Best In The West: Mahomes vs Philip Rivers

The Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes start against the Denver Broncos was undeniably impressive. Even so, more than a few people have discounted it because it happened against back-ups. This is especially true for Philip Rivers apologists, who still wish to label him the best QB in the AFC West. This caused me to recall Rivers’ week 17 match-up against the Chiefs back-up defense in 2013. A comparison of the two games yields a clear winner, in the QB department. Take a look.

Final Score 27-24: Rivers threw three touchdowns to Mahomes’ zero. While that might matter to fantasy football owners, it really doesn’t mean anything, in terms of comparing the two. Both were able lead their teams to the same score. At the end of the day, a one yard run from Anthony Sherman is as good as a four yard catch from Antonio Gates.

Number of Drives: Both Mahomes and Rivers had 11 drives to work with. This is convenient, because it makes their final stats easy to compare, without adjustment.

Starters Out, On Opposing Defense: For both games, I looked at defensive starters who averaged over 60% of snaps, on the year. I considered any starter to be rested who logged a percentage of snap counts, at least 20% lower, than his annual average. Rivers had a clear advantage here, over Mahomes, as he was facing a Chiefs’ defense down seven starters. Denver’s D was down a mere four starters.

Chiefs (7) Broncos (4)

• Eric Berry Darian Stewart
• Derrick Johnson Chris Harris
• Sean Smith Aqib Talib
• Dontari Poe Justin Simmons
• Tamba Hali
• Brandon Flowers
• Justin Houston

Passing Stats: Rivers completed 22 of 33 passes for 229 yards, 3 TD, and 1 INT. He was sacked three times, and had a QBR of 55.6. Mahomes completed 22 of 35 passes for 284 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. He was sacked sacked twice and had a QBR of 58.2. Touchdowns aside, Mahomes had a slightly more impressive outing. What’s more, he was able to do so while playing with back-ups, where Rivers had his normal starting lineup.

Conclusion: Mahomes is the clear winner. He faced a tougher defense, with less support, and produced more yards. Despite having an inferior OL, Mahomes was sacked less than Rivers, due to his mobility and ability to make off-platform throws. The one area, where Rivers led Mahomes is touchdowns. Since football is a team sport, that’s a largely cosmetic accomplishment, as both offenses yeilded the same point total.

Bonus Point: In 2013, Rivers threw for 4,478 yards with a 69.5% completion rate. Are those reasonable expectations for a 2^nd year QB, in his first year as a starter? Not really. However, the fact that Mahomes out-performed a QB, of that caliber, in his first start, is undeniably impressive. Any attempt by Chargers or Broncos fans to qualify that is purely based on jealousy. It’s fair to wonder if Mahomes can carry this level of performance through a whole season, but attempts to diminish what he accomplished, in Denver, are based in feelings, not facts. Go Chiefs.

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