Kansas City Chiefs Paul Pulley

Chiefs: 50 Touchdowns and 5,000 Yards

LadnerMorse July 12, 2019 No Comments Gallery

Chiefs: 50 Touchdowns and 5,000 Yards – Can Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II become the first QB in NFL history to throw for 50 touchdowns in a season, twice?  Can Patrick Mahomes II be only the second QB in NFL history to throw for over 5000 yards per season in multiple seasons?

A little more than a year ago, I wrote an article in which I predicted Mahomes would pass for 4,400 yards and 32 touchdowns. That was one of the most optimistic predictions for his inaugural season. Little did we know. Now I’ll ask, can he do it again?

The 50 Touchdowns

Let’s first look at touchdowns and see where that production can come from in 2019. Mahomes threw touchdown passes to 12 different receivers last year, unfortunately, 5 of them are no longer with the Chiefs and a sixth player could possibly miss some games.

The five receivers no longer with the team caught 17 of Mahomes 50 TDs last season. Those players and their receiving touchdowns were:

  • Kareem Hunt; 7 TDs
  • Chris Conley; 5 TDs
  • Demetrius Harris; 3 TDs
  • De’Anthony Thomas; 1 TD
  • Charcandrick West; 1 TD

That’s a third of the scoring that will have to come from different sources. So, who can be the recipient of all of these TD passes?

Let’s start with Sammy Watkins. In an article I wrote a while back, I stated that I believe Watkins will have a career year in his second season in coach Reid’s offense and that he would have over 1200 yards and 12 TD’s, so I’m going to stick with those numbers for Watkins.

Travis Kelce is Mahomes go to guy and Kelce finished the 2018 season with 10 TDs. I have a feeling Kelce’s ankle was bothering him quite a bit last year and he will be in better shape and playing even faster this season and his production could actually go up, but for now I’ll assume his TD number remains static and that he ends up with 10.

Damien Williams will be the Chiefs starting running back in 2019. Williams scored 2 receiving touchdowns in 2018 while starting only 3 games. Kareem Hunt, who began 2018 as the starting RB, scored 7 receiving TDs in 11 games. While Williams is a different runner than Hunt, I believe he is a better receiver and once the ball is in his hands, he is faster and more elusive. I want to say that Williams will have 10 receiving TDs, but i’ll temper my expectations and go with 8.

While I believe Tyreek Hill is going to miss some games in 2019, how many, if any, is still a mystery. Worst case scenario would be that Hill is suspended for the entire season. I don’t believe that will be the case, but let’s say that his production is halved from 2018, that would leave Hill scoring 6 touchdowns through the air.

The Chiefs apparently don’t think their second tight end position is in as dire straights as some of us do. Even so, we might see the Chiefs using more 11 personnel, which means three wide receivers on the field more often. With Chris Conley gone and Hill likely to miss some games, Demarcus Robinson should see his snap counts sky rocket early in 2019. DRob had 4 TDs last year, with one in each of the final three regular season games. Robinson also seems to get himself open when Mahomes is scrambling, but I’ll stay reserved and go with 6 TDs for DRob.

Two returning players that scored TDs last year are Anthony Sherman and Darrel Williams with one each, if they repeat those scores, then at this time we have a total of 44 passing touchdowns.

There will be at least one more tight end on the roster that will see playing time, and that player could be good for at least one TD. Assuming Hill will miss some games and that the Chiefs use 3 wide receiver sets, other players are going to get plenty of playing time.

Whether it’s Byron Pringle, Gehrig Dieter, Marcus Kemp, rookie Mecole Hardman, some other player, or probably a combination of these, they will have opportunities to score.

If Hardman is as fast as advertised, he could have a couple touchdowns from a shovel pass on jet sweeps. A total of 6 receiving touchdowns from these role players would be required for Mahomes to reach 50.

Passing for 40 or more touchdowns in a season has only been done 13 times in the NFL by 9 different quarterbacks. Passing for at least 50 has only been accomplished 3 times, whether or not Mahomes can repeat this feat will be fun to watch.

The 5,000 Passing Yards

A quarterback passing for 5,000 or more yards in a season, while I believe will become more commonplace in the near future, is still quite rare. In 2018, Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes became just the 6th and 7th NFL quarterbacks to accomplish this milestone. 

Using my premise that Watkins will surpass 1,200 receiving yards and that Kelce will equal his production from last season, those two combined would account for over half, or more than 2,500 yards.

 

If we assume Hill’s production is halved, but Robinson’s is almost doubled, these two combined would account for another 1,300 plus yards.

Last season, the running backs all combined for about 950 receiving yards. I’m not sure this years contingent can match those numbers, but they should come close.

That would leave roughly 300-400 yards to be earned from the back up tight ends and other wide receivers, something that should be doable.

 

Will 5,000 Yards and/or 50 Touchdowns Happen

So many things can influence the stats of any given game, especially the yards available for the offense to move the ball. Special teams can play a huge role in starting field position for almost each and every drive.

According to footballoutsiders.com, the average number of drives per team for the 2018 season was 174. The Chiefs were one of the fewest at 163. I’m sure that was due in part to both the offense keeping the ball and scoring, but also the defense not able to get off the field.

The New Orleans Saints had the fewest number of offensive drives in 2018, with 155. In comparison, although scored in different ways, the Saints had 59 total offensive touchdowns compared to the Chiefs 66. So there are plenty of opportunities for teams to score, it’s just a matter of having the right personnel on offense to get the job done. 

Mahomes has stated that some of the things he has worked on this offseason, is his tendencies to go for the long ball so much. He wants to play ‘smarter’ and take the easier completion to keep the offense on the field and keep the chains moving. Dustin Colquitt punted 45 times last season, The Saints and the Los Angeles Rams were the only teams to punt less. I believe if Mahomes has his way, Colquitt won’t be seeing much time on the field except as a holder for field goal attempts, and those might be rare.

I’m not going to be expecting a repeat of the 5,000+ yards and 50+ touchdowns in 2019, but it sure wouldn’t surprise me if it happens.

Paul Pulley — ArrowheadOne

 

 

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