Chiefs at Bills, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – By Laddie Morse

Chiefs at Bills, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – By Laddie Morse – Let’s take a moment to appreciate that the Chiefs are winning at a .800% rate in 2020 and just came off of a Super Bowl winning season and are still picked by many to win the Super Bowl this season. There’s nothing like a moment of relativity is there? Sure, we’ve got 2020 to deal with: Halloween may get canceled and the league may not make it through the season, all because of outside forces, but the Kansas City Chiefs are on a roll and they just brought in Le’Veon Bell to help with the running back chores (which includes protecting the best QB any team ever had), so let’s put in our Gratitude Caps… before we start complaining about the Salary Caps.

Team Offense: Rankings

The Chiefs and the Bills have looked like a mirror of each other this year in no small part due to the ascendance of Bills QB Josh Allen. With both the Chiefs and the Bills touting a 4-and-1 record, Pro Football Reference has the Chiefs offense ranked #8 and the Bills Offense ranked #9. While the Chiefs have passed for 1,439 yards this year, the Bills have passed for 1,540. Surprisingly, the Chiefs have had a more balanced attack by having rushed for 597 yards while the Bills come in at 469 yards rushing.

It’s not so surprising when you consider that 22 of the 32 teams in the NFL have thrown for more than 1,000 yards this year (prior to Sunday) while only 3 teams have surpassed 800 yards rushing: the Vikings (803), the Ravens (804), and the Browns (940).

Consequently, the game may come down to whether or not the Chiefs can stop the Bills rushing attack. The Bills leading ground gainer is Devin Singletary who has 238 yards rushing. Singletary also has 122 receiving yards which gives him 360 all purpose yards this season. While the Bills biggest threat is WR Stefon Diggs, unless the Chiefs front seven can stop the Bills on the ground, chasing Diggs may be a moot point.

The Chiefs offense is lead by a QB who may end up being the best of all time when he’s finished playing the game. Last weekend, Josh Allen was being compared to Patrick Mahomes (as are many college QBs these days) especially because of some of the body angles he puts himself in to make his throws. While this may be a game that Allen has extra motivation to shine in, simply because this is a head-to-head confrontation, those kinds of games usually go to Mr. Mahomes.

Not to be forgotten is the trade the Chiefs made with the Bills during the 2017 NFL Draft which netted them Patrick Mahomes II. The trade details went something like this:

One decided advantage the Chiefs defense has is in the turnover/takeaway department. K.C. has a plus-5 turnover differential and ranks fourth in the NFL. On the flip side, the Bills have a minus-2 differential.

History: Repeats Itself, Repeats Itself

We all know that Andy Reid does well when he has extra time to prepare for a game. In the regular season, Andy Reid is 18-3 when his team is coming off a bye. However, Reid’s teams are streaky, at best. We can all recall the time when he first came to K.C. and took a 2-and-14 team on a 9 game winning streak right out of the gate. What many may not remember is that he then went on two losing streaks that year: with a three game losing streak after winning the 9 straight, then he won two straight and ended by losing two more in a row.

The coming years (after 2013) all saw streaks abound, and most include losing streaks:

So, in Andy Reid’s first seven years in Kansas City, he has only one season in which he did not have a losing streak of 2-games or longer. Sure, there were all of those great winning streaks, but if a team is going to beat a Reid coached team, there’s a better chance they can do so the week after that Reid team has lost. Therein lies the danger in this game vs the Buffalo Bills. OTOH, the Bills also dropped their most recent game against the Titans so with both teams coming off of a loss, there doesn’t appear to be a big advantage in that department. Some may argue that the Bills are getting a Home game advantage, but with Mr. Covid in the house, those kinds of advantages seem to be nil.

Chiefs Offense: Point of Concern

The Bills have a strong defensive line with Vernon Butler and Ed Oliver on the interior. With the one weakness in the Chiefs offense coming at the Interior of their Offensive Line, look for the Bills to get a push up the middle to get Patrick Mahomes off his mark. While we know that Mahomes is usually very good when he decides to escape the pocket, and pass, or run, the concern comes if the Bills can get pressure from their edge rushers simultaneously, and since they have Jerry Hughes at one of their defensive end positions, there is a good possibility of that happening, especially since it looks like K.C. will be without RT Mitchell Schwartz for this game.

Chiefs Offense: Advantage

While the Chiefs Team defense is ranked 11th by Pro Football Reference, the Buffalo Bills are ranked at #22. The only teams who have had a chance against a Patrick Mahomes led offense — so far in his career — are teams with a top ten defense who are very good at stopping the pass. That does not describe the Buffalo Bills Defense. Maybe the most telling stat for the Bills is that they are ranked #27 in the league in completions allowed, with 128. Where are the Chiefs on that same scale? 7th, with only 99 completion allowed, and that includes the 22 completions by Derek Carr last week vs the Raiders. Look for the Chiefs to have a big game in the passing department.

Chiefs and Bills Injuries

Chiefs

• WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring) O
• OT Mitchell Schwartz (back) Q

Bills

• WR John Brown (knee) Q
• LB Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder) Q
• LB Matt Milano (pectoral) Q
• CB Tre’Davious White (back) Q
• G Quinton Spain (foot) Q
• TE Dawson Knox (calf) O

Keys:

• Q = Questionable
• O = Out

What This Game Means in the Standings

From ESPN, this shows that the Chiefs would be a half game ahead of the Raiders with a loss. The Bills would be a whole game ahead of the Dolphins with a loss. The winner of course goes to 5-and-1 and solidifies their hold on their own division.

Oddly Enough: Chiefs by 5

Don’t ask me what most of this means (taken from USAToday.com), but it looks like the Chiefs are 5 point favorites:

Against the spread/ATS: Chiefs -5 (-115) | Bills +5 (-106)

Weather in Buffalo

It looks like we’re in for a spot of drizzly weather during the Chiefs match with the Bills in Buffalo.

Prediction: PMII is an excellent inclimate Weather game player so…

I’m taking the Chiefs by 10, in a 31-to-21 final.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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