Barriers to a Chiefs Super Bowl Repeat in 2020 – Last week I discussed the reasons why I thought the Kansas City Chiefs would repeat as Super Bowl Champions in 2020. Today I take a dive into the counter-argument: What are the biggest obstacles to the Chiefs achieving this goal? Answer: Nothing! Okay as much as I wish that were true, this is simply never the case in today’s NFL. Therefore, let’s discuss some of the possible hangups the Chiefs could face in the upcoming 2020 season.
Barrier I: The Pandemic Roadblock
First and foremost, the COVID-19 pandemic is absolutely the greatest obstacle that all NFL teams will need to overcome in order to have a season in the first place. It is going to be interesting to see how the NFL, team owners and executives handle this season. Are they going to try and move on with the season as is? Will we see NFL games with no fans? Or, will the season be shortened by a few weeks?
Almost every alternative puts the Chiefs at a disadvantage. No fans? Say goodbye to the home field advantage that comes along with all 142.2 decibels of the Arrowhead faithful. As far as what a shortened season could look like, I’ve heard rumors that the games which could be taken from the schedule could start with one of the two divisional matchups with each team in the division, shortening the schedule to 13 games. If this is something that the NFL considers, then the Chiefs would be at a major disadvantage for losing these particular games.
Kansas City’s dominance in the AFC West over the past few years has been quite enjoyable. However, if these were the games that get the axe from a shortened season, that’s three potential wins erased from the season. So, if any of these situations are put in place for the upcoming season, it is likely that the Chiefs have a slightly larger disadvantage than other teams due to the large home-field advantage and superiority in divisional play.
Barrier II: The Shrinking Bye
Now for the disadvantages that are a little more specific to the Chiefs. The NFL has decided to expand the playoffs from twelve teams to fourteen. This means that on Wild Card weekend twelve teams will play instead of the previous eight, and only ONE team from each conference gets a first round bye. The last time a team even made the Super Bowl that played on Wild Card weekend was the 2012 Baltimore Ravens. For the past seven years, both representatives in each Super Bowl had a first round bye. This advantage of a Playoff Bye Week in January is so palpable, it makes securing the number one overall seed in the AFC vastly more important than in years past. This means that each and every game in the regular season just carries that much more weight and importance under this new playoff format.
Barrier III: Tough Matchups
Now that we’ve established the importance of each individual regular season game, let’s take a look at a few tough matchups this year that could potentially stand in our way of that number one overall seed in the AFC and the easiest path to Super Bowl LV.
Week 3 at the Baltimore Ravens
The Lamar Jackson-led Baltimore Ravens have given the Chiefs some tough competition in the past couple seasons. The Chiefs linebacker core will need to step up big in this game in order to stop the dynamic run game of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, rookie J.K. Dobbins, and of course, Lamar Jackson. Keeping him contained is no easy task, but hopefully rookie linebacker Willie Gay Jr. can help keep Jackson contained. I like Gay’s sideline-to-sideline abilities to track the ball to really help out against quick scramblers, end-arounds, and outside runs, all of which the Ravens will use against us in week 3. This is the first time Mahomes and Jackson will face off in Baltimore, so I see this game going either way, but this could easily be a game in which the Chiefs take a loss (although I still like to think we have what it takes to run the table next year, that is just so statistically unlikely).
Week 15 at the New Orleans Saints
This game could be viewed as the Super Bowl that never happened from the 2018-2019 season, when both teams lost in their respective conference championship games in controversial fashion. The Saints are constant contenders, and this game as late in the season as it is could have some very serious playoff implications for both teams. If we are playing in front of fans at this point in the season, we are going to have to deal with a rowdy crowd and a potent offense. The Saints’ defense has improved a lot over the past couple years so everyone will have to play this game like its a playoff game to escape New Orleans with a victory. This game could come down to a crazy special teams play or that lucky tip or deflection that leads to a turnover. Both teams are very evenly matched and are considered at the top of the list to reach Super Bowl LV. I expect for this game to match the intensity of the San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints game last season that came down to the final play of the game, it could go either way.
Week 6 at the Buffalo Bills
I like the Bills chances of finally topping the New England Patriots in the AFC East, and I think they are going to be looking at this game as a chance to really step up and gain the respect of the rest of the AFC. Although I don’t really see the Chiefs losing this game on Thursday Night Football, it almost always seems like we lose one game a year that we probably shouldn’t have lost. The Bills have the defensive personnel in place to give the Chiefs offense a headache, so we will have to play a lot better than we did against the Colts last year, for example (a 19-13 loss), if we want to escape Buffalo with a victory.
Week 7 and/or Week 13 vs the Denver Broncos
If there is one team in our division that can keep the Chiefs from sweeping the AFC West yet again, it’s the Denver Broncos. Their defense is getting stronger ever since their regression after the 2015 season, and they have a new quarterback who won them four of their last five games (with that lone loss coming from a snowy blowout at Arrowhead). The verdict is still out on the University of Missouri product Drew Lock, but I think he has what it takes to be a decent NFL quarterback, and as much as it pains me to say, John Elway has done a pretty decent job of building a solid offense around him. They added two wide receivers, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, and Mizzou tight end Albert Okwuegbunam who played with Lock at Mizzou so you know they are going to have an instant connection on the field. With as improved as the Broncos are from just a year ago, I still am not sure they can beat the Chiefs, but again, it always seems like we drop one or two games a year that we probably shouldn’t, and I think the Broncos could be one of those teams this year.
Week 12 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are reunited again in Florida, under coach Bruce Arians. Brady’s move to Tampa Bay was the biggest storyline not related to COVID-19 this offseason, and deservedly so. As little as I like Tom Brady and the dynasty he helped lead with the Patriots, I can’t sit here and pretend that he isn’t the most accomplished quarterback to ever play the game …so far. Brady joined a team with possibly the best wide receiver duo in the NFL in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Add Rob Gronkowski into the mix and Brady has probably the best offense around him since he had Randy Moss, threw for 50 touchdowns, and made it to the Super Bowl with an 18-0 record in 2007. As much as I wish we could play the Bucs earlier in the year so they haven’t had as much time to get used to their new personnel and system, we have to wait until week 12. The biggest upside to this is our bye week is in week 10 this year, so we should hopefully be well rested for this game. Either way, this is another game I could see as being a potential problem during the regular season.
Summary: The Barriers
Of course, there are other teams that could surprise everyone by beating the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs during the regular season: the Patriots, Texans, heck, maybe even the Raiders or Chargers steal a game. As unlikely as that may, or may not be, the teams above are the ones I view as being the most likely to pull off the feat. The above five teams account for six of the sixteen regular season games next season. If we lose half of these games that puts us at 13-3, one more slip up and we are at 12-4. Last year, both of these records still would have resulted in the Chiefs playing on Wild Card weekend under the new postseason structure. This new fourteen team layout is seriously going to make it difficult to secure a first round bye.
I am absolutely not saying that if we don’t secure the number one seed in the AFC then we won’t win back-to-back Super Bowls, I mean, we still have Patrick Mahomes the last time I checked. However, the road to Tampa, Florida — host city for Super Bowl LV — will be much easier with that extra Playoff Bye week in January. As I hope most of you reading this already know, my expectations for this season are high — see my article from last week “The Chiefs Defense Will Be Even Better in 2020” on why I believe Kansas City WILL WIN their third Lombardi. However, I believe these are the biggest obstacles which stand in our way of achieving back-to-back Super Bowl Championships.
That being said… let the dynasty begin!
David Beck — ArrowheadOne
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