Chiefs at Ravens, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – By Price Carter

Chiefs at Ravens, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – By Price Carter – Let’s just take a second to appreciate this. Take off your Chiefs red colored glasses and just think about what is going to occur tonight. A few months ago we set around our homes endlessly, with Ø sports all fearing for the NFL season. There were more questions than answers when it came to the fate of the football season. Would the players accept the protocols? Would there be fans? Would there be dozens of players missing each week after testing positive? Would every team be without multiple starters due to opt outs? While most of those questions have been answered we all need to appreciate where we are today. The NFL deserves a great amount of credit for how they have coped with the pandemic. 

Because of the league’s resilience, we are treated to what has been the most anticipated regular season game in over a year. The last time I can remember a game this anticipated it was Chiefs at Rams on Monday Night Football in Los Angeles. The stage is set for a game that might be even better than Rams-Chiefs. This game features back-to-back MVPs, elite pass rushers, dynamic tight ends and the highest stakes there can be for a week 3 game. So just remember, win, lose, or draw, we are so fortunate to have this game, this head coach, quarterback and opportunity.

1st Down: Pass Protection vs. Ravens Pass Rush

After Solomon Thomas and Nick Bosa went down with season ending injuries I think it is safe to say the Chargers have the best defensive front in football. The Chargers might be the only team in the league who can generate enough pass rush while having the right amount of quality of players in coverage. The Ravens while still formidable on the defensive line, are not the Chargers. Which might be a relief to the Chiefs offensive line who did not have a banner day in Los Angeles. The most concerning problem was not only the pass protection taking a step backwards, but also the run blocking struggled as well. The Ravens have some great playmakers on the defensive line: Matthew Judon, Calais Campbell, Derek Wolfe and L.J. Forte, and all can disrupt plays. 

What’s even more noteworthy is the amount of pressure the Ravens bring. Baltimore has the third highest blitz rate (47.1%) of any team. Generally, that strikes fear in the hearts of most quarterbacks, but Mahomes has been killer when blitzed. In his first 3 seasons as a starter, Mahomes has been one of the best against the blitz. If the Raven continue to bring their exotic blitzes against Mahomes, it’s an all or nothing proposition that may work, but will eventually fail them. Especially since Mahomes simply does not take sacks (3rd lowest sack rate). If Kansas City can manage the blitz and take advantage of mismatches this will be key to a victory tonight. 

2nd Down- Andy Reid vs. John Harbaugh 

The coaching matchup is critical in any game, but this game it is so prevalent that it has to be part of the narrative. John Harbaugh is one of the few coaches in the league who is truly elite and understands the value of field position and possession. Most Chiefs fans will remember last year’s game against Baltimore where Harbaugh was ridiculed for being hyper-aggressive with 4th downs and 2 point conversions. He seems to be one of the few head coaches in the league who seems to understand that the Chiefs defense isn’t particularly strong, especially against the run. When you have a dynamic offense like the Ravens do, and give them an extra down, they can be almost unstoppable. 

Have the Chiefs been holding back some plays for tonight? Hopefully. Andy has one of the greatest offensive minds in football. We know that he has a few plays designed special for Monday night that will all just make us shake our heads and chuckle.  Coach Reid needs to match Harbaugh’s aggressiveness. We’ve seen that from Andy in games before but in big games like this it becomes even more important. One element that stands out is short yardage. The last two games have had crucial 4th and shorts both of which the offense elected to plunge ahead with a traditional run play. While both plays were successful it would be nice to get back some of that creativity we saw on 4th down in the postseason.

Another element to this game is how much will these teams hold back from one another? The likelihood that these two teams see each other again in January is high. How much do these coaches want to tip their hand to the other. In the grand scheme of things, this game could decided the #1 seed in the AFC, which is even more important this season with the changed playoff format. Do they throw their best stuff out there to try and to get a leg up in the race for the 1 seed? Or do they hold back for when it matters most? 

3rd Down- Stop the dang run

Consistency in life is a wonderful thing. The Chiefs defense admires consistency as well, but they have consistently not been able to stop the run since 2014. In some ways Patrick Mahomes might actually be the Chiefs run defender simply because he forces teams to throw the ball to keep pace with him. Yes I am being pessimistic about the Chiefs run defense even though I know they shut down Derrick Henry in January. This might be the best running team in the history of the NFL given the fact that they broke the NFL rushing yards record last year and then drafted J.K. Dobbins. The Ravens have 3 running backs that are all game breakers, and at any point any of them could get hot. Likewise, we all know what Lamar Jackson can do with the ball as a runner. 

While Lamar has developed so much as a passer, the best way to beat him is to force him into situations where play action has no threat. Lamar’s passing is all based on the run. If you take away the threat of the run, he doesn’t get those nice 1-on-1 matchups. In some ways this offense is comparable to what the Chiefs faced in the 49’ers, just without the dynamic running QB. The Chiefs need to be gap and assignment sound and force the Ravens into 3rd and long situations. Look for Spags to utilize athletic Dorian O’Daniel or Willie Gay Jr. to spy and contain Lamar in obvious passing situations. 

4th Down- Come Out Hot

We all know the Chiefs can come back from a deficit. They have proven time and time over that they can come back on most any team. This might be the one team they can’t come back on. Lamar Jackson is 19-0 when leading at halftime. This team is too dynamic on defense, and too dominant running the ball, to fall behind to. If the Chiefs find themselves down 2 scores early as they have been doing a lot lately, it could be the difference in the game. Those first 15 scripted plays by Andy Reid need to really get the Chiefs into the end zone. Also, the team’s philosophy when winning the coin toss is to always defer. This might be one of the few games that receiving the ball might be the better choice. 

On the other hand Lamar Jackson is 0-5 when losing at halftime and forcing him into pass only situations is what neutralizes the MVP. This game presents an interesting question. Which is more dangerous? A team that is impossible to beat when leading? Or a team that is impossible to put away? The Chiefs have proven that they are never truly out of a game and the Ravens have proven that they don’t let teams back into a game. Which means more? The one advantage to the Chiefs is their experience. We know the lights will not be too bright for them and they can handle high pressure situations.

The Bet- Chiefs +3.5

This line has gotten out of hand in my opinion, considering there is little to no home field advantage nowadays. The Chiefs have been out of mind for most bettors, it’s been 18 days since the Chiefs walloped the Texans on Thursday night. All most common NFL bettors remember, is the game in LA. Giving Mahomes more than a field goal as an underdog is unheard of. Lock it in +3.5.

The Prediction-  Ravens 41 Chiefs 40

This game means more to the Ravens than it does the Chiefs. The Ravens need to make a statement that they can win a game when it matters most. Baltimore no doubt has circled this game since the day the schedule has come out and they will spare nothing to win this game. They are on a mission this season and I just think that they are playing better than any team in the league right now. They are extremely healthy at the moment and everything is trending their way. It needs to be remembered that this is a Week 3 game. Last year the Chiefs sat at 6-4 after losing to the Titans… then won 6 straight and went to the Super Bowl. While this game can seem huge in the context of a full 16 game season, it’s incredibly early and doesn’t truly impact either team that much. I think it will be epic and close, but I give the slight nod to the Ravens.

Price Carter — ArrowheadOne

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