Chiefs and Bills: What’s Different This Time?

When the Buffalo Bills faced off against the Kansas City Chiefs back on October 10, 2021, they won by a score of 38-to-20. Will the score be anywhere near the same come Sunday? That’s highly unlikely… unless the Chiefs turn that score on it’s head completely, which is a possibility.

TD/INT Ratios and Replications

Bills QB Josh Allen threw three (3) TDs with zero INTs that day, while Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes threw two (2) TD and added two (2) INTs. Allen finished the day with a 139.1 Rating, while Mahomes ended up with a 70.9 Rating. In the early part of the 2021 season Patrick Mahomes was still learning to take what the defense would give, but doesn’t have a problem doing that now. In fact, that’s forced other teams defenses to sag in and try and take the short game away from Mahomes and as we saw vs the Steelers, that doesn’t work now either. At all.

With three months of improvement in the defense, it’s also unlikely that Josh Allen will finish with that high a Passer Rating. That was by far his highest Passer Rating of the regular season. He also had 9 games in which his Rating did not surpass 91.5. By comparison, Mahomes had 8 games below 93.9, but four of his last five games were well above 100, so he appears to be ascending at the right time of year. Only one of Allen’s last six game were over 100.

They say the playoffs are all about QB play… so, I’d be shocked if Patrick Mahomes didn’t out duel Josh Allen. We also know Mahomes has done it before, whereas Allen has not.

Running of the Bills

In October, the Bills leading rusher was Josh Allen while the Chiefs leading rusher was Patrick Mahomes. The Bills ended up with 121 yards rushing while K.C. had 120. I’d call that a dead heat. Since that time, both teams have improved their rushing game. Buffalo sits at #6 in the league rushing for 132.4 yards per game and Devin Singletary has 870 yards for the year. While the Chiefs were 16th in the league in regular season rushing, with 114.5 yards per game, the recent ascendance of Jerick McKinnon will give Buffalo’s DC, Leslie Frazier, one more speedy option to worry about.

Both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are dangerous on their feet and while many give a slight edge to Allen, I’d say the Chief are far more prepared this time around to deal with Allen’s mobility. Besides, it’s the QBs arms that must be dealt with primarily. The Chiefs running game is diverse now and if Clyde Edwards-Helaire plays it gives the Chiefs three ways to beat you: CEH is the Jukes, Darrel Williams is the Ramrod (but likely won’t be available), and Jerick McKinnon is the Speed merchant.

While I’d call it a toss up in the rushing department, it looks like which ever team can establish the run early, will have a big advantage in controlling the game and clock.

Points Allowed

The Buffalo Bills defense allowed a league best 17 points per game over he 17 game season. However, in the Chiefs last ten (10) regular season games they allowed only 15.8 points per game and that includes the 34 point loss to the Bengals and the 24 points allowed to the Broncos in the season finale. Remember, K.C. allowed only 9 points three straight games in a row and once allowed only 7 points to the Rodgers-less Packers. If K.C. can get pressure on Josh Allen and limit his escapability runs, they should have a huge leg up towards a victory.

The team who is playing the hottest football usually comes out on top in the playoffs. That’s the Chiefs defense in this case.

The Insta-Ingram

Almost from the moment that Melvin Ingram arrived, the defense — and especially the defensive line — have played at a higher level. When GM Brett Veach finally pulled the trigger on the trade of a 6th round pick for Melvin on November 2nd, many criticized the move. However, Chris Jones was able to move — for the most part — back inside so he could resume his Defensive Tackle exploits and return to the disruptive force he’d previously been there, since he came into the NFL in 2016. They should have listened to our Mr. Bell (who said as much, many times last summer, even in the face of my disagreement). With Ingram added to the mix, every other DL got better.

Ingram wasn’t on the team the last time the Bills and the Chiefs met.

I don’t know if you saw this one but apparently Ingram likes K.C. and wants to return. A return I can 100% support. Also, Ingram calls DC Steve Spagnuolo a great coach.

Stone Cold Stone Walled

That’s right Chris Jones had a hurt wrist and not only missed week 5 (the Bills game) but he missed the next week as well. Here’s a tweet dated two days before the game vs the Bills back in October:

Corner Cornered, and Out

In October, CB Charvarius Ward was out with a quadricep injury he’d been fighting for a several weeks. His play this Sunday will be crucial as K.C. will probably be without Rashad Fenton again (DNP – Did Not Practice on Wednesday or Thursday).

Minus the 27th Element

In the 2017 NFL draft, the Kansas City Chiefs used the 27th pick plus other picks to jump up to the 10th pick in the draft, to take Patrick Mahomes…

… while the Buffalo Bills took CB Tre’Davious White at #27, who has been to two Pro Bowl and one of those was as a first teamer. While White played in the Bills-Chiefs October affair, he was hurt in a Thanksgiving day game and is now out for the season. The Bills still have a very good defensive backfield, but the loss of White is significant.

Reid Playoff Playbook: Open Sesame

Just as we saw Travis Kelce throw a TD pass vs the Steelers or Nick Allegretti caught a TD pass… those should not be considered so much as “trick” plays as they should be referred to as: Reid’s Playoff Playbook plays. David Bell has hinted at this many times this year and I fully support the view that both Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo have been holding back some of their best plays for he playoffs. So that other teams could not prepare for them based on regular season tape.

Andy Reid has been waiting 6+ months to call plays he created during the last offseason.

October Inactives

• OT Tommy Doyle
• LB Matt Milano
• RB Taiwan Jones
• DT Harrison Phillips 
• DE Efe Obada

• WR Daurice Fountain
• LB Darius Harris
• OL Austin Blythe
• OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
• TE Jody Fortson

Biggest Difference

Perhaps the biggest difference in the game when the two teams met in October, is… the improved and cohesive play of the Chiefs OL now. Back then, no one knew how good OC Creed Humphrey would become nor did we know just how good RG Trey Smith would be. Although they’ve both been huge stories for the Chiefs, it’s the ability of the whole offensive line to play together that’s made a gigantic difference. Matt Conner at ArrowheadAddict said this about Orlando Brown, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith:

“Orlando Brown was already a Pro Bowl tackle with NFL bloodlines and he was named to his third Pro Bowl after his first year played left tackle in K.C.  Beyond that, few young players have proven to be as popular this year as the rookie tandem playing inside in Creed Humphrey (at center) and Trey Smith (at right guard).”

Conner went on to add:

“It feels weird to say that a guy who is set to get paid $85 million over the course of five seasons is someone overlooked or underappreciated, but that’s the nature of being an interior lineman—or at least it’s true of Joe Thuney…. Thuney serve[s] as a teammate and mentor to help shepherd rookie interior linemen to play like elite veterans. He’s been a complete professional on and off the field. He’s also been overlooked when another round of Pro Bowl announcements was made earlier this winter.”

Let’s not forget about the play of Andrew Wylie. Wylie filled in at RT initially for Lucas Niang and now that Niang is out for the season, and with Wylie listed as the permanent RT, the Chiefs OL has been performing at a high level with many running plays designed to go over the right side of the line. I was not happy with Wylie’s first performance in week 5, but since then he’s been a stellar part of the lineup.

Fans need not for get the one game that Joe Thuney moved over to Left Tackle to replace Orlando Brown who sat out one game, and Nick Allegretti who filled in at LG without so much as a blink. Allegretti had a career moment last week too… a play designed to feature him catching a touchdown pass. I fully expect more Andy Reid designed plays like that for this offense in coming weeks as well.

ProFootballNetwork.com has ranked the Chiefs Offensive Line as the 7th best in the 2021 season. They said this about the Chiefs OL:

“The struggles of the Chiefs’ offensive line in last year’s Super Bowl have repeatedly been highlighted this past offseason. While there has been plenty made of their line again this year, the overall performance has been solid…. Kansas City’s OL ranks right around the top 10 in terms of the best offensive lines in the NFL in both the run and pass game.”

The Buffalo Bills are a very talented team, but they haven’t progressed as much as the Chiefs have since October. Especially the Chiefs defense and OL. By Sunday, it will have been 95 days since these two teams last met. In dog years. that’s like 1.7 years ago. Well, maybe it hasn’t technically been that long, right? However, it does seem like an age ago.

What do you think? Have these two teams changed much, since they first met in October, in your view?

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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