Chiefs at Raiders, Week 18: OPEN THREAD

Laddie Morse

Although the NFL Playoffs don’t begin for another week, the real games begin today. Since the number one Playoff seed is on the line — meaning the Kansas City Chiefs need to win to get the number one seed — then the real games begin today. While I usually don’t expect the creative plays of Andy Reid to show up until the playoffs have begun, I believe we can expect some of that Reid Imagination to surface today vs the Las Vegas Raiders. You know how he’s always referring to the new plays he makes up during the spring and summer months when the Chiefs are not in the middle of their season… well, we should see some of that “never before seen” schemes starting today.

In an article he wrote for sportsline.com, Jason La Canfora says:

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“I expect Josh McDaniels and the Raiders staff to try to make a point here with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback and play this game to the hilt. … The Raiders have scored 30 or more in two of their last last three, and I think this is another shootout. … Four of the last five Chiefs games have had one-score margins.”

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I can’t disagree with La Canfora at all. The Raiders have nothing to lose but one more game in the loss column. They’re not going to the playoffs at 6-and-10 so they’ll likely make a shoot-out of this game and remember, they only lost to the Chiefs by one measly point — 30-to-29 — the last time they played in October. At a time when the Chiefs need to be hitting on all cylinders, they aren’t. Their Special Teams woes are enough to turn a win into a loss. The Chiefs may be 13-and-3 right now but they basically stumbled their way to that record instead of powering their way to that .813 winning percentage.

On the other hand, many are looking at the Chiefs record as “do-just-enough-to-win” record, and no matter how to you look at it, the Chiefs do have a 13-and-3 record.

Sorting Out the Playoff Scenarios

Here’s three scenarios offered by CBS Sports:

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Since that graphic is offered by CBS Sports and part of their video explaining what will happen as a resut of the owners approving a new playoff proposal, let have a look:

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The major take-away I have is… the system they’ve chosen to act upon is not perfect. Could they have done something else? Sure. Are they bound to change it later? Not at all likely.

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Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense

The Chiefs offense presents quite a contrast from their defense. The offense is ranked by ESPN as the leagues’ #1 Offense with 6,683 total yards gained, and no other team has more than 400 yards per game and K.C. is at 417 YPG. In the Red Zone (20 yard line to the End Zone), only two teams average a better percentage of scoring TDs once there, and they are both in the NFC (Philly and the Cowboys). K.C. scores at 68.66% clip.

In the meantime, the Raiders Defense ranks 26th in the NFL. Will the Chiefs offense put up a lot of points today? I expect that to happen.

Chiefs Defense vs Raiders Offense

The Raiders offense is ranked 10th in the NFL by ESPN gaining 5,714 on the year. That’s 5,714 YPG. While their running game has been lauded because of Josh Jacobs — who leads the NFL with 1,608 rushing yards — their offense as a whole ranks 16th in the league with 1,960 rushing yards.

In the meantime, the Chiefs Defense ranks 12th in the NFL. Do I expect the Raiders to put up a bunch of points on the Chiefs defense? Some, yes. A ton? No. Covers.com says the Chiefs run defense ranks 9th and the Raiders run defense ranks 17th. That should help us understand the difference in the final score of this game.

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Referee Assignment – Scott Novak’s Crew

The Chiefs have had the Scott Novak crew referee one of their games this year, in week one, when they played the Arizona Cardinals in Phoenix. His crew called three penalties on the Chiefs that day and two of those were on the Special Teams. Kind of outlines that the Chiefs have had STs issues all season long and no matter if you reason that many of those Special Teamers were rookies, it’s true, none the less. The Chiefs beat the Cardinals that day: 44-to-21.

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Allegiant Stadium and Weather

The NFL has but a few stadiums with a roll out field and Allegiant Stadium has one of those.

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Otherwise, the game is all indoors. We can be glad that the field is all grass and so our players should be gifted with a similar surface as they have in Arrowhead. The outside weather looks like this during game time:

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Emotions This Week and the Full Moon

While I am personally not buying into the “a Full Moon will drive you crazy” belief system, yet as a classroom teacher of 39 years, I could predict which kids would act out during certain times of the month –> when there was a full moon. Both of my cousins are nurses and they have both shared with me how the cycles of the Moon can have an affect on patients coming into their hospital. With that in mind, I present to you a video on the nature of our planet and how it may… or may not… affect us:

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BTW, it was a Full Moon on Thursday evening of this week. Also, Damar Hamlin’s GoFundMe Foundation Community Toy Drive which had $2,500 as a goal, reached $8,094,850 on Friday evening.

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Predictions

While many have looked to the Raiders QB change, with Jarrett Stidham replacing Derek Carr, their reasoning for choosing the Raiders is Stidham’s performance last week against an elite defense in the 49ers. Which was very good, in fact he threw for 365 yards. However, now that there is tape on Stidham the Chiefs D has had that to look at, which should be a plus for them.

The Raiders are 30th in the NFL in total sacks with 25. Although, Maxx Crosby is very good, he’s tied for 9th in the NFL, and has 11.5 sacks. He’s a handful and K.C. will need to have a plan to keep him double-teamed at all times. Also, the Vegas Raiders are 27th in the NFL in turnover differential, then again, K.C. is 26th. The Raiders are 31st in team take aways per game with .8, but .7 of those came in Away Games, so the deciding factor in this game could be, who is able to take the ball away the most. As Mitch Holthus has said (see video below @ the 18:40 mark), the Raiders have given up the most passing yards in the NFL to running backs out of the backfield. Since we know the Chiefs are excellent in that department, this could also be a deciding factor in this game, and we can expect Jerick McKinnon to play a big role there this week.

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With the Chiefs needing to win this game and their defense playing much better, as of late, I can see a big win for the Chiefs. However, with nothing to play for, I can also see the Raiders winning this game by taking control on the ground and thereby taking control of the clock. While I don’t like coin tosses to decide things, I’m going with K.C..

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Chiefs 34, Raiders 21.

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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