Chiefs: A Return to the Original Script

Chiefs: A Return to the Original Script – the Chiefs came away from the trade deadline and made no significant moves. They did re-sign punter Jack Fox, which was a safety move since Dustin Colquitt strained his lower leg in the game versus the Packers. Be that as it may, it is not a significant addition. So, we’re returning to the original script if you will.

Home Note

Chiefs Lose at Home—Again: the Chiefs lost their third game of the season in front of the crowd at the Friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium. That hurts but the fans were what KC fans have been for a long time and that is avid rascals to put it politely, but far from the misbehavin’ crowds we see elsewhere. This may be showing the fallacy of the presumption that it is better to play at home.

Some Percentages Have Meaning

In 2019 NFL teams have won just 46% at home. A trend is changing. Since the beginning of the so-called modern era, numbers provide a perspective: 1970. So before that date we were what? Quasi Ancient? At any rate… the modern era of the NFL begins with that year.

Recall the 1969 season, which many wrote off as a lost cause during the season with Len Dawson’s knee injury, and losses that accompanied the season… they faced the Raiders twice and lost to our dastardly enemy twice.

The Chiefs though, made the playoffs and were healthy facing off with the Raiders a third time… which was the “charm.” From there was entry as a huge underdog to the “mighty” Vikings in a game now referred to as the Super Bowl IV. The Chiefs then kick Viking’s butt and at the merger, the NFL had the gall to name the trophy: the Lombardi Trophy and not the Hunt Trophy as they should have in my opine.

Editor’s note: Lamar Hunt wrote a letter to then NFL commissioner, Pete Rozelle, saying the league should name the trophy, “The Lombardi Trophy”… likely the real reason for the label.

Patrick Mahomes to Start?

In a piece at KCTV5 that speculates that the benefit of Patrick Mahomes being out, will be valuable to the Chiefs. I actually agree with that, even after the loss to the Packers. However, it will be a Med Staff determination.

The Chiefs immediate problem: Pat Mahomes is in a ‘limited practice status’ again as of today (Thursday). Can he start? Probably. He expanded his physical-ness Thursday. We’ll see. The danger? More likely to end up 5-and-4 without Mahomes. The danger? What percentage possibility of re-injury if Pat starts and takes a hit at just the wrong place, at the wrong angle and he goes down with another dislocation injury. In other words: too soon. The risk of such is far greater to a certain point in time. Determining that point is the question at hand by the medical staff, team and PM2 himself.

Will the Chiefs avert the disaster of going 5-4? Is a Playoff berth in danger? Can Matt Moore lead the team to victory? These are considerations for this week plus the fact that if the Chiefs don’t win, regardless of QB, and the Raiders win, the guys who will play in Vegas next year will close the gap to a one game difference.

Injuries Continue: Guys Banged Up

Note: promising DT Breeland Speaks was knocked out of the season before it began. So too was the #2 QB Chad Henne knocked out of 2019 competition along with Keith Reaser and Xavier Williams.

That was how we obtained the services of Matt Moore who played very well coming in from Junior High School coaching to take the helm of the Chiefs and ensure a win vs. Denver plus a close loss to the might of the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. The Point? The Chiefs were missing their ace, QB Patrick Mahomes and five other starters.

The team acquitted themselves very well but in the end, they didn’t have enough to overcome the Pack, losing 24-31 (btw… my prediction for that game was 24-30). 

Who is Ready to Go?

Frank Clark had sustained a neck injury in week 2 versus the Raiders. He played with the injury for 5 more games, with the finale being outstanding but he aggravated the injury and will be out, week-to-week (day-to-day). He won’t play against the Vikings.

Alex Okafor left the game with a high ankle sprain. I suspect he’ll miss 2 games, maybe more. 8 weeks ago now, Eric Fisher sustained a groin injury in practice. Fisher, Frank Clark, Alex Okafor, LDT, Bashaud Breeland (who sustained a sternum injury as opposed to a shoulder dislocation), are listed as ‘Did Not Practice (DNP). I don’t think LDT’s sprain is severe but check on gameday. Andrew Wylie and Blake returned to Full Practice (FP).

Others who had missed time such as Kendall Fuller, Dustin Colquitt, as well as Pat Mahomes were listed as Limited Practice (LP), as was Chris Jones.

Players Play Lights Out or “Up”

Lest you think this is all dire and a big downer, I want to point to positives and why I think that the Chiefs have a good chance of knocking off the Vikings.

Matt Moore – Jr HS teacher and coach… to… NFL starter. When Mahomes was injured in the 2nd Quarter vs the Broncos, Moore came in, showed a bit of rust in process and then played a very good 2nd half, for: 116 yards passing on 10-19, a completion 52.6% rate, 1 TD and an 89.7 QB rating. Then, the results were top notch against the now 7-1 Packers: 24-36, 2 TD, 0 Int, 267 YP, 66.6% completion rate, with a 107.7 QB rating. Our QB emergency acquisition acquitted himself and shined: big time!

Juan Thornhill: the Chiefs #2 draft pick, 2019 is playing more and more like a seasoned pro. In fact, he has said the game has “slowed down for me.” It appears to be the case as he has 30 tackles and 1 Int. Where I think his value has shown is his ability to shut down a WR and mirror his routes when he is in coverage. Otherwise he is playing center field and figures in on closing off receivers from being targets. His closing speed is top notch.

Charvarius Ward: Ward has a 70.8 grade according to PFF’s Coverage Grades. He trails Chris Harris who leads all CB’s with a 74.8 grade. Not only this but he is allowing an average YPG of less than 30 yards(none over 30), no TD’s and two INT. Stats through 8 games: 43 Tackles and Assists (34 UA), 2 INT’s, 1 FF. I started out with a film study of Ward and decided he was likely going places. Then his closing of the 2018 season was a high positive. Now I am clearly positive he is a starter above average and more in the NFL.

Mecole Hardman: I cannot say enough about Hardman. He’s not getting the targets from Chiefs QBs like a #1 OR #2 WR but he’s made the most of the passes that come his way. He has 20 receptions for 374 yards, 4 TD’s while averaging 18.4 YPC. I know you have seen his speed and the burst that he has turning on the jets. He is nearly the mirror of Ty Hill speed wise. He is a bigger player as well. Also impressive is his contribution as a Punt Return specialist. He has had near breakthroughs for a TD – he has come close but no cigar yet. He also is a huge threat running the football.

My impression is that he’s going to earn more stripes from here on. If he gets a few more targets he will, in my view, be getting numbers near what would be expected of a top WR (1 or 2) on any team in the NFL.

Note: Mecole Hardman is 3rd in average yards per reception among all rookies.

Rashad Fenton: I can’t say anyone has paid attention to Fenton, who did not figure into game snaps until fellow CB Kendall Fuller went out with his thumb injury and to be truthful, neither did I. I had to look up his given name to make sure I wrote this item correctly without error.

What Rashad Fenton had accomplished prior to Fuller’s injury was all on Special Teams and for this he did earn a remark or two from staff. That’s it folks. Fuller goes out and Rashad Fenton immediately was tossed into the fray.

Seth Keysor, writing for the Athletic has an excellent piece on Fenton here.

Of particular note: he had 4 tackles in the Denver game and 1 pass defensed. Versus the Packers, only 1 tackle but he was covering his prey tightly and made tough pass defense against Packer TE Jimmy Graham. We don’t have enough data to really do justice for him but he hasn’t hurt the secondary’s pass defense and he’s given up zero long plays or TD’s. That’s saying something. There are some weaknesses to Fenton but he effectively uses mechanisms to overcome them. He may not have the high ceiling that we’d like in a CB but he could become a reliable starter in the NFL. Time will tell.

Khalen Saunders: Saunders also was lost in the shuffle in front of him as he was vying for an opportunity to show that he could play. At first what I thought I was seeing was a methodical DT without much going for him other than a future as a journeyman type defender. However, in the past two games where he has seen a lot more action, Saunders has finally had the eye of observers and tacticians both. He is playing technically sound football, has the ability to be a huge plug in the line that the blockers have difficulty moving and yet has broken through on the pass rush as well.

Things are really looking up for Khalen and with so many injuries this is a great addition to the mix of players that can be depended upon to make a solid contribution. We don’t have enough data yet but the past two games we are seeing high positives.

I have given a view of five players that are making contributions with Ward and Thornhill leading the way as starters and Hardman more than fulfilling the #3 WR role.

At corner, Ward is playing better than most expected. He is ranked as the 19th or better among cornerbacks. It appears to me he is better than that. What is needed by the Chiefs is for Fuller to return and play good football, taking care of that thumb and for Bashaud Breeland to make more significant contribution. From what I have seen of Rashad Fenton, it appears to me he was far underrated and will be getting more snaps, as long as his play remains positive. I do have a hope now for his participation as we roll towards the Bye.

To be sure, the Chiefs are playing against a tough defense, which the Vikings possess. Their offense has come together the last two games. Another tough job.

The Chiefs are fortunate to be in a weak division and all is not lost if Pat Mahomes doesn’t play. The Chiefs have about even odds or better to win this football game, with Moore, even if Mahomes sits again.

However taking the 4th loss is a worry that is going to put the Chiefs on the edge of things with a playoff berth in danger, especially if the Raiders win. At that point it is going to be crucial for the Chiefs to roll the rest of the way and sweep the games in the AFC West.

I don’t want to get too far ahead. We still have a lot of football left in the season. First, the Chiefs need to show up as they have for the past 2 games, especially the defense.

Let’s Roll!!!!

David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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