Chiefs at Broncos, Week 7: OPEN THREAD

Chiefs at Broncos, Week 7: OPEN THREAD – the Kansas City Chiefs are hoping to get back on the winning track in Denver on Thursday Night Football at 7:20 PM CDT tonight.

Weather Report

Good News for those of you who are trying to read something into the graphic at the head of this piece… no snow is expected for this game. Here’s the weather forecast for the 80204 zip code region where Mile High Stadium is located, provided by accuweather.com:

By now, most fans are aware that the biggest concern for the Chiefs, beyond their list of players who have injuries, is their rushing defense. The Broncos boast the 14th best rushing attack led by Phillip Lindsay who ranks as the 13th best rusher in the league. Those are not outstanding numbers so the if there’s a week when the Chiefs #30 ranked rushing defense is going to step up, this is the week.

The Chiefs will have to do that without one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league, Chris Jones. Sayre Bedinger of PredominantlyOrange, a Bronco Fansided website, says Denver will have an advantage due to the Chiefs injuries. Notice how he typifies each player:

“Missing for the Chiefs on Thursday night are:

• • DL Chris Jones
  • WR Sammy Watkins
  • LT Eric Fisher
  • CB Kendall Fuller
  • OG Andrew Wylie

For those not overly familiar with the Chiefs’ roster, that means they will be without:

• • Their best defensive player (Jones)
  • Their second-best receiver
  • Their second-best OL and starting LT
  • Their best cornerback
  • Their starting left guard”

While I’m not so sure that Kendall Fuller is the Chiefs best corner, Sayre appears to get the rest correct. I’m not so worried about the losses of Sammy Watkins or Andrew Wylie or Kendall Fuller because, others can step in and step up like Demarcus Robinson, Martinas Rankin and Morris Claiborne, who appears ready to step up at CB and others can fill in for Fuller at the slot… but the absence of Eric Fisher and Chris Jones will be felt.

The game will come down to whether or not the Chiefs can stop the running game of the Broncos. The Chiefs will also need to establish their own running game. Although the Chiefs have not had trouble running the ball in recent years, there have been enough games with less than 100 yards rushing to give one pause. With the Broncos defense allowing zero points and a total of 39 yards rushing, the Chiefs RBs and OL have their work cut out for them. Titans RB Derrick Henry, who sliced and diced the Chiefs defense in the playoffs last year for 156 yards and a 6.8 yards per carry average… was held to 28 yards rushing by the broncos this past Sunday and a 1.9 yards per carry average.

Striking a balance between the running game and the passing game will be a challenge for Andy Reid tonight. No, the Chiefs don’t need to run the ball the same percentage as they pass the ball but, a 40/60 split would indicate a dominance as much as any other indicator that the Chiefs are winning the game against their Broncos defense. Running the ball a mere 11 times as the Chiefs did against the Texans will never work, even with the best quarterback this side of the new millenium. 

For the Chiefs to win this one, what will needs to happen?

• • Patrick Mahomes will need to have a great game and keep from re-injuring his ankle,
  • Tyreek Hill and the wideout crew must all keep the field stretched wide and deep by getting separation,
  • The defense must keep the Broncos running game in check which emans holding them to less than 115 yards on the ground,
  • The DL must keep pressure on Joe Flacco and Frank Clark must get at least one sack and three pressures,
  • The team must minimize penalties which means fewer than 8 penalties (which is their average).

To overcome the Mile High noise factor it will be advantageous for the offense to score early and often, thereby assuring a lead that will quiet the crowd. Denver fans will be wanting to put the Chiefs heads on a stake so there’s not other way to take them out of it besides creating a lead early on.

The Broncos QB Joe Flacco has completed 130 passes of 196 attempts for a 66.3% rate but, he’s thrown 6 TDs but almost as many INTs with 5. He has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long… which may not only be an advantage for the Chiefs rushers but the K.C. DBs may have a breakout game in terms of INTs… if he does that tonight. Flacco also has a habit of throwing off the wrong foot which can result in an INT,

The Broncos organization has been in decent mode over the past four seasons and the Chiefs have had an upward trajectory over that same period. A win for the Broncos tonight puts them one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West but the reality is, the Broncos haven’t beaten the Chiefs since September of 2015, seven straight losses in a row.

What the Chiefs will also be attempting to escape is a losing streak-itis. Or streak-itis of any kind. However, that may be tricky as the team has had so many winning and losing streaks since Reid came to town. In 2012, prior to Reid, the Chiefs were an abysmal 2-and-14. The with Reid as HC, they started 2013 with 9 straight victories… and then… followed that up with 3 straight losses.

Apparently, a Denver sports radio station and their listeners think the Chiefs will win this one too. Good to know.

One advantage the Chiefs have in their favor is Andy Reid. Like Marty Schottenheimer, Reid makes sure his team is ready every time they play against a division rival. The Chiefs are 21-3 since Reid came to K.C. in 2013, and you can add a win over the Raiders in week one of this season to that total.

Taking all into consideration, with home field advantage for the Broncos, I predict they keep it close but the Chiefs come out on top, 31-to-20.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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