Chief Concerns: Drafting Tendencies

Chief Concerns: Drafting Tendencies

Ransom Hawthorne

When it comes to the draft, there are two types of analysis that go on. Some people simply try to analyze the players in the draft to predict their success, others try to predict where those players will actually go and how teams will actually behave. Most of the off-season will probably be devoted to player analysis, but I wanted to take a look, first, at what to expect from the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs general manager, John Dorsey, claims to draft the “best player available (BPA)” and there’s been some debate among fans as to how truthful this is. Certainly, the Chiefs have drafted some players who fell in the draft (like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce), which seems to validate Dorsey’s claim, but they’ve also seemed to reach on positions of need at times (like Mitch Morse and KieVarae Russel). I can’t honestly tell you for sure how rigidly the Chiefs stick to the BPA, but there are two things we can be pretty sure about.

Next Man Up

For Kansas City, next man up isn’t just an in-season saying, it’s also an approach to the draft. Each year, K.C.’s first round pick has been an obvious replacement for a player who was a free agent the following year. Fisher replaced Brandon Albert, Ford was insurance in Houston negotiations (and meant to eventually replace Hali), Marcus Peters replaced Sean Smith and Chris Jones being drafted in a contract year for Poe wasn’t much of a surprise to Chiefs fans either. Here is a list of Chiefs 2018 free agents from Spotrac.com:

RB Jamaal Charles

DT Jaye Howard

P Dustin Colquitt

ILB Josh Mauga

FB Anthony Sherman

QB Nick Foles

QB Tyler Bray

CB Philip Gaines

WR DeAnthony Thomas

OG Zach Fulton

OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif

CB Kenneth Acker

If the Chiefs stay true to form, the most likely choice for a first round pick would be a: RB, DT, QB or G. ILB and CB are also possibilities. I wanted to go beyond the Chiefs first round tendencies though. I wanted some gauge what to expect in the later rounds, where they’ve been much less predictable. To do this, I used something called a trade value chart.

Trade Value Charts

are used by teams and analysts to determine what fair compensation is for teams moving up or down in the draft. I took every draft pick Dorsey has made with the Chiefs and looked up the point value of their draft position using the trade value chart from NBC sports. I then added those points and categorized them by position. I also included the two second round picks that Chiefs traded for Alex Smith in the QB category, since they did technically spend draft resources on him, even though it wasn’t in the draft. So, the Kansas City Chiefs order of draft priority is (determined by the described method),

1. Oline

2. CB

3. QB

4. OLB

5. Dline

6. WR

7. TE

8. ILB

9. S

10. RB

11. FB

Here’s a graph to illustrate the respective points spent at each position:

I must admit, I was a little surprised by the results, but in retrospect, they make sense. Oline may be skewed a bit by the fact that Eric Fisher was the first overall pick, but the fact remains that Chiefs have drafted five Offensive Linemen in four years. It’s been easy to see that the Chiefs put a huge emphasis on CB. The emphasis on QB has been less obvious, but K.C. has kinda drafted three of them if you count Smith. The tiny sliver on the chart that’s barely perceived by the naked eye, tells you how often they draft FBs, not very. The Chiefs top five priorities all represent positions that tend to have higher cap hits. Cheaper positions like ILB, RB, and S tend to get addressed through free agency.

That’s all great, but how do you use that data? Use a draft prospect ranking or big board. Taking the assumption that Chiefs draft BPA, look at the position the Chiefs are drafting, then look at the five picks immediately preceding it. Assuming the big board is fairly accurate (which is rare anyway, but work with me here) Chiefs should draft one of those players. This represents the fact that Chiefs are going for the best value and other teams will have reached for need, somebody always falls through the cracks. Next, look at those players, which ones would represent replacements for 2018 free agents? Of those, which is highest on Chiefs draft priority list. I used CBS’s big board, along with Chiefs projected compensatory picks from Fanspeak to generate this predicted Mock draft for the Chiefs (I used a certain amount of common sense as well, strictly by the formula, Chiefs would draft OT Roderick Johnson in the 2^nd round, something they’d be unlikely to do since they already have bookend starters at OT, I also tried to avoid two picks at the same position):

1. CB Cordrea Tankersly 6’1” 195lbs Clemson

2. OLB Ryan Anderson 6’2” 253lbs Alabama

3.OG David Sharpe 6’5” 357lbs Florida

3.2.DT Jarron Jones 6’5” 315lbs Notre Dame

4.QB Nathan Peterman 6’2” 225lbs Pitt

5.TE Eric Saubert 6’5” 247lbs Drake

5.2 WR Darreous Rogers 6’1” 215lbs USC

6.RB Aaron Jones 5’10” 205lbs Texas-El Paso

6.2 S Xavier Woods 5’11” 203lbs Louisiana Tech

7.OT Jonathan McLaughlin 6’4” 293lbs Virginia Tech

As with most formulas, you have to play with it a little bit. When doing a mock draft this way, if you see a player you like, it’s ok to break the rules to go get him, that’s something Chiefs probably, do considering picks like Mitch Morse. Predicting how NFL teams will draft is pretty tough, so if you get even one or two guys right, pat yourself on the back. For ease of drafting, if you want to try this formula, Chiefs picks fall at 27, 59, 91, 104, 131, 171, 179, 217, 219, and 248. Happy mock draft season! Go Chiefs.

Bonus Thought

With both Foles and Bray scheduled to be free agents in 2018, expect one of them to be extended relatively soon unless Chiefs draft a QB or sign one in free agency.

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