Chiefs at Bucs, Super Bowl LV Preview: OPEN THREAD – The day has finally arrived. It’s out with the old, in with the new. I’m not sure how to take that coming from an oldie-but-(sometimes)-goodie. Will Tom Brady bolster his death grip on the throat of the GOAT tag emblematic of the games best all time player… or will Patrick Mahomes reinforce his stranglehold on that title as the games best QB now and ruling the future of the NFL? The reality is… this game is not about that alone. It’s so much more than that.
There are those who are saying that for Tom Brady this game is all about proving he can win it all without Bill Belichick and see it as a revenge game for him. In the meantime, the Chiefs, as a franchise, are putting their growing reputation on the line which includes everyone involved in the organization, not just their wonderful QB.
The Force Awakens
The Kansas City Chiefs are a team in process. That’s a huge positive and a great advantage for them. If you recall the “Dream Team” QB Vince Young labeled in Philly back in the year of 2011. Andy Reid was still there and he brought in:
- QB Michael Vick
- WR Steve Smith
- RB Ronnie Brown
- DE Jason Babin
- CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
- LB Akeem Ayers
- OG Evan Mathis
- DT Cullen Jenkins
- QB Vince Young
However, when all was said and done, the 2011 Eagles finished with an 8-and-8 record, 2nd in the NFC East and didn’t qualify for the playoffs. BTW, Reid’s band of merry men went on to finished 4-and-1 the very next season, his last in Philly, setting the stage for his departure, and then arrival, in K.C.. The point is, growing and developing a team concept is much different than throwing one together in one season. The edge must always be given to the organization that has gradually matured together over time. That perfectly describes the Chiefs. The inverse is basically true for the Bucs.
Mahomes Does Not Face Brady
Let’s get one thing perfectly clear here, Patrick Mahomes does not face off against Tom Brady in this game. Mahomes face the Bucs D while Brady faces the Chiefs D. Period. So, let’s take a look at Brady vs the Chiefs D… and Mahomes vs the Bucs D.
Brady vs the Chiefs D
Tom brady has been up and down this season. More accurately, he’s been down… then up. The same was true in the game vs the Chiefs. In fact, you could argue that Brady has been lights out ever since the second half began when the Bucs faced K.C. back in Week 12. Projecting that game forward to this game, there appears to be one critical question that must be answered in order to determine if he Chiefs can overcome a Brady comeback and that question is: how many stops (or 3-and-outs) will it take to bring down Brady and the Bucs? Two will certainly not do it, right. How about Three? Or Four? K.C. started the game against the Bucs in late November with Four straight stops. After that? The defense never got a stop. Now, I’m discounting the two INTs the Chiefs got, but those could be attributed to the Bucs doing all they could to come back. That appears to be the way to beat them this time too. Force them into a come-back situation and Brady become manageable. Sounds crazy to say it against one of the league best comeback artists of all time, but that looks like it’s exactly what Dr. Kevorkian is prescribing. IOW… it could be the Chiefs Kill Shot!
The other Big Q to be answered in this game is: can the Chiefs D-line get home against Tommy boy? Then ask yourself how important Defensive Line coach… the Four Time Super Bowl winning DL coach… Brendan Daly, is to answering that first question. Id’ say, 100% in importance and relativity. The reality is, over the past two weeks, I have only found one article or interview of Daly by a native-Chiefs reporting source and that’s KSHB. However, I’ve have found many more pieces on Daly outside of K.C. like: the Tampa Bay Times, the Milford News, the Springfield Journal Register of Chicago, Patriots Wire, WEEI Radio, and ESPNDeportes (for Spanish speaking fans). The point is, while those in the K.C. may not yet recognize the skills and talents of Brendan Daly, there are plenty (and many more) who do. His input on how to sheep shear a goat will be mammoth.
Mahomes vs the Bucs D
A lot is being made of the Bucs DL against the Chiefs OL, especially Kansas City’s OTs. From what I recall whenever the Chiefs have played against teams like the Broncos who sport two of the best DE (OLBs) in Bradley Chubb and Von Miller, it’s not just Mitchell Schwartz that has made the Chiefs successful whenever they face them. Same with the Texans when they had both JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus (or Jadeveon Clowney). Chiefs HC Andy Reid knows how to scheme up a game plan that takes advantage of another team’s strong defensive line.
Reid’s Play Design and Sequence
The first thing Reid wants to see them (opposing DL) do is to have to run and chase all over the field and tire themselves out. He likes to keep them from teeing off and rolling downhill to the QB. So, what does he do? Reid calls:
- plays designed to go left then run (or throw) right (or visa versa)
- he calls inside and outside screens to keep them confused
- he uses short routes to nickel and dime the DBs, gradually pulling them inwards until he goes deep, and more importantly, frustrating the DL because there’s no way they can get home fast enough
- he calls jet sweeps and then draws to get the DL going one way and then the other
… all of which throw DE’s off and keep them guessing and whiffing. His play structure is so good, OL want to play for him, however, credit must also go to Brett Veach for signing guys like Mike Remmers and Stefen Wisniewski (and Kelechi Osemele for that matter). If Reid can make sure he’s consistently scheming ways to keep the Bucs DL guessing — especially Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul — and off of pressuring Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs will be half the way home in terms of getting a win.
Another way to keep the DL gassed is for Patrick Mahomes to run out of the pocket every now and then. He said his toe turf is nearly 100% healed, as of midweek, so he should be full service in the running game today. Yes, that include the option, which he and Le’Veon Bell have become very good at, but for the purposes of making the DEs chase and keep the D guessing. That’s really what Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have both become Master Craftsmen of… Keeping Em Guessing. Of course, you must be having success along the way and that’s also why I expect to see a large number of RPO (Run Pass Options) and Play Action.
When K.C. has their running game working, it’s game over… usually. The Bucs are tops vs the Run (in YPC, 3.6) so we’ll have to see if Reid can come up with some schemes to get his running game going. However, I do think that’s the plan. With Reid, I usually take note of whether or not his game plan is going to be: 1) a pass-to-run plan, or 2) a run-to-pass plan. In this game, I expect to see a pass-to-run plan initially while testing out his RBs in the process. Then, when he is successful at that, gradually running more, to make the passing game even more effective.
With Patrick Mahomes already mastering the hard count and misdirection, one of the most important skills the Chiefs Offensive linemen bring to the table is discipline. What that means is, not jumping offside or blowing an assignment. Reid’s plan, and Mahoems execution, both give the Chiefs OL, a much shorter to-do list.
Chiefs D vs the Bucs
While the Bucs offense has more weapons than the Patriots, and that’s precisely the reason Tom Brady jumped ship in N.E. but, their skill players aren’t as good as the ones K.C. employs. On top of that, the Chiefs defense is still a much maligned defense. Yes, they’ve been inconsistent this year, but this defense is now 100% healthy (with the exception of rookie LB Willie Gay, and it’s hard to say how much Spags would have been counting on him in this game anyway) and the defensive backfield for K.C. is much better than the defensive backfield of the Bucs.
David Bell and I were laughing just the other day about how the Chiefs CB room was thought to be a weakness heading in to the 2020 season, but now is a strength. One main reason for that improvement is L’Jarius Sneed:
That’s important to know as we head into the offseason and attempt to determine who the Chiefs might be interested in drafting or what position group Veach will be focusing on improving this year. Remember, Veach said he wanted to improve the Safety position between the 2018/2019 seasons — and he did — then this last offseason he improved the CB position. So, the question of the 2021 offseason becomes: what group is ready for some down home Veach cookin’? Here, Peter Schrager sees what many of us see, the Chiefs Defensive backfield’s improvement:
“One of the best rookie seasons you will ever see in a rookie CB.” Wow! The Chiefs DBs vs Brady should be fun viewing while Mahomes vs the Bucs DBs should be equally fun and interesting for Chiefs fans.
Bucs Defense vs the Chiefs
The first player the Bucs D must deal with is Patrick Mahomes, of course. His continuing development may be what is more impressive than anything. Pete Sweeney of ArrowheadPride points out:
If Mahomes is indeed more accurate than ever, then the Bucs are in for a long offseason, beginning before the beginning of the game. Plus, how can you expect to beat The Good Witch of the MidWest” when he shows up in his Ruby Red Slippers? The Chiefs may not be in Kansas anymore, but it’s the Bucs who will have to cope with “The Showtime Tornado!”
The next skill player the Bucs D will have to deal with is: Travis Kelce.
In eight of the Chiefs 16 regular season game in 2020 Travis Kelce had over 100 yards receiving. He had 1,002 yards in 8 of those games and that’s:
- 379 yards more than Rob Gronkowski had over the course of the whole 2020 season
- more than all other NFL TE in 2020 (and Darren Waller was the only other TE with a thousand plus yards = 1,196 yards)
- more than twice as much (in 8 games) than 14 of the top 32 TE in 2020 (even if you doubled their output for the year they’d each still have less that Kelce had in half a season).
Travis Kelce is in his prime and having a career season. There’s no reason to think that will change today. What Kelce has been doing in 2020 isn’t just great, it’s historic:
If Kelce is doubled — and I hope they try that — then Tyreek Hill should be able to continue to be Tyreek Hill… even if they double him:
If WR Sammy Watkins can’t go today, I expect Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson or Byron Pringle to step up and make big plays. The Bucs simply don’t have enough playmakers in their defensive secondary to cover all the talented WRs that Patrick Mahomes has at his disposal.
The Chiefs will be coming with the RB Combo Platter today and I think they’ll have some success against the Bucs D. The three distinct running styles of the Chiefs RBs to most likely get snaps in this game should pose too much for their D to cope with. Clyde Edwards-Heliare’s jump cuts approach, Darrel William’s plow em over approach, and Le’Veon Bell’s quick stops and starts approach, should prove more than they can handle.
Requisite Tertiary Components
Would the Chiefs have beaten the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV without Sammy Watkins, Damien Williams, or the Defense getting late game stops? As much as Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are crucial to a win today, if some other — tertiary — components of the team don’t step up and have a great day, the likelihood of a victory is greatly diminished. You could say, the whole team needs to step up and have a great day. That’s precisely what I expect to happen today. The national media’s obsession with Mahomes, Hill and Kelce makes for fun TV viewing, but only tells a part of the story, and at some point, their obsession gets old.
Favorite Pic/Tweet of the Week
SB LV Commercials
You may want to take a peek at some of this year’s SB Commercial now instead of during the game. Here’s a sneak peek at 17 of them.
I do like, “Can a Burrito Change the World?” but, this is my early favorite with Will Ferrell:
SB LV Predictions
Ryan Tracy of RGR says it will be: Chiefs 34, Bucs 31
CBS Writers Predictions
The prediction I perhaps find most interesting, has to do with who would make the Super Bowl… and then who would win it… BEFORE THE SEASON EVER BEGAN!
ArrowheadOne Writers Predictions
- John Lovelace – I hate being this confident, it scares me. The Chiefs take this game and absolutely stamp a cap on this crazy season! – Chiefs 38, Bucs 17
- Alan Haupt – The Kansas City Chiefs will show why Teamwork is the ultimate ingredient to win Championships. They will also show that this game has been their goal of focus since February 3rd, 2020, hence the #runitback motto. They will dominate the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a score of: Chiefs 38, Bucs 24.
- David Bell – Chiefs outclass Bucs. Mahomes takes over in the 2nd half and the defense stymies the Buc’s aerial game, getting at least 2 picks. – Chiefs 38, Bucs 20
- Michael Travis Rose – I can’t make a final score prediction, don’t want to jinx our Chiefs… but total combined score will be 77.
- James S. McGregor – Chiefs go into Tampa ready, they’ll “be us” and control the game from start to finish – and in all phases. Chiefs complete the “Run It Back” tour, with a win. Chiefs 41, Bucs 28.
- John Cooney – Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes co-MVPs. Chiefs 37, Bucs 24
- Laddie Morse – This will be a total organizational win for the K.C.. The Chiefs experience in Super Bowl LIV helps today and to quote Patrick Mahomes from that game: “They’re about to talk about this forever baby!” Chiefs in a blowout: Chiefs 45, Bucs 24.
Here’s Blane Howards video called “Run It Back.” Had to include it here as it is a wonderful song and makes me verklempt. Enjoy!
I find the words meaningful so if you want to have a sing-a-long, here are the words to
Blane Howard’s song: RUN IT BACK.
If you don’t have time to watch Blane Howard’s whole song, perhaps you may enjoy Travis Kelce celebrating from one year ago. Yes, I added the music:
One more thing, in case you don’t know how to pass the time until the game starts today, take a look at this, because you should get a good chuckle out of it!
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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