Kansas City Chiefs Laddie Morse

Chiefs and 49ers: The Fear Factors

LadnerMorse January 31, 2020 No Comments Gallery

 

Chiefs and 49ers: The Fear Factors – ever since week eleven of the Kansas City Chiefs season, the week after they returned from Nashville, the team has been getting healthy. The last two games, Chiefs fans have enjoyed the full measure of that healthiness as the Chiefs demolished their opponents in the playoffs after digging themselves a substantial hole in both games. A big reason for those comebacks and eventual trounching of their opponents is the speed of their wide receiving corp… plus the arm of Patrick Mahomes.

 

In the NFC, the 49ers were having their way in both of their playoff games due to a fearsome rushing attack and a defensive line that had 9 Sacks, 14 Tackles for a loss and 12 QB Hits vs the Vikes and Packers combined. Since any game is all about the matchup, let’s take a look at the K.C. OL in their playoff games: the Chiefs gave up 3 sacks, 7 Tackles for a loss, and 11 QB Hits vs the Texans and Titans (combined). The stat that jumps off the page here is the 11 QB Hits Patrick Mahomes took from the Texans and Titans combined and pair that with the 12 QB Hits the 49ers DL dished out in their two playoff contests. If you combine those stats with the average number of sacks you come up with: 3 Sacks (approx), and 6 TFL (approx) , and 6 QB Hits, on Patrick Mahomes… projected in SB LIV.

 

If the 49ers DL is allowed to get to Patrick Mahomes 9 times in this game, that is a problem.

 

Part of what is at issue here is that Mahomes will wait until the last second to unload the ball, even though he may be getting hit. Consequently, I’d expect a lot of short routes and screen passes early in this game. Until the OL can determine if they can handle the front four of the 49ers, the Chiefs early game plan must be PMII’s survival.

 

Is that based on fear. Sure, Why not. You must protect the man at the helm, or you risk turning straight into an iceberg… and we all know how that story ends.

 

Am I saying that the Chiefs have a titanic offense? That’s exactly what I’m saying and they must navigate the treacherous waters if they want to reach their destination. It’s interesting that the unit, on each team, which is to be feared the most, will be on the field at the same time: the 49ers DL and the Chiefs QB+WRs. Obviously, a huge storyline in this game will be how the Chiefs OL handles the 9ers DL.

 

The flip side of course is the most talked about feature of either team in Miami this week: the Chiefs team speed. More specifically, the speed of WRs Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins and RB Damien Williams.

 

I am of the opinion that it’s much harder to account for the speed of another team at WR/RB… than it is to plan around the talent and force of an excellent Defensive Line. Remember that the New England Patriots beat the Los Angeles Rams in last year’s Super Bowl even though they had Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Ndamukong Suh, to try and stop the Pats: a 13-to-3 win for New England.

 

While I doubt this game will be a defensive battle, one team’s defense… or defensive player… is going to step up and make a difference in the final score and so we need to take a look at the 49ers “feared” rushing attack and whether or not the Chiefs D is up to the challenge.

 

The Kansas City Chiefs Defense, led by DC Steve Spagnuolo, has been on an upward trajectory of improvement for the past two to three months. In their two playoff games vs the Texans and the Titans, they had 8 Sacks, 12 Tackles for a loss, and 12 QB Hits. Doing the Matchup Mashup thingy again… in the 49ers two playoff games their OL gave up 3 Sacks, 5 Tackles for a loss, and 5 QB Hits vs the Vikes and Packers. This is where it becomes an equation of average per game in the playoffs:

 

 

Whereas, the stats for the KC OL v the SF DL are much more closely aligned and easier to project… these stats for the SF OL vs the KC DL show a much greater difference making these, the stats to watch for, as the game unfolds. This is where I believe someone will step up and make their presence felt.

 

While that addresses the 49ers OL vs the Chiefs DL’s recent success vs the pass… it does not deal with how the Chiefs front 7 will handle the 9ers running game. So let’s take a look.

 

So often we talk in superlatives or perhaps too often are driven to an opinion instead of showing you exactly why we think a certain way. So, here’s the breakdown of a play which I believe explains in much greater detail just how the Chiefs front seven have improved. Let’s begin by taking a look at a play offered by Matt Lane (it’s the second one seen below):

 

 

Prolog: You may enjoy both of these plays but, it’s the second one called “Risky play by Chris Jones” that I will be looking at. First, look at each step and movement of the Chiefs players and how they move in unison. 

 

A. The pre-snap setup.

 

B. Each Defender is numbered and the red arrows show the spacing of the defenders. This spacing keeps the RB from seeing any holes to go through. You can see that RB Derrick Henry is reading that there is a pathway between the Chiefs 1 and 2 hole. However, Chris Jones, #95, has already beat his man and penetrated into the backfield. If Jones was the only defensive player that Henry had to deal with, he might have broken free.

 

 

C. Chiefs LB, #54, Damien Wilson arrives on the scene (from offscreen) and supplies the added pressure. Notice that the red gap arrows have shrunk and given Henry less and less space to operate. The last step is with Wilson coming around KPass, #92, who has held his man in place not only not giving ground, but turning him outside to set the edge. Everyone did a very good job here except… see what happened on the backside of this play below.

 

 

Every Chiefs defender can’t win on every play, and it looks like one Titans’ blocker takes out two Chiefs defenders here. Oh well, at least it didn’t affect the outcome.

 

The point of this exercise is, the Chiefs have gotten very good at limiting the spaces through which a RB can run. Shutting down those alleyways, and narrowing those gaps consistently, will be critical vs the 49ers speedy RBs. Once the Chiefs defense is able to shut this door of opportunity for the 49ers, the more we’ll see if their QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, can put his team on his back (shh, don’t tell anyone but: I don’t believe he can!).

 

In the regular season, Week Six to be exact, the Houston Texans rushed for 192 yards vs the Chiefs. In the playoff game? They had 94 yards rushing vs the Chiefs. In Week Ten vs the Tennessee Titans, the Chiefs D gave up 225 rushing yards but in the AFC Championship game the Titans could only come up with 85 total rushing yards.

 

Was the activation of Mike Pennel the difference? Was it the late season addition of Terrell Suggs the difference? Was it the defense learning Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme better? How about all of the above. There is a massive difference between 417 rushing yards allowed to those two teams in the regular season… and the 89.5 average allowed to those same two teams in the playoffs.

 

The question is: will it make a difference if they are playing the high powered rushing attack of the San Francisco 49ers? 471 yards gained on the ground so far in these playoffs seems like an unbeatable ground game for San Francisco. Right? On the other hand… is the 49ers ground game better than the Titans ground game? Afterall, Derrick Henry is the NFL rushing leader. Yes, the 9ers have three very good RBs. However, only one of the SF RBs can run the ball at a time. Tyrann Mathieu said this week: “You can’t get caught up in the eye candy” of Kyle Shanahan’s offense especially in the their pre-snap activities. While the 49ers DL is being hailed as a fearsome DL, you can’t measure the heart and skill of players like, Frank Clark, Terrell Suggs, Mike Pennel… or like Tyrann Mathieu:

 

 

Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Tyrann Mathieu, all fall in the category of “to be feared.” While I get that Dee Ford has helped to “complete” the 49ers defensive line, in K.C. we all know about his limitations vs the running game and I won’t be at all surprised to see Reid run right at Ford, repeatedly.

 

Let’s not forget, the player who is, “to be feared” more than any other player on the field, wears a Chiefs uni, and his name is Patrick Mahomes. In the past few weeks he’s had a chance to get his legs under him by getting completely healthy. He’s also had the opportunity to use his legs and mostly because… Mahomes reads defenses better than ever after two full seasons. One of the skills I appreciate in Mahomes is his ability to read defenses and make the best throw possible on any given play. Has he been perfect in this arena? No. Not at all but, he’s so far head and shoulders above any other QB in his mental aptitude and quickness to diagnose a coverage and take the best course of action… he can’t help but succeed, if not on this play, then on the very next play.

 

Will Mahomes break a bunch of long runs in this Super Bowl? My take on that is: the 49ers will gladly allow Mahomes to roam free, instead of giving up the deep ball… in hopes that they can lay a hit on him. Meaning, the 9ers will attempt to cover deep and wide but also only send 4 DL to get to him as much as possible… then use their speedy LBs to lay Mahomes out of they can.

 

The Chiefs offense is healthy now and humming like it did in 2018. Humming like a brand new air conditioner.

 

 Whatever teams may have been doing to slow the offense down isn’t working at all now because… in the past four games the Chiefs have averaged 35.75 points per contest, and these were games that mattered the most as K.C. was attempting to lock up the #2 seed by winning out, and hoping for help, which they got from Miami, of all teams. (Miami… hmm… makes ya wonder if there’s a good omen in that).

 

Since the Bye week in Week 12, the Chiefs have scored, 40, 23, 23, 26, 31, 51, and 35 points including the playoffs. That’s 32.7 ppg. Somebody out that should be fearing that!

 

The Chiefs Difference: A Defense to be Feared

The defense has allowed 13.8 ppg since the Titans game in week ten. If you could project those numbers over the whole 2019 regular season, they would be #1 in ppg allowed. Peaking at the right time for sure.

 

Special Teams

The Chiefs Special teams should be feared whether or not it’s Mecole Hardman or Tyreek Hill receiving the ball. Punter Dustin Colquitt and kicker Harrison Butker are some of the best in the NFL. I’m not going to address trick plays today except to say… expect at least one from your Mr. Reid and yes, that will likely involve Special Teams.

 

So, which unit on which team is to be feared the most? Call me biased but… it’s the Kansas City Chiefs all the way.

 

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

 

 

 

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