Chiefs At Broncos, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – By Price Carter

Chiefs At Broncos, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – By Price Carter – It’s a rare occurrence when a coach actually gives a meaningful quote in a press conference. Monday after the Bills game, their coach, Sean McDermott, gave a quote that isn’t getting enough attention nationally. 

“This is an explosive offense, mainly through the air,” McDermott said. “You have to pick your poison here, what you’re trying to take away. On the other end you’re going to give a little bit. I’m not saying we liked what we gave up in the run game. That said, toward the end of the game we’re in the game as opposed to some people that are getting blown out because the ball is flying over their head in the passing game with Mahomes, Hill and Kelce.”

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It’s safe to say that NFL coaches don’t really like to admit defeat or that they have a gameplan that is inferior. McDermott just admitted that they were happy to just be “in the game” against the Chiefs offense despite getting gashed on the ground.  He’s admitting the Chiefs passing game is so dangerous that they would rather give up what’s in front of them than get beat over the top. While the Chiefs offense may not be putting up the gaudy numbers it did in 2018, in some ways, this offense is even more dangerous because of its diversity. I remember getting so frustrated in 2018 with NFL Network’s Jeffri Chadiha, who refused to acknowledge the Chiefs as an elite contender because they could only win games of a certain style. On Monday the Chiefs showed why they are an elite team; they won a game without playing their brand of football. 

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This is part of the next step in the evolution of Patrick Mahomes becoming the best player in football. Being able to take advantage of what is given to him and checking down to short passes and running into light boxes. Simply put, you’re just not going to stop the Chiefs on offense, you’re only hope is to score with them and get a few key stops or turnovers on defense. The Broncos will likely continue the trend of rushing 3-4 and dropping 8 into coverage to take away the vertical threat of Mahomes.

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Now is also a good time to mention that the Chiefs running game just got better with the addition of a 2 time All-Pro: Le’Veon Bell. As Richard Sherman put it even before Bell came to K.C., “You don’t just pick your poison, you just pick how you’re going to die.”

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1st Down- Get to Lock

Even though it is “Locktober” the Broncos quarterback still has a lot to prove as a starting quarterback. His most recent game in New England actually was much better than the box score shows. His reicervers had some pretty key drops in the red zone that would have likely made the score in the game much more lopsided. Drew Lock led all QB’s last week, in PFF’s big time throws. This is all to say that we still don’t really know what to expect from the young QB. His only other full game against Tennessee was fairly disappointing especially in crucial passing situations. Despite a respectable arsenal of weapons Lock seems to struggle in obvious passing situations when the defense is bringing the pressure. Last year in Arrowhead, Lock really folded under the Chiefs blitz game. 

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It will be important for the Chiefs to continue to throw exotic blitzes at Lock to pressure him into mistakes or errant throws. Lock still has a tendency to put the ball in harm’s way in order to make a play, including a fumble and two back breaking interceptions with the game on the line last week. Frank Clark and Chris Jones need to head into Mile High hungry, especially with the amount of injuries along the defensive line (Okafor and Charlton). The Athletic’s Nate Taylor did report that Defensive Tackle Khalen Saunders practiced for the first time on Wednesday and would be a candidate to be activated off the IR. 

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2nd Down- Control the Run Game

The Broncos weren’t trying to keep any secrets when they signed Melvin Gordon in the off-season despite having a pro-bowl running back in Phillip Lindsay. Denver and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur want to protect Lock by running the ball and setting up play action. Both backs also provide a nice security blanket for Lock to check down passess to in the flat. Truthfully, it’s always less efficient to run the ball, so if the Broncos want to try to run it down the Chiefs throat all game long, that might be a victory for KC. 

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What could be problematic is the Broncos running the ball with enough success that the Chiefs have to honor the play action to Jeudy, Hamler, Patrick, Fant and Okwuegbunam. Even without Cortland Sutton the Broncos have enough weapons that they can make the Chiefs defense pay for not protecting over the top. Between Gordon, Lindsay and Royce Freeman the Broncos can always stay fresh in the backfield. While the Chiefs defense is still vulnerable to the run — allowing 4.8 yards per carry — the best defense in this case is a strong offense. If the Chiefs offense can come out firing, it can force the Broncos offense to become one dimensional. 

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3rd Down- Establish the Pass

As we discussed in the opening, the Chiefs passing game is becoming such a threat to teams that they are willing to give up underneath passing and rushing the ball. It’s weird to think that the Chiefs offense has actually done a full 180 from what it was with Alex Smith. In 2017, Smith’s best year, the offensive thrived off of Kareem Hunt’s running and Smith making teams pay with his short throws, even though he averaged a career high in yards per attempt (8.0).

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Since Mahomes has taken over his lowest yards per attempt is 8.3 last season. Mahomes pushes the ball downfield and defenses are tired of getting beat over the top, so they are continuing to flood the intermediate zones and play with 2 deep safeties. It’s weird to think that the best thing for the Chiefs offense might be to go back to the Alex Smith scheme for a while. 

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Andy Reid should focus on scheming Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Clyde Edwards-Helaire open in space underneath and allow them to make plays after the catch, much like Hunt, Hill and Kelce did in 2017. While it may seem less glamorous to dink and dunk for 4-7 yards a pass, this is the most efficient way to beat the deep zone and negate a pass rush. Much like last game against the Bills, the run game will also play a part in the Chiefs beating this scheme. Hopefully, this will be a good opportunity to incorporate new running back, Le’Veon Bell. The Broncos defense is much stronger than the Bills, but still lacks some strength on the defensive line. It would make sense for them to employ a similar scheme as the Bills did. 

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4th Down- Control the Noise

Typically, most locker room narratives are overplayed going into a game. NFL players are professionals and have had to tune out adversity their whole playing career. That’s part of what makes them professionals. However, with this game there are so many outside factors that the story of the game cannot be told without acknowledging it:

  • The forecast is calling for snow and cold temperatures in Denver. While we all like to look back on last year’s snow game with fond memories for the Chiefs, this game can be different.
  • Denver has an improved offense that can make things just as difficult for the Chiefs’ defense as it was for Denver’s defense last year.
  • The impact of Covid-19 will be present again with the lack of fans in the stands and the status of Anthony Sherman still in question.
  • Another possible distraction is the addition of Le’Veon Bell. All reports seem to verify that Bell is a great addition off the field, but what about on the field? It’s important for the offense to not force things through their new weapon, just to validate the acquisition. 
  • Lastly, if the Raiders loss taught Chiefs Kingdom anything it’s that every team takes playing the Chiefs more seriously than any other game. The Chiefs are the defending Champs and you better believe that our in division rivals hate that fact.
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Each and every team will give their best effort to humble the defending champs, if the 2011 Chiefs can humble the undefeated Packers it can happen to the 2020 Chiefs as well. The Broncos are also finally getting healthy as well, getting back several of their offensive playmakers and a valuable corner. With all of these factors it’s important to go into Denver and take care of business. With a loss at home it will drop the Broncos down to 2-4 and likely end any chances they have for winning the West.

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Prediction- Chiefs 28 Broncos 17

The Chiefs will come out early and cash in on a few big plays and rely on the run game to carry them home the rest of the way. The Chiefs defense will overwhelm Lock in the first half and limit him into the second half where they will eventually find some success, but not enough to scare the Chiefs. Chiefs roll to 6-1 and look forward to facing the hopeless N.Y. Jets at home.

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Price Carter — ArrowheadOne

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