Chiefs at Bucs, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – by Price Carter – Several weeks ago there was a big stir on Chiefs twitter in regards to a tweet made by a PFF staffer. Sam Monson argued that Brady and Mahomes were much closer to one another in play in regards to their turnover worthy plays and PFF grade. This upset a large amount of Chiefs fans because the gap between Brady and Mahomes seems to be much more than he implied. It’s also worth noting that at this point Mahomes was on a bye week after lighting up the Panthers defense and Tom Brady had just finished one of his worst performances of his career against the Saints. There’s a couple of issues with Sam’s tweet and Chiefs’ fans reactions as well. The most obvious is the argument built upon turnover worthy plays; we as fans tend to only remember the calls and plays that go against us. We remember when our DB drops an obvious INT, but not when a Mahomes INT is dropped.
Turnovers are more or less a coin toss, year to year teams have different luck with turnovers. Oftentimes there is a team that thrives off them in a year and regresses the following season (see 2018 Bears). It’s okay to admit Mahomes gets lucky at times, it’s also possible that Brady has gotten unlucky with some turnovers too. So is Sam correct in his assessment? At the time? Maybe. However, we as Chiefs fans need to be more confident in the ultimate truth: Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable player in the NFL. Just because players have better weeks, seasons or stretches than Mahomes does not make them better. This is known as the “Lebron James rule.” Year after year a new great story takes over the NBA and a player who may have better stats wins MVP over Lebron. Despite Lebron’s teams almost always appearing in the finals on the back of his heroics. Mahomes is… the way, the truth and the light and PFF grades are not the difference in that fact.
PFF is a nice tool and should be viewed just as that; it does not define a player or their value to a team. We as Chiefs fans need to be comfortable enough with the ultimate truth that we should not have to engage in this type of argument to begin with. Just soak up the thrill of knowing the Chiefs are about to face Tom Brady and he’s the clear underdog.
1st Down- Stop the Run
Part of the Tom Brady mirage is the fact that he has only thrived with a strong run game since the Super Bowl vs the Falcons. This is why the Bucs drafted a RB in the 3rd round, signed LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette to pair with their other high round pick, Ronald Jones, a 2nd round pick from 2018. Brady cannot just drop back and throw 40 times on the way to victory. He needs the run game to take pressure off of him and to set up play action. The Buccaneers are 4-1 this season when they rush for 100 yards or more. If the Chiefs are able to stop the ground game it forces Brady to become one dimensional.
Despite the abysmal showing by the Chiefs defense last week they actually were fairly strong against the run despite facing a solid 1-2 punch of Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker. Once again the problem with the Chiefs defense is they put themselves in positions that make the run and the pass both viable options. If the Chiefs can force the Bucs into passing, it will expose Brady’s weaknesses. Of course, it feels weird to hope for a team with this type of weaponry to throw the ball.
2nd Down-Get the ball out Quick
Todd Bowles is the Bucs DC and his defense is as aggressive as they come. The Buccaneers blitz on a staggering 41.9% of defensive snaps, which is 2nd behind, you guessed it, the Ravens. It’s weird to think that we want defenses to send blitzers against Mahomes, but history has proven he is at his best when facing pressure. Quite honestly this game could come down to Bowles being willing to adapt his scheme to face Mahomes. If he is willing to only send 4 and use more coverage they give themselves their best chance at contending with KC’s offense. With players like Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett and Ndamukong Suh, this should not be impossible for them to do.
Andy Reid should look at the game script from the Ravens game and look to integrate it into this game plan as well. Look for more screens, touch passes and RPO’s to expose the aggressive nature of the Buccaneers defense. The more Tampa Bay’s dynamic linebackers are hesitating at the line of scrimmage, the better chances the Chiefs have of exposing the weaker secondary of the Buccaneers.
3rd Down- Flood the Zones
Tom Brady has been BRUTAL — brutally bad — throwing the ball down the field lately. This is more important in Tampa than New England because Arian’s offense is built upon the vertical threat of almost every play. The problem with trends are: are they indicative of what’s occurred? Or: are they indicative of what is about to occur? It’s the flip the coin theory: if you flip a coin 5 times and it lands on heads is this a trend or randomness? Is the next flip bound to be a heads again, or destined to be tails? Brady is 0-19 on his last deep pass attempts. Does that mean the Chiefs should challenge him to throw the ball deep? Or, still be cautious of the big play with Brady eventually landing a deep throw.
Even if Brady does land a big play it’s likely that will not be the difference in the game. I just can’t see a scenario where Brady kills the Chiefs over the top like the Week 5 matchup with the Raiders. Spags needs to play a single high safety (Thornhill please and thank you) and flood the intermediate zones and beg Brady to push the ball downfield. This would also be another golden opportunity to play Willie Gay, who stands a much better chance of covering Gronk, or any of their running backs. Tom Brady has played this long simply off throwing 6-yards at a time… and because of a strong running game. Take that running game away and he’s mediocre at best.
4th Down- Rush the Passer
The only more controversial figure than PFF Sam on twitter lately has been Chris Jones. He got into it with a local radio host who questioned his effort and several clips of his lack of effort have surfaced from the Raiders game. Pass rushing is similar to being a big league hitter if you succeed 3/10 times for your career you’re an elite player, despite failing 7 times. Rushing the passer is more complicated than effort. Obviously, it does matter though. I wrote last week that Jones and Clark need more support from other players. The two still account for almost ½ of the defense’s total pressures and sacks. It’s easy to point the finger at these two players because of their contracts… which is a valid argument… but it doesn’t change the fact that the money is spent and the results are not there.
Last week was a bad matchup for the Chiefs. The Raiders have a top 3 defensive line and Derek Carr becomes 2013 Aaron Rodgers against the Chiefs now apparently. The Bucs have a much weaker interior offensive line and Brady is much more vulnerable to pressure. This feels like a statement game for the Chiefs defensive line; they’ve heard the noise from the media and fans and now have a golden opportunity to make a point in the national spotlight. We all know Frank Clark and Chris Jones have the “juice” to step up in big moments. Let’s hope the performance against the Raiders is more of a turning point than a warning signal.
Prediction- Chiefs 38, Bucs 21
It’s just a lot to ask any defense to keep the Bucs high powered offense off the scoreboard for a whole game. I expect the first half of this game to feel close going blow for blow for both offenses. Look for the Chiefs to pull away in the second half with some big defensive stops or turnovers being the difference for the Chiefs.
Price Carter — ArrowheadOne
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