Chiefs: A Reinvigorated Draft Assessment

Page One: Setting the Stage for Roster Assessment
Make no bones about it, I think Brett Veach is again become the Maestro of GMs in the NFL. No doubt in my mind. He’s not been perfect but has been masterful, willing to move on from mistakes and has grown in his ability to avoid pitfalls. In a preseason in which: prospect’s workouts, Pro-days, the difficulties the draft presents, the potential threat to rookie camp/training camp/pre-season… Veach has navigated it all and succeeded in retaining the players from the previous roster which is extremely important as the team hopes to repeat a Super Bowl appearance. Give him his props: #RUNITBACK Brett Veach! Thus… Chiefs: a reinvigorated draft assessment!

Veach: The Roster Boss

Nick Jacobs posted a view of the returning roster from the playoffs and it is only missing 2 starters: LG Stefan Wisniewski and LB Reggie Ragland, although I regard CB Kendall Fuller to be a starter as well. If you see this as a high positive then you are correctly understand what Brett Veach has accomplished by retaining the Chiefs top players and his latest retention was the signing of CB Bashaud Breeland to an economical $4M+ for a single year. It appears to me that Veach is very cautious about long term contracts and probably learned a huge lesson from the Anthony Hitchens deal.

Getting Breeland back is a huge relief plus the addition of Antonio Hamilton brings depth to the CB group.

Another such rendition is signing TE Ricky Seals-Jones. He’s an experienced TE with a ceiling that could be the addition of another receiver for Patrick Mahomes plus this signing adds depth at the position behind Travis Kelce. You cannot argue against this addition for how it fits.

When Veach signed RB Deandre Washington, the Chiefs have added a top speed type back (4.49 – 40 yard dash) who also is a very good receiver. This solidifies the RB room and reduces a need to draft a RB.

Brett Veach also signed OL Mike Remmers. It may be just the overall experience of a long term vet, he could be earmarked for the SW/T role or even to give competition for the young guys at OG. Still, a solid addition and it at least replaces the loss of Stefan Wisniewski.

Wide Receivers? Veach extended Demarcus Robinson and reworked the Watkins contract. The top 5 WR’s of 2019 return for 2020 with more in the wings such as Gehrig Dieter.

QB Jordan Ta’amu was added to the mix. The Chiefs made a decision to retain Chad Henne as the #2 QB as Matt Moore departs (thank you for your service, sir!). Ta’amu will challenge Shurmur but also will provide an added value: his play is very similar to that of Pat Mahomes and he will also be able to emulate highly mobile athletes such as Prescott, Wilson, Jackson and Watson in game prep each week.

I love the retention of DT Mike Pennel whose play totally suited the inside run stopping needs of the Chiefs front four in 2019. Others returning are:

• FB Anthony Sherman
• TE Deon Yelder
• CB Keith Reaser
• LB Damien Wilson

Departing Players
Kendall Fuller who rotated between Corner and Safety is gone. DE Emmanuel Ogbah will provide solid play in his new home and I think his departure is sad. However, Breeland Speaks returns from injury in 2020. I very much wanted to retain Stefan Wisniewski but he went home to Pittsburgh and was ostensibly replaced by Remmers. Reggie Ragland has moved on. It’s worse than you might realize but Rags is gone.  

Turning the Page: Cornering Cornerbacks

When examining the Cornerback role, it is easy to see that the Chiefs are in dire need of both a starter and position depth. Ward and Breeland give a duo of solid players outside and Rashad Fenton showed he could fit in the picture as a starter as well. How far that goes will be tested in 2020. As noted above, GM Brett Veach added Antonio Hamilton, an experienced hand at CB plus he wanted to be here and wanted the opportunity to compete for a starting job. Even so, the CB position needs a high draft pick. Let me point to the fact that Breeland’s contract runs for one season. If Veach is seeing downhill, drafting a top CB is going to be a top “Needs Based” draft pick… even after all his additions. Drafting such a player must be taken into account.

With two draft picks for Cornerback in this draft, a weakness at CB could become a strength, in one offseason. You must also consider that in adding FA Antonio Hamilton, the Chiefs are stronger at CB than you might believe. On the roster are Chris Lammons (former Dolphin with NFL experience) and Alex Brown who saw time in the last few games of the season including the Super Bowl. You must note that Spagnuolo played Tyrann Mathieu in the CB position for nearly half his snaps. Also, keep in mind that Safety Dan Sorensen was often deployed as the Nickel in the Box and as a hybrid linebacker.

The weakest group is going to deploy a 6th round pick, Rashad Fenton most likely. Fenton found his contribution to the starting role at CB massively upgraded in 2019. He will earn a lot of targets in 2020 because he’ll be picked on by opposing QBs. Indeed his lack of SAQ, his twitchiness is going to be a question that I personally will want to see if that assessment is actually correct. He might actually be better suited as a safety. It’s going to be up to Steve Spagnuolo and DB coach’s Sam Madison and Dave Merritt to figure out how to mix and match their players, to maximize talents. Still, I want Veach to draft a top CB early.

In 2019, Bashaud Breeland was coming off a season spent in Wisconsin but, he had visited the Chiefs at their camp before making that decision (remember his pajama party). 2019 saw some dismal plays by Breeland early and that really was a sore point, but as the defense came together, Breeland’s play became an asset and the final 9 games played shows. Too much attention is paid to the early part of the season because the Chiefs secondary was dealing with… a new DC, a new Scheme and new players all working to mesh as a unit.

Breeland was actually more important to the overall defense for 2020 than CJ. I am not minimizing Jones either. John McCarty at KC Kingdom pointed to Breeland’s importance at KCKingdom as well.

Getting Breeland re-signed to a new contract was crucial to rebuilding the CB crew. On March 4th, Ransom Hawthorne looked at the potential of drafting Cornerbacks in each round of the upcoming draft in his piece called: “The Lazy Big Board: Chiefs Targets at CB.“

What is BEPA?

I have come to truly appreciate the priority view that Ladner Morse developed for the draft. It’s a mix of BPA and position rebuilding. Needs based plus his own developed method of ranking players and import as well as position need. Thus, a likelihood of a particular player to be drafted in any given round. Take the time to review his article on BEPA: The Better at Every Position Approach.

Best Corners Available Early

Below are Cornerbacks with a round 1 or 2 analysis as my objective of who matches the Chiefs needs, position evaluation and player ranking in the BEPA view below. My take of course:

Player                          School              Pos      Round
A.J. Terrell                   Clemson             CB          1
CJ Henderson             Florida                CB          1
Kristian Fulton             LSU                    CB          1
Jeff Okudah                 OSU                   CB          1
Jaylon Johnson           Utah                   CB           2
Jeff Gladney                TCU                   CB           2
Noah Igbinoghene      Auburn                CB          2
Trevon Diggs              Alabama              CB           2
Damon Arnette          OSU                     CB          2/3

Ransom Hawthorne wrote an article recently assessing the view that is important to understanding the needs at CB, and Breeland had not been retained at that point. It is pertinent to this moment, the abiding and “Primary” concern for the Cornerback role. It’s called: “Chiefs Secondary: Primary Concern.”

Page Two: The Need at Linebacker 

With this an analysis of the need at Linebacker, our Ladner Morse, examined the potential draft picks for each round. He of course ruled out Isaiah Simmons as he will be the first LB off the board… and he will be in the top 10 pick. Taking it from there, Laddie examined each likely player for the draft. There is talent, but it is not a deep draft at all for 2020.

I see this group as having two or three possibilities but my main focus has been on Murray or Baun being available at the 32nd pick, which would give the Chiefs the opportunity to obtain both one of the top LB’s as well as a top CB in this draft. The approach is to ensure the Chiefs get the BEPA, but that player who is also very likely to be a starter for 2020. In my case, due to the recognized shallowness of depth and talent at LB, getting a player like any above will likely take a round one selection or possibly picking one of these three could be within the scope of Veach, trading back to a very early round 2 pick. Otherwise the players that I think fits the Chiefs, are going to be removed by the time the Chiefs selection is handed, phoned or texted, to Roger Goodell. You can read Laddie’s article called, “Chiefs: Evaluating Linebackers in the Draft” here.

If this is the case, my logic tells me that Linebacker should be selected first due to talent ranking on the Veach Draft board or the in “Needs” column at the same time, due to the fact that it is a draft list that is very shallow.

List of LB possibilities for rounds 1-3:

Player                          School         Pos                 Round
Kenneth Murray           Oklahoma     ILB/OLB          1/2
Zack Baun                    Wisconsin     OLB/ILB          1/2
Patrick Queen               LSU              ILB                  1/2
Troy Dye                       Oregon          ILB/OLB         2/3
Willie Gay, Jr                 Miss.             ILB                 3/4 – red flags, R2 talent
Malik Harrison              Ohio St        . ILB/OLB         2/3
Jordyn Brooks               Texas Tech    ILB/OLB          3   – not a R2 possibility

There is only 1 truly quality player who will be valid Round 1 pick. Murray is close. Queen and Baun follow below. Personally? It is possible that Murray drops to the Chiers at 32. More likely the choice will be either Queen or Baun and I would opt to pass on Queen for Baun. Baun has the greater ceiling and is a better player for dropping into coverage. A later pick, Jordyn Brooks, has a special place in my heart but for KC, has to be a round 3 or 4 choice.

My personal pick for round 2 is Jaylon Johnson for CB based on two second round picks, via a trade back. My pick for ILB is Zack Baun. I want to obtain a starting quality player in both positions and then draft later on for a 2nd pick at CB. A player selected must be a 3-down WILL or MIKE LB.

The Chiefs need a true 3 down LB and that means to me that Murray or Baun are the only legit players who could start out of the gate. Queen I have concerns about due to fit. Willie Gay Jr has got to be considered but he has a couple of big red flags that must be the subject of vetting. At this point, I think a SAM LB must also be added. I am totally unsure about Dorian O’Daniel. Best solution is to get the right player for all three roles. Damien Wilson is a fit, for now.

Needs for the Offensive Line

Hindsight has made me reassess making this position as equal to CB or LB in need. The moves already made by Brett Veach, plus players returning from Injury, gives me a lot more trustworthiness in the existing roster. That injury plagued season has greatly affected the cohesiveness of the Front 5. The OL remains my 3rd needs based position on the list but, it is now equal in status to the need at other positions such as: TE, RB and WR.

Fisher and Schwartz are not getting younger so, soon the Chiefs will need to fill either or both positions and that must be a constant in Brett Veach’s mind

Player                         School           Position         Round
Cesar Ruiz                  Michigan         C/OG              1/2
Jonah Jackson            OSU               OG                  2
Nick Harris                  Oregon           C/OG              2/3
Matt Hennessey         Temple            C/OG              3
Tyler Biadasz                Wisconsin     C/OG              2/3
Netane Muti                Fresno St        C/OG               3

I may be fickle myself but the above 3 positions and lists of players appears to me to be catholic to where I see weaknesses of the existing roster.  This provides my 3 lists of players for 3 position groups.

For the IOL? The players should be versatile, possess good SAQ and have ability to adapt rapidly, play by play. My selection of candidates is not players who are the “Bulldozer” type player. I view speed and agility as being crucial to the Chiefs offense and hence the players I listed have that type of talent. At the time the players must have the football IQ to play the Zone Blocking Scheme very effectively. The round assigned is my assessed round based on the player analysis. In truth? I don’t really consider Ruiz a round 1 pick but as the best among all interior linemen who were left for late round 1, so I list him as a 1/2.

In Summary

I think Brett Veach is perfectly positioned for the upcoming draft and the potential for trading back could be significant though I cannot see any trade forward being logically possible. Speculation abounds as to trades or releases for cap space but the roster as I see it, is solid as a group for the 2020 season.

Things shift for every team as the F/A period ages. It affects the player outlook and money demands as well. With the signed roster players I see the draft as being a means of adding players who indeed will improve any roster position and certainly provide depth.

The logical focus on any additions, including invitees to rookie camp and training camp, as a means of expanding and improving the roster depth at all positions. This is going to be a more interesting year for draft and training camps, than any season in memory.

David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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