Chiefs 2020 Offensive Growth Potential – The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the obvious favorites heading into the 2020 NFL season. However, they have plenty of room to grow. Even Super Bowl MVP, Patrick Mahomes, can get better, and that should scare the gee willikers out of every other team. First, we need to rate each of these Chiefs and then I’ll explore the potential for growth at each position.
Late Night News Flash: the Chiefs signed LG Kelechi Osemele last night. Per Ian Rapoport, “The Chiefs are giving OL Kelechi Osemele a 1-year deal worth $2M max. After a truncated year with the #Jets, he’s healthy and fills the void left by Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who opted out.”
More on Osemele later.
Quarterback
Rating: 94
Although Patrick Mahomes is the crème-de-la-crème of signal callers in the NFL right now, he was much better in 2018 than 2019. Injury or no injury. Super Bowl MVP or not.
Growth Potential
He still has at last five points ahead of him to improve. I realize many will think this score is too low for Mahomes but this is coming from an ex-teacher who doesn’t believe in perfect scores… please keep that in mind. Consider that he’s entering just his third year as a starter and Mahomes says he can get better as well.
Matt Moore and Chad Henne will never be confused with one of the best QBs in the league so, if the Chiefs can’t keep Mahomes healthy, this position would get a huge downgrade in potential. Jordan Ta’amu should be considered a practice player only.
Fullback
Rating: 89
Anthony Sherman is one of the best Fullbacks in the league and has been ever since he came to K.C. in 2013.
Growth Potential: 87
Sherm made the Pro Bowl in 2018 but, he’s not Hall of Fame material. While he ranks high among the league’s best, he has plenty of room to grow. However, as a 31 year old FB, his potential is likely tapped out. The versatile John Lovett looks like the eventual successor to the Sausage but at 6-3, 225, he’s not big enough to play TE and perhaps not stout enough to play FB and he’s certainly not going to get reps at QB where he played most of the time at Princeton. Last year, his season ended before it began when he separated a shoulder in the first preseason game of 2019. The bigger issue is: an injury like that is problematic for a FB.
Running Back
Rating: 79
Damien Williams was excellent in the playoffs, but played in less than 35% of the offensive snaps during the regular season. The Chiefs rushing attack was ranked 22nd in the league in 2019. Plenty of room for improvement.
Growth Potential
The running back position has a ceiling in the high 80s this year (maybe more next season) if first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire balls out. Even if he is the next Brian Westbrook, let’s not forget that Westbrook rushed for 193 yards his rookie year and it wasn’t until his 5th season that he broke the one-thousand yards rushing barrier. Still, Reid is quicker to utilize his rookies these days and even if DWill and CEH split the snaps evenly this season, the ground game should be much better. The big competition comes for the 3rd and 4th RB positions. There’s a logjam here with a bunch of players trying to make an impact:
- Darrel Williams – finished the year on IR so were waiting to see how he rebounds. Darrel may gain favor for staying on the roster by mentoring fellow LSU alum, CEH.
- Darwin Thompson – a disappointing rookie year has him in the position to be cut if he can’t show immediately that he’s mastered protection and at 5-8, 200 lbs., not matter how juiced up his body gets, that’s a big, “I doubt it.”
- DeAndre Washington – at 5-8, 210, he may not be any better in protection than DTrain, but he played with PMII at Texas Tech so that familiarity could give him an inside track. I like his tape and my guess is he’ll get the nod over Thompson.
- Elijah McGuire – McGuire has had his moments in his short career but there are too many other RBs in his way here.
Tight End
Rating: 93
Travis Kelce has been the standard for consistency and production at tight end in the NFL for more than 3 seasons.
Growth Potential
While the addition of Ricky Seals-Jones is a boost to the possibility that Reid could run multiple tight end sets more. A TE that give K.C. someone beside Kelce as a threat could end up having more impact this year than Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the running game. I don’t want to count those chickens before they’ve hatched but Seals-Jones has averaged 40 catches per year and 258 receiving yards per season in his first 3 years. While that sounds like very little, remember Demetrius Harris averaged just 11.4 catches per year and 121 receiving yards. If Seals-Jones maintains his current output level he would nearly quadruple the production of Demetrius Harris in catches. That kind of possibility at TE could be turn an already terrific offense into an unstoppable rocket.
Deon Yelder was as good as Blake Bell (8 catches) in my mind so keeping him to block is a plus… because his 3 catches in 2019 aren’t scaring anyone.
Wide Receiver #1
Rating: 91
Tyreek Hill has been getting a lot of press the offseason as the best WR in the NFL. I’m okay with one of the top five and his #91 should is appropriate for someone rated as high as he is. It’s a given that he is the most dangerous WR in the league and he possesses one skill no team can prepare for: speed, pure speed.
Growth Potential
While Tyreek Hill is a scary good WR, there are things he can improve upon, which makes him even sacrier. The potential for growth here comes at the other WR positions.
Wide Receiver #2
Rating: 71
Sammy Watkins had 52 receptions for 673 yards and 3 TD total, in 14 regular games. Yikes.
Growth Potential
That production is less than: 4 catches and 49 yards per game. He may have restructured his contract to stay with the Chiefs this year so he could help #runitback, but those regular season numbers just don’t cut it for a #2WR. Plus, those numbers are better than his 2018 output. The best path for the Chiefs to make it to another Super Bowl is by winning a first round Bye in the playoffs and that means winning the regular season in the AFC. That will take Sammy Watkins looking more like the playoff Sammy Watkins of last season when he made one timely clutch catch after another.
Wide Receiver #3
Rating: 74
Mecole Hardman did better than expected in this rookie season (strictly referring to his contribution as a WR and not as a kick returner).
Growth Potential
It’s the 26 catches Hardman needs to improve upon and not his total yardage: 538. That’s better than a 20 yards per reception average.
Wide Receivers #4
Rating: 72
Demarcus Robinson is in the right spot at the right time when Patrick Mahomes needs him and a play breaks down. Plus, Byron Pringle has become a dependable 5th option.
Growth Potential
Demarcus Robinson is in a contract year and should produce more than the 32 catches he had last year. He’ll have ot do that if he hopes to sign a larger deal like Albert Wilson did with Miami (3 years for $24M). Byron Pringle appears ready to step up and take snaps from DRob if he can get them. Beyond these two, others are ready to challenge: Gehrig Dieter, Jody Fortson, plus a stellar list of UDFAs Kalija Lipscomb, Maurice Ffrench, Andre Baccellia, Justice Shelton-Mosley, and Cody White.
Left Tackle
Rating: 74
Eric Fisher is an average — sometimes better — left tackle, who has made one Pro Bowl: in 2018.
Growth Potential
Fisher could have a resurgent year but at the age of 29 his career may have already reached its zenith. Rookie Lucas Niang could be the LT of the future but will likely have to wait his turn unless Fisher is injured: knock on wood. For now, the Chiefs are much better off with Fisher in place and Niang could end up at RT eventually anyway (his natural position).
Niang did not allow a sack in his 27 starts for TCU and Chase Young — the 2nd pick in this year’s draft — said Niang was the best OL he faced in college. Future looks bright for one of the Tackle positions for K.C..
Right Tackle
Rating: 91
Mitchell Schwartz is one of — if not “the” — best Right Tackle in the NFL. Just ask Von MIller.
“Mitchell is a great player, and I have a lot of respect for him. He’s the best right tackle in the AFC West. It’s always a good matchup. He’s athletic, and he’s strong. He’s got everything you want.”
Growth Potential
Schwartz just turned 31 last month but his performance level hasn’t fallen off at all. With Lucas Niang waiting in the wings, the RT position appears to be set for the next decade. That should make Patrick Mahomes very happy.
Left Guard
Rating: 78
Kelechi Osemele
Newly signed Osemele gets the benefit of the doubt here. He’s been to two Pro Bowls and was All-Pro in one of those plus he won a Super Bowl so, he has that experience to add as well. He was also a top 100 player in 2017 at #95. See “The Best of Kelechi Osemele” below.
Growth Potential
The Chiefs would not have signed Osemele if they thought that the guys they have in house could take care of business. However, when you can sign a Pro Bowl level LG, you do it. The Chiefs OL is much better this year just for having signed Osemele.
Right Guard
Rating: 69
Andrew Wylie, Nick Allegretti, Mike Remmers, Martinas Rankin, Greg Senat, or maybe even Lucas Niang… take your pick. In any event, we don’t really know how this position will be covered.
I’m not perfectly sure whether or not Osemele will fill in for LDT at RG or slot into the LG position. The important point is: the Chiefs will still have one interior Guard position to fill.
Growth Potential
With the addition of Kelechi Osemele, he should be slotted in at LG which is his natural position. That leaves the vacated RG position left by Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opting out for the season to help Covid patients (he’s my hero!). The position is wide open but the coaches will have their pick of any offensive lineman on the roster not named, Eric, Mitchell or Kelechi. The only problem with this position being a question mark… is the biggest question mark on the offensive line: Center.
Offensive Center
Rating: 59
Austin Reiter was not very good in 2019. Sure he was there to help win the Super Bowl but, he hasn’t nearly measured up to either Mitch Morse or Rodney Hudson, the Chiefs two previous Centers.
Growth Potential
I get the feeling the Chiefs were stuck with him at Center… as opposed to finding a really quality replacement for Morse. Reiter has moved around — a little bit — in his professional career. Here are his movements over the past five seasons:
Athlon Sports ranked the top 20 Offensive Linemen for each position heading into the 2020 season and Austin Reiter did not make their list. At all. He clearly is not a top 20 talent and is likely the least skilled player on the Chiefs OL, if not the whole roster. Of note: Rodney Hudson was ranked #1 and Mitch Morse was ranked #5 among the Centers.
Nick Allegretti may be the next great Chiefs Offensive Center. One can only hope. I doubt that 6-2, 304, UDFA Center, Darryl Williams, out of Mississippi State, is the answer.
Offensive Growth Potential: Summary
Here’s a circle graph showing the rankings I gave to each position covered today.
This reveals a legitimate weakness up the middle of the Chiefs offense. I’m not sure how the Chiefs brass can continue to justify placing their star QB behind one of the worst Centers in the league? If I was a defensive coordinator for another team, I’d blitz the middle of the Chiefs OL all day long, every day, and twice as often as normal, on any given Sunday.
I’ll take a look at the Defensive Growth Potential for 2020 this week as well.
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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