Chiefs at Raiders, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – by Price Carter

Chiefs at Raiders, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – by Price Carter – Is this the biggest AFC West game of the Mahomes era? It may seem that way but it’s important to remember context matters when it comes to games. For instance, we look back at the Week 1 game against the Texans and discredit that win because they are a bad team now. However, that week to us the Texans were a division winning team that put the Chiefs down 24-0 in the playoffs. The point is: hindsight is always 20/20. Let us flash back to December 1st, 2019, the Chiefs go into the Bye 7-4 after an alarming loss to the Titans and a lackluster win against the Chargers thanks to 4 Phillip Rivers Interceptions. The media started hyping up the Raiders/ Chiefs games as a battle for the division at Arrowhead. A loss by the Chiefs would have moved them into a tie with the Raiders for the AFC West (even though KC had the tie breaker). Derek Carr was whispered about as an MVP candidate, Josh Jacobs was running wild and Darren Waller was making dynamic plays. Sound familiar?

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The result of that game? The Chiefs won by 31 points. Derek Carr threw 2 picks including a pick-6 to Juan Thornhill. The Chiefs had more to lose in 2019 than they do in this match up. If they lose they still have a full game lead on the Raiders and only have two losses. Sure, it hurts their odds at the one-seed but with limited fans and a bubble scenario looming that maybe null. Let’s add in the disrespect shown by the Raiders in their victory at Arrowhead this year and Andy Reid coming off a bye. The Chiefs have even more motivation to win in the Raiders new home stadium. Expect the Chiefs best shot in this game… and it could get ugly.

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1st Down- Stop the Run

It’s no secret what the Raiders want to do with their offense. It’s a tried and true formula that helped Case Keenum get to an AFC Championship and Jimmy Garoppolo to the Super Bowl: running the ball effectively to set up play action passing to vertical threat wide receivers. The Chiefs did not lose to the Raiders because they couldn’t stop the run. They lost because they gave up 3 completions of 30+ yards. The run alone is not enough to beat the Chiefs, however a strong enough run game can be dangerous causing hesitation in the defense. A slight hesitation is all it takes for players like Henry Ruggs and Nelson Agholor to beat coverage over the top. 

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If the Chiefs defense is able to force the Raiders into obvious passing downs and eliminate the threat of the run this will allow them to put better personnel on the field to handle the vertical threats. Obviously, stopping the run matters situationally. The Chiefs had two chances to get the ball back down 8 in Kansas City earlier in the year and couldn’t stop Jacobs. The only reason they were in that situation was because of the large chunk plays they’d already given up.

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2nd Down- Protect Patrick

One of the most surprising and impactful factors in the game at Arrowhead was the amount of pressure the Raiders generated. This was surprising for many reasons: Vegas is not known as a team that generates a lot of pressure with their pass rush or via the blitzes also, it’s not like the Chiefs offensive line to get beat so soundly by just 4 rushers. It’s worth noting in the last game too that Mahomes was still going through his phase of drifting back in the pocket too far. This has been a recurring issue for Mahomes but he seems to correct it as quickly as it appears. When put in context though it’s not really surprising the offensive line struggled in this situation. 

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Mitchell Schwartz had clearly been battling a back injury for weeks that no doubt impacted him in this game and ultimately took him out of the lineup, since the Buffalo game. Starting left guard Kelechi Osemele suffered a season ending injury in the first drive of this game as well. All of this allowed the Raiders to apply pressure with 4 DL, and then flooding the intermediate and deep zones, limiting the passing game. The seriousness of this issue might even be more critical as the Chiefs placed Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz and Martinas Rankin all on the Reserve/ Covid-19 list due to contact tracing. Fisher though practiced on Thursday and hopefully, by early Sunday, we’ll know if he’ll be available for the game. While the pandemic is hurting the Chiefs, it is also hurting the Raiders, as they’ll be without their 2019 number four overall pick, Clelin Ferrell, and high priced free agent Trent Brown.

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3rd Down- Pressure Carr

One of the biggest differences from the 2019 Chiefs defense… to the 2020 defense is the lack of pass rush from players other than Frank Clark or Chris Jones. In 2019 Chris Jones and Frank Clark accounted for 17 of the 45 team sacks or about 38%. So far in 2020 they have right at 50% of the team’s total sacks. While pressures are valuable as well… sacks are the priority. The tandem is definitely the back bone of the pass rush but the lack of production from other players is forcing the Chiefs to blitz. The Chiefs blitz on 38% of their defensive snaps which is 3rd highest in the league, and Ravens fans can tell you what a good offense can do to the blitz.

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Between the injuries to Alex Okafor (full participant this week in practice), Mike Danna and Taco Charlton the line has had real issues getting consistent rush from the other side of Clark. Four of the team’s total sacks have come from corners or linebackers on the blitz, it’s noteworthy that Tyrann Mathieu has 0 sacks this season thus far (he had 2 last year and 3 the year before). In almost every game that the Chiefs have won against the Raiders, they have made Carr uncomfortable in the pocket. This trend needs to continue. 

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4th Down- Execution

As Mike Tyson famously said: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” The Chiefs definitely got punched in the mount in Kansas City, the Raiders came out firing and did anything and everything to win the game. The Chiefs had numerous misfires that led to their execution really suffering in this game. Execution is one of those terms we all roll our eyes at when a coach stands at the podium and explains away a loss citing a lack of executing a  good scheme. However, in this instance the lack of execution cannot be ignored when discussing the outcome of the last game. 

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Part of what makes the Chiefs the Super Bowl favorite, is how much they can overcome to still win. Their talent and scheme is so superior that they can get down 24-0 to an elite QB and still win by 20. However, not even the explosive offense could overcome all of the things that went wrong in Arrowhead in October. If the Chiefs go into Vegas and even play their “B” level game they should dominate. 

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Prediction- Chiefs 41, Raiders 20

The Chiefs have had true motivation in about 2 games this year: the Ravens and the Bills, and both teams are decidedly better than the Raiders. Plus, they beat both teams by multiple possessions. It bears repeating that Andy is 18-3 off a Bye Week and the Chiefs have a little extra motivation this week. I expect Kansas CIty to throttle the Raiders today. Most of America might be going to bed in the 3rd quarter.

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Price Carter — ArrowheadOne

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