Chiefs at Chargers, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – by Price Carter – The Chargers got lucky. That’s right, read that phrase again. The Chargers lucked into something for once. No, they didn’t get lucky by losing All-Pro safety Derwin James for the year or linebacker Drue Tranquill in Sunday’s game. Their luck came in the form of an award winning acting performance by cornerback Casey Hayward. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow made the perfect pass to A.J. Green near the pylon in the end zone, to walk off the Chargers in his first ever NFL start. A yellow flag served as the piece of luck the Chargers needed. A.J. Green was called for an offensive pass interference and the touchdown was taken off the board. Throw in a missed chip-shot field goal due to an injured calf of the Bengals kicker and you have all that it took for the Chargers to beat 2019’s worst NFL team.
1st Down- Chiefs Defense vs. Tyrod Taylor
The Chargers QB, Tyrod Taylor, did not lose the game on Sunday. That statement is a new one for Chargers fans. As the team has moved on from Phillip Rivers who typically was a key contributing factor to most losses the Chargers had. Tyrod was decent in the win over the Bengals completing just over 50% of his passes for 208 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. He also had 6 rush attempts for 7 yards. Tyrod Taylor is a poor man’s Alex Smith. Tyrod is a guy who can be elevated by the talent around him, make plays with his legs occasionally and won’t lose you a game. He also will not win you the game as well. He made some nice plays to jump ball machine Mike Williams in week 1’s game but for the most part Taylor was checking the ball down constantly and relying on his weapons to make plays after the catch.
The Chiefs’ defense needs to keep Tyrod under pressure and contained throughout the game on Sunday. Steve Spagnuolo has done a fantastic job of containing mobile quarterbacks in his tenure as the Chiefs defensive coordinator. He held Lamar Jackson to 42 yards in 2019 and DeShaun Watson rushed for just 24 yards last Thursday. While Taylor did not have great success running the ball last week it’s important the Chiefs’ defense keep him contained and stationary to prevent giving up back breaking runs on third down. In previous games against mobile quarterbacks Spagnuolo has employed LB Dorian O’Daniel to spy the QB and contain him. O’Daniel also collected his first NFL sack last week.
2nd Down- Patrick Mahomes vs. Chargers Secondary
The Chargers have the best secondary in football when Derwin James is healthy. Last year they were the most effective team in limiting Mahomes and then they added Chris Harris Jr. In his two games against the Chargers last year Mahomes was limited to 356 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The Chargers have strong enough personnel to run the 4-3 under scheme as made famous by the Pete Carrol Seattle Seahawks. The scheme depends on pressuring the passer and limiting big chunk plays. You can read more about the 4-3 scheme here, in an old piece by Danny Kelly for SBNation. Part of the reason why the Chargers have been so successful in limiting Mahomes is their ability to control the middle part of the field especially Travis Kelce. In their December game Kelce was limited to 24 yards on 3 catches. Likewise, the Chargers are one of the few teams that can generate enough pass rush with just rushing 4, and can flood the zones with bodies.
Fortunately, the addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire makes the 4-3 under scheme remain honest. This forces the Chargers to place more bodies in the box which gives the advantage to the passing game. I’d expect a heavy dosage of the RPO game (run-pass option) this week to counter the strong secondary of Los Angeles. The RPO game has been effective against the Chargers in the past including Mahomes first career touchdown Lastly, it will be important to minimize mistakes. Mahomes has averaged an interception per game in his 4 matchups in his career. One of the biggest positives from the win over the Texans was, Mahomes willingness to take what the defense gave him rather than forcing the ball down the field. He will need to continue this trend to exploit the holes in their 4-3 under scheme.
3rd Down- Chiefs Pass Protection vs. Charger Pass Rush
I remember in 2019 reading all the “just wait until the league has tape on Mahomes” tweets after his MVP season. Turns out there’s a lot of tape on Mahomes and yet he keeps beating teams. There is no “formula” to beating Mahomes but, there is a blueprint of how it’s done. The best example of this was the Super Bowl. The 49’ers generated a great pass rush with just four rushers. They had athletic linebackers to flood the intermediate zones to limit Kelce and a strong secondary that plays tight man coverage with a safety valve over the top to prevent the big plays. What do defensive coordinator Gus Bradley of the Chargers… and Robert Saleh of the 49ers, have in common? That’s right, they both coached the Seattle Seahawks 4-3 under scheme.
It’s a bit of a hot take, but I believe the best “Bosa” plays in Los Angeles, not in San Francisco: Joey Bosa is a bad man, and a rich man now. However, Joey Bosa has just one sack in his career against the Chiefs and he has never sacked Patrick Mahomes. Mitchell Schwartz has been incredible against Bosa and he will need to continue his dominance to keep Mahomes up right. Melvin Ingram on the other side has been great for the Chargers as well and has had more success against Fisher. In the interior there isn’t a whole lot of pressure, Linval Joseph, who signed from Minnesota in the off-season, is a player who can get sacks, then again, the Chiefs pass protection looked strong against a formidable pass rush last week. Cris Collinsworth helped us all fall — more — in love with Kelechi Osemele, especially in the run blocking. Fisher and Osemele already have a strong rapport together, and that will help mitigate Melvin Ingram.
4th down- Chiefs Defense vs. Chargers Running Backs
It’s hard to think of a better rivalry than the Chiefs and stopping running backs it’s a tale as old as 2014. The Chiefs have struggled against the run and defending running backs as receivers for what has felt like decades. That trend continued last season against the Chargers where Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler recorded 433 total all purpose yards in their two matchups. Ekeler is one of the most dynamic pass catching running backs in the league and the Chargers have a nice looking rookie running back themselves in Joshua Kelly out of UCLA. He looked good in Week 1 against the Bengals.
The Chargers aren’t keeping any secrets they want to run the ball, and protect Tyrod Taylor. They handed the ball off to the running back 33 times in week 1. The Chargers offense depends on the running backs to be involved in their passing and rushing games. Who will be important on the Chiefs end to counter this? Stuffing the run will be difficult as the Chiefs are already without Khalen Saunders and Mike Pennel. K.C. has also struggled to find the person to cover pass catching running backs, and at times it’s been Dan Sorensen, while at other times it’s been Ben Niemann or Dorian O’Daniel. Could this be the game we see Wille Gay get involved? It always seems to be a mismatch for the Chiefs defense who is already hurting for bodies. The way I see the Chargers winning is… they limit Mahomes and gash the Chiefs with their running backs.
The Pick- Chiefs -9 and Under 47
The Chiefs are truly one of those teams that you either hop on the train or get out of it’s way. If you take the Chiefs and the points you’ll likely be right most times. While this is a big number, the Bengals are a terrible defense and they still held the Chargers to just 16 points. I like the under here because the Chargers defense is still strong and has kept Mahomes somewhat limited. Throw in two teams with a solid rushing attack that also can bring down the total as well.
The Prediction – Chiefs 30, Chargers 14
Price Carter — ArrowheadOne
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