W/L	QBR RANK
Mahomes – Chiefs	113.8	3815	31/2	68.3	15-1	1
Roethlisberger – Steelers	96,2	3105	27/7	66.9	15-1	10
Tua Tagovaloa – Dolphins	99.4	898	7/0	63.2	8-4	21
Justin Herbert – Chargers	94,2	3224	23/9	64,8	3-8	7
Josh Allen – Bills	105.9	3403	26/8	69.9	8-4	8
Phillip Rivers – Colts	96	3263	18/9	68.1	8-4	16
Baker Mayfield – Browns	97.9	2442	21/7	62.7	9-3	18
Tannehill – Titans	99	1832	17/7	65	6-5	6
Carr – Raiders	100.8	4054	21/8	70.4	7-5	13
Lamar Jackson – Ravens	93.9	2055	17/7	63.8	6-5	5

Note: the thing that stands out for me is that Patrick Mahomes leads in all categories except Comp %, where he is #2. Further, with 4 games remaining, he likely will exceed 40 TDs, but even still and of greater import is the number of Interceptions. Mahomes is not giving other teams a chance for a turnover, which is a game changing stat, and in my mind, that is an outstanding statistic.

Stare At The Run Game Numbers

The above passing stats appears to me to be the telling tale for comparing teams. I was going to rotate position groups and look deeply at how the different teams stacked up in those categorical outlooks, but I found that for the Aerial Receiving game, the Chiefs ranked at the top and that’s the bottom line. So, I then turned my attention to the Running Game stats. Here is a difference that also tells a potential tale.

Team	Att	Yards	TD	Rush 1st	ypc
Bills	304	1229	16	72	4
Browns	388	1893	12	99	4.9
Chargers	356	1359	13	84	3.8
Chiefs	300	1358	10	79	4.5
Dolphins	317	1158	9	69	3.7
Raiders	347	1454	14	88	4.2
Ravens	392	2028	14	108	5.2
Steelers	299	1111	10	59	3.7
Titans	375	1802	16	94	4.8

What if we take the run game factor and attempt to find a point where Wins/Losses determine superiority? I just don’t see it. It would have to figure in, related to Time of Possession. Cleary, the Ravens, Titans and Browns are explosive run teams. We know from recent looks at the Browns (as a example), that if they can get their running attack established, it makes QB Baker Mayfield’s task through the aerial game work, and that has put the Browns into Playoff contention. This could also be said of the Titans and Raiders. However, there is no clear cut reason to presume that any of theirs is a superior offense to that of the Chiefs. However, it does demonstrate how to slow the Chiefs scoring attack down —> keeping the ball out of the hands of one Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs have a 3 RB thrust. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) may get that rookie 1k number to his credential list. Right now he has 668 yards rushing (he needs 83 yards per game). Behind that, Le’Veon Bell and Darrell WIlliams complete the triad. Sure, a table of teams with top RB’s could be added, but the above team outlook tells me why ToP is probably the most important factor so, I cover that next.

Average Time of Possession

Team	2020	Last 3	home	away
Steelers	32.04	33.14	32.41	31.12
Chargers	31.47	30.57	33.24	30.09
Raiders	31.12	27.59	32.43	30.07
Bills	30.59	31.44	30.25	31.34
Colts	30.58	30.19	29.4	32.16
Browns	30.4	33.43	30.2	31.25
Ravens	30.32	27.39	28.53	32.1
Chiefs	30.04	32.47	28.28	31.39
Titans	28.13	29.54	26.17	30.56

Bottom line ToP statistics tell us quite a lot. To break it down where I worry about it is to address games where the Chiefs were trailing and unable to overcome another team’s lead. In 2020, there is only one game where that resulted in a loss. I see no reason to expand on the subject. The loss was to an in-division foe: the dastardly Raiders.

Top Receivers

As far as providing a superiority view of receivers, I decided that a table wasn’t necessary. Tyreek Hill is #3, and Travis Kelce is #2 in the NFL (currently) in receiving yards. I could find different avenues and stats that would show the majesty of receivers for the various teams. I can’t see that as necessary. Clearly, total Yards and TDs provide a meaningful picture, but possessing 2 of the top 3 receivers simply: Explains the Truth. What the numbers don’t show is the superiority of the Go-To Target: Travis Kelce. Kelce’s max, as the man who comes through in the clutch and YAC, tells his tale: a huge factor in which both Kelce and Hill are leading characters in that saga.

Short Yardage Running

Here, I would like to merely point to two different articles that explain the how this might be a worry based on the past 2 games but overall, the Chiefs run game in short yardage situations is just fine. First, Laddie’s article this week and let it stand. See that article here.

Secondly, Seth Keysor in his “Chiefs In the North” publication covers the story extremely well. I had started an article about this, but both gents beat me to it. Here is a snapshot from Keysor’s article “Chiefs short yardage struggles: fact or fiction? What works, and what doesn’t?”

Here is a table from that extremely valuable article:

If the above outlook related to short yardage is part of a comparison of the Chiefs to their opponents, I could say that if I looked at the offensive line, and it’s effectiveness would alleviate most all concerns by all pundits, fans and worry warts about the offensive line. It’s true, it isn’t the best. It’s also true that the Chiefs are successful with the men they have and I do think Mitch Schwartz returns to ROT before it’s all over.

I just can’t see that as a major factor because despite losing starting LOG, Kelechi Osemele, and despite Lucas Niang sitting out the season, and despite Mitch Schwartz’s back problems… the Chiefs are relatively deep across the OL. Mike Remmers has played good football replacing Schwartz while he is out. Nick Allegretti has earned a starting job and I don’t look to see that change. However, the IOL remains the largest concern. Austin Reiter has not played well at Center. His game has not grown. Substitute Daniel Kilgore played well when Reiter was out. Andrew Wylie has not played up to high standard either, but I don’t want to just focus on either player being the complete problem. In fact, Andy Reid is unlikely to make drastic changes to the offense line willy nilly. To be noted though, in the wings, the Chiefs have Stefen Wisniewski and Martinas Rankin and as noted, Dan Kilgore. We all recall what both Wiz and Rankin did for the Chiefs in 2019. Ladner’s article covers this well: Getting the Chiefs OL Ready For a Stretch Run

In The Red Zone

I will state categorically: the Chiefs do not have a problem in the Red Zone. I am not even going to cover it.

Fortune Smiles: Top to Bottom Chiefs Organization Excels

If that is a deep enough look at some of the many metrics that one may use to address the likelihood of postseason success, I can leave it right there. It’s difficult to quantify the dynamic offense that Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy and the coaching staff present to any foe. Obviously, what they do is masterful and as noted, the Chiefs are 15-1 in the most important category. Ladner also had an article a couple of days ago, instructing himself to: “calm down”… “relax” and … “enjoy the ride.” I added a comment to that: “CHILL”!

The Chiefs will secure the division title. The Chiefs have secured a playoff appearance. All of you, think back to the outlook after the 2012 season. We fans are in good hands and fortunate to have the owner, front office, coaching staff and roster that the Chiefs have!

David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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