Chiefs 2021 Home Opener OPEN THREAD

By Shawn Sorter and Laddie Morse

The Kansas City Chiefs 2021 season will get under way today at 3:25 PM CDT at GEHA Field in Arrowhead Stadium right here in Kansas City. Both Shawn Sorter and I will take turns in this piece bringing you our insights into this game. Shawn is up first.

Baker Versus the Dozen

As we prepare for today’s much anticipated game at Arrowhead between the Browns and our Chiefs I think back to a previous time that these two quarterbacks had met. It was October of 2016 in Texas. A much better Oklahoma team got all they could handle from Texas Tech. Or more precisely they got all they could handle from Patrick Mahomes. Oklahoma won the game 66-59 (Oklahoma beat Texas Tech and Mahomes the year before that, 63-to-27, which was actually the first time they ever met). In 2016, they set an FBS record 1,708 yards of offense. The QB’s combined for 1,279 passing yards, also a record. Patrick was 52-of-88 for an insane 734 yards and 5 touchdowns (eighty-eight passes in a single game!). Baker was 27-of-36 for 545 yards and 7 touchdowns. Back then people believed that Baker would be the better NFL quarterback. We know today, that this could not be further from the truth. What might have happened in that game had the 2 QB’s been on opposite sides? An Oklahoma drubbing of Tech most likely.

So, as we look at today’s matchup a few thoughts come to mind. First, many “experts” believe the Browns are a better roster top to bottom. Most still give K.C. the edge because of the Mahomes factor, but the Browns seem to be everyone’s darling team this year. I’ll talk more about that in a future piece, about how I don’t even see the Browns winning their own division. Let’s talk a bit about the reason I have the Chiefs winning the game 37-24.

Slow Starters – It’s true that these are not your fathers Cleveland Browns, but do you know how many times the Browns have won on opening day since they came back into the league in 1999? One. They have won once on opening day. It was 2004 and Jeff Garcia was their QB. They beat the Ravens. They clearly don’t have a history as a fast starting team.
Full Meal Deal with Mahomes – In last January’s playoff game between these two teams, the Chiefs were up 19-3 and likely cruising to a blowout win until Patrick Mahomes got hurt. The final score was 22-17 and Chad Henne was able to finish things off. Baker had his chances late and did not capitalize. Do we really think with a healthy Mahomes that the result will be any different this time?
Most Improved? –> Chiefs – It’s true the Browns defense may be improved. A big name was added in Clowney on the defensive line, but I’d argue their line is actually weaker than it was last year. Where they are better is the secondary with some draft picks and some free agent acquisitions that will likely make them have more success back there, but the Chiefs are better as well. And if I were arguing which team improved more I’d say the Chiefs. Their one glaring weakness being an injured and below average offensive line has been totally overhauled. If the Chiefs can get any semblance of a running game does anyone really think the Browns will slow them down?
OBJ Help or Hurt? – OBJ is back. He’s flashy, He makes highlight reel catches. However, the fact remains for some odd reason that the Browns do not play as well with him in the lineup. Maybe he demands the ball too much and they go away from the ground game which makes them special. Perhaps it’s a chemistry issue. Whatever the reason OBJ being back out there may be the opposite of addition by subtraction.
You’ve Got a Trend In Me – Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have been together for 4 years now. In that time their record in September has been 10-0. They start hot, and they mostly stay hot after that. Patrick has led the Chiefs to an average of 34.4 points per game in September. He has averaged 330 passing yards per game and thrown 32 touchdowns. His passer rating is 124.4 In 10 September games and he’s never thrown an interception. I don’t see any reason for this trend to stop.
142.2 dbA Effect – The last time the Browns came to Arrowhead the crowd noise was not much of a factor due to Covid. Imagine them coming in, opening day, full capacity crowd, Baker has never experienced the noise he will face today.

My Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 37, Browns 24 – Shawn Sorter

More on Reid’s September Record

So much of what Shawn is saying hits the nail right on the head. Take Andy Reid’s record in September for example. Since he became a head coach in the NFL in 1999, he has a .786 winning percentage in September as Chiefs HC. Plus a .933 winning percentage over the past 5 years. Here’s what that actually looks like:

We all know Andy Reid has a stellar record when he has extra time to prepare, another good omen.

Chiefs v Browns – The Chiefs have beaten the Browns the last four straight times they’ve faced them and the Browns haven’t beaten the Chiefs since the 2-and-14 season of 2012, the year before Andy Reid became the Head Coach.

All of that is in the past now, and I’m sure that’s what the Browns will be thinking as they take the field versus the Chiefs today. In any case, if the Chiefs are the Chiefs today, there may not be any team in the NFL who can beat them.

What’s not in the past, is Patrick Mahomes. He’s not only the face of the NFL now but he’s putting up unfathomable numbers:

Matchup to Watch on Defense

Whoever Chris Jones — #95 — goes against, and where ever he lines up, it’s going to be a mismatch. If Baker Mayfield doesn’t get the ball out of his hand in 2.0 seconds or less, the Browns may end up having a long day, and a happy day for CJ and Chiefs Kingdom. Remember, for every sack CJ gets, you can get a free second Big Mac the next day at McDonald’s.

Matchup to Watch on Offense

Orlando Brown said recently of Myles Garrett, the Browns elite DE, “He’s one of the few that can handle my punch and recover.” The problem is, Garrett will likely be lined up across from Lucas Niang all game long. #67 vs. #95. A battle to keep an eye one.

ESPN’s FPI

ESPN has the FPI (Football Power Index ) which, “is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season”… and is, “based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.” I guess that’s why we play the games. The Chiefs finished 1st after 10,000 simulations. Me likey. Here are the top ten teams in the FPI.

Arrowhead’s Tangible Advantage

Arrowhead Stadium, @ GEHA Field… hasn’t been packed to the brim since January of 2020 and the idea of getting 76,416+ (capacity) screaming beaming Chiefs starved Kingdom maniacs bouncing off of each other, it’s hard not to imagine the Chiefs players getting chills long before they hit the tunnel.

Is it game time yet? I can’t wait!

My Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 35, Browns 17. – Laddie Morse

Arrowhead Stadium Weather Report

Game Preview: Matt McMullen/Peter Schrager

Shawn Sorter and Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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