Chiefs at Broncos: Preview and OPEN THREAD

Week 18 — the last week of the NFL regular season — has arrived and so too have the 11-and-5 Kansas City Chiefs ambitions of still attaining the number one seed in the AFC. It will take a win vs the Denver Broncos today plus a loss by the 11-and-5 Tennessee Titans vs the 4-and-12 Houston Texans tomorrow in Houston. However, there’s still remains an inkling of hope, no matter how small. In the meantime, there’s today’s game against an AFC West Division foe the Chiefs have beaten 12 straight times.

Some Chiefs fans are under the felonious impression that had the Chiefs beaten the Bengals last week, that they’d be able to sit all their starters this week. That’s a false notion because it would have also taken the Titans losing to the Dolphins for that to happen… and they beat Miami 34-to-3. Why else? Because, if K.C had beaten the Bengals, then lost to the Broncos, they’d be in the same fix they’re in now. Consequently, they’d have been faced with: having to beat the Bengals, and, having to beat the Broncos, which means starting their starters in each case. The reason for all that is because the Chiefs need to finish with a better record than the Titans, not the same record –> because the Titans hold the tie-breaker.

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Chiefs Winning Streak

In November of 2015, the Chiefs began their current winning streak over the Broncos. That was the last time the Chiefs faced Peyton Manning and they greeted him — or we should say prepared his exit — by intercepting him four times and also holding Manning to his only 0.0 passer rating. While the Broncos went on the win Super Bowl 50 that year — with a flack-jacketed and duct taped Manning stitched together — they have had 11 different starting QBs since then and none of them have produced the desired results (nor any wins vs the Chiefs). From the Denver Post, those QBs include:

1. Trevor Siemian

2. Paxton Lynch

3. Brock Osweiler

4. Case Keenum

5. Joe Flacco

6. Drew Lock

7. Brandon Allen

8. Jeff Driskel

9. Brett Rypien

10. Kendall Hinton

11. Teddy Bridgewater

The first four losses (out of the 12 straight) by the Broncos to the Chiefs were pre-Mahomes, but Patrick has beaten them 8 straight times now, so today shouldn’t be any different. Because Teddy Bridgewater has had a second concussion, he’s been moved to IR and his season is over, so the Chiefs will once again face the Kansas City product — out of Lee’s Summit High School — Drew Lock. Lock will be playing for his life in the NFL, likely as a backup QB, somewhere other than Denver.

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Injury Reports

Broncos DE Shelby Harris is also listed as Questionable. If he can’t go, the Denver pass rushing tandem of Harris and Bradley Chubb will suffer and be limited. While their head coach, Vic Fangio is a defense-first kind of guy, and we know that any real pressure a defense can place upon the Chiefs begins with their four man defensive front… with Harris gimpy, plus Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain II out, their frontend, and backend, will be cramped.

The loss of Clyde Edwards-Helaire in this game should not mean the Chiefs will be hampered in their attack at all. Last week, vs the Bengals, RB#2, Darrel Williams, proved he can carry the load all by his lonesome, and I expect more of the same this week vs the Broncos. Here’s the call by Mitch Holthus on a Darrel Williams TD vs the Bengals:

Broncos Offensive Strength

RB Javonte Adams is 11th in the league in rushing with 857 yards. The Chiefs will need to stop Adams, or at least slow him down, to make sure they put themselves in a position to win this game. If, when, the Chiefs take away their running game, it throws (literally) the responsibility for winning the game onto the QBs shoulders and with Drew Lock behind center, that’s not likely to happen. WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton plus TE Noah Fant are all talented receivers so it’s not a matter of Lock not having anyone to throw to. While there are some who are still hoping Lock is the future at QB, it looks more like his time in Denver is done, unless he shows up big time today.

Projections

If K.C. can get out in front with a healthy team and lead, half way through the 3rd quarter, I can see Reid pulling some starters including Patrick Mahomes. That might take a 28+ to 7 or less lead at that point, but it seems likely. I doubt the Chiefs will be taking the Broncos lightly and this should be a bounce back game for the Chiefs players as they have kept the noses to the grindstone following a gut wrenching loss. The Chiefs offense probably comes out of the gates flying high and gets the team a three TD lead early on. Let’s hope they can sustain such a lead in this game and not allow Denver back into the game later.

Mile High Weather

Empower Field is an open air stadium. Here’s what we can expect from the weather:

My take on this game is 35-to-9. If the Chiefs can make that happen, I expect to see a number of the Chiefs second team players inserted prior to the beginning of the 4th quarter.

What’s your take?

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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