BALL VELOCITY: Exposing the Power Quarterback by John Cooney

BALL VELOCITY: Exposing the Power Quarterback
*updated list here
by John Cooney

There is not a more exciting offensive play in football than a deep aerial strike launched by a quarterback with a high-caliber arm to a speedy wideout. Crowds at games, practices and even workouts ooh-and-aah with anticipation whenever a passer hits the 7-step drop back, loads up and fires away. And why not! Other than a kick or punt return the “bomb” is the quickest way for a team to eat up huge chunks of yardage and strike up a quick six points in the process of a game.

A powerful passing arm gets attention and pro organizations salivate every year at the NFL Combine when the guys with the “big” guns take snaps. A quarterback builds a reputation for being a strong-armed passer early in his development. Football scouts will label a passer as a power-passer or weak-armed after viewing hours of game cut-ups and often via first-hand eyewitness experience, sitting in the stands and studying the athletes. Many of those labels are confirmed during the talent evaluation events, such as the NFL Combine or during the many Pro-Days that are held around the country. Ah, but it is in those staged testing grounds that some reputations of the rifle-armed are questioned while some of the reputed pop-gun passers surprise.

During the Combine one of the “measures” performed on quarterbacks is Ball Velocity. Passers, like baseball pitchers, are scanned by radar guns to get a gauge of how fast they actually can throw a football. Ball velocity on its own as an important test result carries some weight among the pro personnel evaluators, but how hard a QB can toss the rock isn’t a priority. When talking about the make-up of players’ skills most football fans can recite the 40-yard dash times, the bench press reps and even some of the cone-drill results. Yet ball velocity, a seemingly very attractive fact for football addicts gets little attention; even reporters, player agents and others associated with the quarterbacks tend to allow the actual measure slip into the shadows. Well, PASS turns a spotlight on Ball Velocity and exposes which quarterbacks really own cannon arms and, even more interesting, which passers may be carrying the “weak-arm” stamp undeservedly.  

Being able to generate the pro-level ball velocity is derived from a combining of various factors. Footwork, shoulder position, or “squaring” and point of release are as important to getting the most power out of every throw as natural arm-strength, hand-size and physical make-up. Quarterbacking successfully at the pro level requires proper coaching, scheme fit and a talented supporting cast. But there is also a science to power generation of the old pigskin. Dr. John Eric Goff, Professor of Physics at Lynchburg College and author of Gold Medal Physics: The Science of Sports, notes that the angle of the arm during delivery is key.

“A more sidearm delivery certainly puts the ball’s release point lower than a typical NFL quarterback. That bothers coaches because of the possibility of getting the ball knocked down.” Dr. Goff goes on, “It’s also interesting that the ball relies a little more on the fingers for launch speed, compared to a more overhand throwing motion that gets more of the palm involved.” Breaking down the perils of a three-quarter side-arm delivery in detail, Dr. Goff finds “Sidearm deliveries cause a little more precession in the spin axis because that axis is usually a little more away from the launch velocity compared to an overhand throw which leads to a little more air resistance for a sidearm throw compared to an overhand throw. Lower release points also require slightly greater launch angles for long throws. A greater launch angle means a longer time of flight, which might give corners a little more time to get to the ball.” 

Expanding on the scientific explanation of attaining optimum ball velocity, Dr. Goff said, 

“Just as a simple example, say that a quarterback wants to throw a bomb, nearly 60 yards. The quarterback releases the ball at 50 mph with a release angle of 45 degrees, and the ball is caught at the same height at which it was thrown. The ball goes nearly 56 yards down the field in about 3.22 seconds if we ignore air resistance. A well-thrown spiral doesn’t have too much air resistance, so those numbers don’t change much when including the air. If you drop the arm a foot like in a sidearm throw such as (Tim) Tebow’s, the range is just a tad over 49 yards and the time of flight is about 3.3 seconds. The conclusion of something like a 12 percent reduction in bomb distance is the new result, as long as one assumes the release speed has dropped 5 percent and the release angle has increased five degrees.” Dr. Goff concluded, “The time of flight is just under a tenth of a second longer, which might be enough for a corner to close a little gap that he couldn’t otherwise close.” 

So not only is pure physical strength a requirement for power passing, but hand-size and point-of-release goes a long way in generating top-end football speed.

Perceptions, Misconceptions and setting the Record Straight

Over the years we’ve marveled at the power quarterbacks generate throwing the football. Some turned that arm-strength into championship results while others experienced sporadic moments in the spot-light. Past power-passers such as John Elway, Brett Favre, Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Randall Cunningham, Vinny Testaverde, Jim Kelly, Sonny Jurgensen and Daryle Lamonica all dazzled fans through the years with highlight rainbow trajectories deep down field for touchdowns and fastball strikes into seemingly invisible seams through defensive secondaries. Others, like Kyle Boller and Jamarcus Russell, never could harness their arm-power to make it work for them. When examining and breaking down the glorious power-passers of the past we had to rely on the “eye test” to confirm their reputations of possessing strong throwing arms.

Today we still use “game tape” to gauge a quarterback’s ability to generate “heat”, but now we can confirm what the eye sees by measuring ball velocity with a JUGGS gun, or other speed-reading radar devices. In an article posted on Livestrong.com (Maximum Speed of a Football, October 21, 2013 by Rogue Parrish) the speed at which past quarterbacks could spin the football was “largely anecdotal but indicate that the greatest quarterbacks had exceptional throwing speed.” Mr. Parrish noted that Packer gunner Brett Favre was estimated at 63 mph. Now retired passing star and Hall-of-Famer-to-be Peyton Manning (pre-neck injury) could hit 59 on shorter throws. Saints’ QB Drew Brees was clocked at 52 MPH in a “Sports Science” segment for ESPN. According to some, including former Bronco wideout Rod Smith, John Elway brought the greatest velocity to the field. It is said Elway ripped it consistently in the 60-plus MPH. “They used to set the Jugs machines at 70 to 80 mph for us receivers to simulate John’s throws,” recalls Elway’s former top pass catcher.

Here is a look at the results of NFL Combine velocity reads from 2008 to 2017. In some cases the perceived is reaffirmed, but a few surprising speed readings are popped by passers who just may have been mislabeled by more than a few football writers and profiling bloggers failing to pay attention. The list consists of quarterbacks currently on rosters or actively seeking pro-employment, their college, current team (if on a roster) and their Ball Velocity. Have fun with the comparisons.

The following QB MPH results are according to OUR LADS’ NFL SCOUTING SERVICES, as featured in “Quarterback Ball Velocity at NFL Combine 2008-2017” Posted on March 16, 2017 by Dan Shonka. 

Ourlads’ Guide to the NFL Draft is the only source that gives the number for the quarterback’s velocity at the NFL Combine. Velocity is measured by a radar gun in miles per hour.

Name, College, NFL Team – Ball Velocity in MPH

• Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech, Bills (TE) – 60
• Bryan Bennet, SE Louisiana, free agent – 60
• Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech, TBD – 60
• Davis Webb, California, TBD – 59
• Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Texans– 59
• Colin Kaepernick, Nevada, free agent- 59
• Kirk Cousins, Michigan State, Redskins – 59
• Zac Dysert, Miami (OH), Cardinals- 59
• Tyler Bray, Tennessee, Chiefs – 59
• Stephen Morris, Miami, Colts – 59
• Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos – 59
• Jared Goff, California, Rams – 58
• Ryan Mallett, Arkansas, Ravens- 58
• Austin Davis, Southern Mississippi, free agent- 58
• Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles – 57
• Nick Foles, Arizona, Eagles – 57
• Mark Sanchez, USC, Bears- 57
• Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Free Agent – 57
• Chase Daniels, Missouri, Saints – 57
• Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois, free agent- 57
• Tom Savage, Pittsburgh, Texans – 57
• Sean Mannion, Oregon State, Rams – 57
• Brandon Bridge, South Alabama, free agent – 57
• DeShon Kizer, Notre Dame, TBD – 56
• Andy Dalton, TCU, Bengals – 56
• Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers – 56
• Colt McCoy, Texas, Redskins- 56 (recorded in a private workout with a radar gun & computer chip in the football)
• Ryan Nassib, Syracuse, free agent– 56
• Curtis Painter, Purdue, free agent- 56
• Brad Sorensen, Southern Utah, free agent – 56
• Patrick Devlin, Delaware, free agent- 56
• Josh Woodrum, Liberty, Bills – 56
• Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars – 56
• Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois, Patriots – 56
• Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans – 56
• Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State, Patriots – 56
• Jeff Mathews, Cornell, free agent – 56
• Keith Wenning, Ball State, Giants – 56
• Joel Stave, Wisconsin, Chiefs – 56
• Christian Hackenberg, Penn State, Jets – 56
• Anthony Boone, Duke, free agent – 56
• Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina, TBD – 55
• Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech, TBD – 55
• Trevor Knight, Texan A&M, TBD – 55
• Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers – 55
• Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens – 55
• Geno Smith, West Virginia, Giants- 55
• CJ Beathard, Iowa, TBD – 55
• Trevon Boykin, TCU, Seahawks – 55
• Russell Wilson, Wisconsin, Seahawks – 55
• Brandon Allen, Arkansas, Jaguars – 55
• Cody Kessler, USC, Browns – 55
• Cody Fajardo, Nevada, free agent – 55
• Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois, free agent – 55
• Casey Keenum, Houston, Vikings – 55
• Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, free agent – 55
• Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Colts – 55
• Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, Cowboys – 54
• Tajh Boyd, Clemson, free agent – 54
• Bryn Renner, North Carolina, free agent – 54
• Nate Sudfeld, Indiana, Redskins – 54
• Jake Locker, Washington, free agent- 54
• EJ Manuel, Florida State, Raiders – 54
• Matthew Scott, Arizona, free agent – 54
• Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh, TBD – 53
• Brad Kaaya, Miami, TBD – 53
• David Fales, San Jose State, Dolphins – 53
• AJ McCarron, Alabama, Bengals – 53
• Brett Hundley, UCLA, Packers – 53
• Kevin Hogan, Stanford, Browns – 53
• Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, Dolphins – 53
• Vernon Adams, Oregon, free agent – 53
• Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, TBD – 53
• Bryce Petty, Baylor, Jets – 53
• Dustin Vaughan, West Texas A&M, Ravens – 53
• Landry Jones, Oklahoma, Steelers – 53
• Chad Henne, Michigan, Jaguars – 53
• Stephen McGee, Texas A & M – 53
• Shane Carden, Eastern Carolina, free agent, 52
• Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, Bengals – 52
• Seth Russell, Baylor, TBD – 52
• Graham Harrell, Texas Tech, free agent – 52
• Pat White, West Virginia, free agent – 52
• Kellen Moore, Boise State, Cowboys – 52
• TJ Yates, North Carolina, free agent – 52
• Michael Kafka, Northwestern, free agent – 52
• Zac Robinson, Oklahoma St., free agent – 52
• Ryan Lindley, San Diego State, free agent – 52
• Josh Dobbs, Tennessee, TBD -51
• Jerry Lovelocke, Praire View A&M, free agent – 51
• Christian Ponder, Florida St, free agent – 51
• Colby Cameron, Louisiana Tech, free agent – 51
• Matt Flynn, LSU, free agent — 50
• John Skelton, Fordham, free agent – 50
• Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, free agent – 50
• Tyrod Taylor, Va Tech, Bills- 50
• Connor Cook, Michigan, Raiders – 50
• Connor Shaw, South Carolina, Bears – 50
• Nick Marshall, Auburn, Bengals – 50
• Deshaun Watson, Clemson, TBD – 49
• Michael Glennon, North Carolina State, Bears – 49
• Josh Johnson, San Diego, Giants – 49
• Sefo Liufau, Colorado, TBD – 46
• Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, TBD – 46
• Blake Sims, Alabama, free agent – 42 

Editor’s Note: Those who did not throw are not listed.

It is not surprising that Brandon Weeden, Colin Kaepernick and Kirk Cousins rank among the top throwers in this study as all three came to the NFL with the rep of being able to muscle a throw with the best of them. As a bit of a head-scratcher, the Bears’ Mike Glennon, a 2013 rookie surprise, logged in with a low 49 MPH mark. Coming out of the collegiate ranks Glennon was usually labeled a “power” passer with a check-down mentality. If we are to believe in the results of NFL’s Combine ball velocity measuring process, Glennon’s check down tendencies are more indicative of him understanding his own limitations and playing within his physical abilities. Plain and simple, Glennon isn’t a strong-armed thrower. In a reverse view is Nick Foles of Philadelphia. While Foles displayed power passer traits at the University of Arizona, 2013 marked a breakout for Foles. In the early pro-n-cons famously bandied-about by local and national football reporters Foles was compared and contrasted to lightning lefty QB Michael Vick.

Many predicted a big drop-off in big-play opportunities with Foles taking snaps; arm-strength was one of the inaccurate concerns. However, Eagle head coach Chip Kelly shared none of those concerns with outsiders. Turns out Coach Kelly knew what he had in Foles and understood that Foles could bring the heat well-enough, which he did. The Eagles led the NFL in pass plays of twenty or more yards in 2013 with Foles directing a potent offense. Yes, scheme mattered greatly, but Foles’s ability to get it there in a hurry keyed the Eagle explosive scoring. Kirk Cousins has learned to harness his power-packed right arm and is now one of the NFL’s top passers heading into 2017. Cousins uses his top-shelf velocity to thread the needle under 20 yards; he is in the process of sharpening his deep ball-accuracy however. 

There are quite a few interesting comparisons in the ball velocity results. Joe Flacco is said to possess the NFL’s strongest throwing arm (NFL Films QB-master Ron Jaworski has been quoted as such) and while he does rank among the top of the list there are 21 other quarterbacks that fired off higher MPHs than the Ravens’ passer during the various Combines. Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton (56 MPH) is repeatedly referred to as “noodle-armed” yet in measured velocity the maligned Bengal passer lines-up side-by-side with noted football slingers Cam Newton (56), Flacco (55) and Russell Wilson (55). Redskins backup Colt McCoy also falls into the misdiagnosis of a soft-tosser. McCoy hit 56 in a variation test, using a chip in a football rather than the usual radar gun method. Where Dalton, McCoy and others like them may come into question is their ability to muscle-up a pass deep downfield. Both passers have heaved their fair share of wobblers when the football travels 30-plus yards and while the in-flight beauty may be absent, the landing is still often getting to the mark; Dalton more-so than McCoy.

Former Rams’ and Cardinals’ great Kurt Warner didn’t spin the prettiest ball, but learned to optimize his mechanics,  utilized keen anticipation and possessing enough juice in his right arm to strike accurately and from practically anywhere on the gridiron. Jets’ 2013 freshman Geno Smith gets off a pass with the same velocity as Flacco and Seattle’s Russell Wilson, but he entered the NFL severely scrutinized about his true throwing power. About a third of Smith’s pass attempts at West Virginia in 2012 were at or behind the line of scrimmage; scheme or deficiency? We can answer that one with confidence thanks to knowing Smith’s radar readings at the Combine; 55 MPH puts Smith in the Flacco, Wilson, Newton, Dalton group. Even in the short passing schemes like the West Coast Offense or the rapid-fire Pistol attack, arm-strength is a plus. Passers need to “stick it” through the slightest of seams and openings in the pro game; a strong arm helps get it there.

There are more than a few throwing talents that did not participate in the velocity logging process at the Combine, for a variety of reasons. Some were unable due to injuries while others eschewed the testing to avoid confirmation of game tape observations leading to weak-armed labels. Yet others were advised not to throw at the Combine due to a lack familiarity with the receivers on hand; lack of chemistry often leads to poor performances and perceptions. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were non-participants for this very reason. Way back in 1983 John Elway refused to throw at the Combine, mostly because he had a bad knee and didn’t want the pro personnel eyes to notice. There was obviously no doubt about Elway’s ability to rip it and his draft stock never dipped. San Francisco’s reserve QB Matt Barkley did not give it a go at the Combine, blaming a shoulder injury. However, Barkley’s arm strength was already being questioned and going out to confirm the perception would have been a draft day killer for the highly touted former USC QB. The questions remain as his on-field work reveals floating passes to the outside and lack of zip in tight windows.

Scheme matters in the success of a QB’s development as much as arm talent. Sound coaching that coincides with the passer’s particular skill set goes a long way in transitioning a mostly raw college passer to a seasoned pro. However, neither scheme nor coaching can increase a passer’s true arm strength. Yes, coaching and learning proper mechanics can optimize the power a QB possesses, but the natural power a quarterback can generate is what it is. Fantasy footballers can benefit greatly in the long run by knowing exactly which quarterbacks are true power players and which ones are truly soft-ballers. If the arm fits the scheme, especially aggressive down-field playbooks, then the chances of gaining solid fantasy production are high. A late career Peyton Manning in a Bruce Arians type passing offense would not have produced the all-world numbers Manning experienced in 2013. Manning was terrific and would find ways to thrive in any format, but he’d surely struggle at times in a down-field focused attack. On the flip-side, Carson Palmer, whose vision and style is geared beyond the 0-9 yard range, could not produce close to the record numbers of Manning in the Denver frenetic, timing based short game. Again, understanding the true arm quality of a quarterback and the velocity a passer can muster help fan-ballers make sharp, educated choices at the QB position come draft day or game day.

At the 2017 NFL Combine QBs were “gunned” for velocity throwing for speed and to both sides of the field, left and right. Overall, the MPHs of 2017 are nothing less than previous recorded speeds, and a couple of the 2017 passing prospects impress. Many view the 2017 crop of QBs as an underwhelming lot, and the disappointing ball velocity numbers turned in by some (Deshaun Watson?) may have verified a portion of those negative opinions of this draft class. I am a tad suspicious about the mushy MPH results however. On tape, most of these pro QB prospects show plenty of arm and zip. Deshaun Watson’s 49 MPH would be among the lowest velocity efforts recorded since 2008 (Blake Sims owns that dubious mark at 42). IN live action Watson is clearly NOT a soft-tossing passer.

Pitt’s Nathan Peterman shows he can drive the football far above his “official” 53 MPH, able to make all the pro throws required. Hurricane QB Brad Kaaya isn’t a power passer, but his 53 MPH just doesn’t match the eye test in his game cut-ups, which shows him to possess more pop on his passes. Top 2017 QB prospect Mitchell Trubisky throws with accuracy and vigor from the pocket or on the move in his game film and the NFL Combine official manning the “gun” got a pretty accurate 55 MPH from the North Carolina QB. Baylor’s Seth Russell logged a 52, but he can spin a “faster” ball from what I see on tape. For 2017 at least, football fans and fantasy football talent diggers would be wise to consider the QB velocity results from the Combine with a bit of skepticism. This may not be the most polished group of collegiate throwers entering the draft, but there’s more arm talent here than popular “expert” opinion suggests. 

Visit John Cooney’s site PASS2win.com here.

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