Chiefs at Ravens: Preview and OPEN THREAD

David Bell and Laddie Morse

Week Two for the Kansas City Chiefs will be on the road as they take on the Ravens in M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. While many are giving this game to the Chiefs it may turn out to be a much tougher battle than expected. Yes, the Ravens are down three starting running backs, but the player who did start in week one, Ty’Son Williams, looked like anything but a backup against the Raiders when he went for 65 yards on 9 carries and a 7.2 YPC average.

That’s one thing the Ravens have always been able to do is, run the ball. Here’s a quick look at the best rushing teams in the NFL last year:

Not only did the Ravens beat the Titans — the #2 rushing team in the league — by 381 yards, but a 5.5 yards per carry average is stupendous. Remember, Jamaal Charles averaged 5.49 YPC and Jim Brown averaged 5.22 YPC and they were the only ones to average over 5.0 YPC in their careers. Yes, most of that was due to Lamar Jackson who rushed for 1,005 yards with a 6.3 YPC, but that still leaves 2,066 yards gained by other rushers for the Ravens.

Time to Tackle Well

What that means is, the Chiefs will have to do a much better job of wrapping up when they tackle a runner and making sure they don’t miss and whiff.

If Steve Spagnuolo can indeed get his defenders to tackle well in this game, he should be bale to force a number of 3rd-and-long situations. If he can do that, his defense should succeed a high number of times. ProFootball Focus (PFF) reveals that:

“Spagnuolo is particularly aggressive on third downs, playing the fourth-highest percentage of Cover 0 over the last three seasons. He took the opposing offense off the field 68% of the time when they played that coverage, the sixth-best rate in the league.”

PFF also calls Spags “a mad scientist, as he’s concocted all sorts of interesting coverage rotations to get into a bevy of different schemes” and if he’s able to do that, his defense should be able to contain Lamar Jackson.

Nick Jacobs has a piece called: “Nick Jacobs’ game plan: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens” (novel title huh?) in which he lists these, so I’ve given you a synopsis:

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1. Have an answer for their blitz – [Baltimore’s] Defensive Coordinator Wink Martindale will likely test out the Chiefs newly formed offensive line early. If the team has an answer for their blitzes, it will likely yield a similar result.

2. Contain Lamar Jackson and bring a fifth late – Lamar Jackson is the key to the Ravens offense …. The ends must contain up-field and pin him in.

3. Be okay with the check down – [Because…] Baltimore has serious speed in their back seven. 

4. Two and three tight for the run – the Chiefs may need to be okay establishing the run and slowing down the Ravens defense.

5. Bunches in Red Zone get you the middle – The Bunch formation is tough for the Ravens to defend in the Red Zone… [K.C.] should find routine success with their strategy.

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While I’m not one to pit two QBs against each other, because they never do actually play each other, let’s take a look at the QB matchup:

Inside the Pylon defines EPA:

Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points (EP) of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play. The Expected Points framework helps translate raw gains into value.

Inside the Pylon gives a good example of the meaning of EPA: “A three-yard gain on first-and-10 is pretty different than a three-yard gain on third-and-two, something not usually captured in conventional statistics.” That’s why using EPA can come in handy.

September

The fact that Patrick Mahomes hasn’t lost in September during his career is no comfort to me. Could it mean that the law of averages makes this game even more likely that it’s his time to lose? Yes, I believe he’s the best quarterback in the history of the game, but even the best of them had losses, and that includes, in September. Yes, I said the Chiefs will go 17-and-0 this year, but every game must be played and not just tallied on a score sheet.

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Ideal Football Weather

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Here’s a game preview by David Bell called:

“Four Keys on Defense”

Sunday Eve, the Chiefs face a good Ravens team under the lights. I have been thinking about the approach that the Chiefs will use to counter the Ravens ground game and to keep Lamar Jackson in check.

1. Constant Pressure from the Blitz — even on Run Downs

It is not necessary to do a lot of study of past Chiefs games versus the Ravens to understand that Steve Spagnuolo will use the Blitz against the Ravens. Last year, they didn’t worry about what to expect from the Ravens: Run or Pass they Blitzed. It worked. The Blitz ruffled feathers, kept the Ravens guessing as to who Spagnuolo would send and from where on the field.

Here is what I expect to see: Cornerback Blitzers from either side. We have the talent to do that. For example, L’Jarius Sneed has demonstrated that he can pressure the passer or get to him for a sack. Even when it doesn’t result in a sack, it results in a “pressured” Pass.

Using the off-ball Safety is another key – Daniel Sorensen is adept at playing up in the box. From that close-up to the LoS role, he can beeline to the QB. That has worked in past games against all NFL foes, including the Ravens. Using a LB is another means of slicing through their pass blocking scheme. My first choice here is to use the instincts of newcomer Nick Bolton. Also, did you notice last week how many times the defensive set called by Spagnuolo used the base 4-3? Frequently, the Chiefs had Hitch, Niemann, and Bolton on the field on the same snap.

Laddie Morse had an article called: “Improving the Blitz and Rush in 2021” that addressed the outlook of using the Blitz on August 4th and quoted Spags:

“I don’t know that it’s going to look any different. I’m hoping that the little tweaks we have, will make a difference. Cause there’s some areas we need to get better in, and that’s what we’re hoping for.”

I expect to see the count north of 20 snaps.

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2. Two Spies In the Mix, Sometimes Three

The Chiefs will use two players behind the Front Four to contain Jackson. Jackson uses his feet when under pressure. Last season his completion percentage on the move improved against the league; yes, it improved overall but there is an exception: versus the Chiefs.

Expect to see S Tyrann Mathieu and LB Nick Bolton (Spies 1 and 2) both doing this chore. Both have good instincts and that is using Nick Bolton’s known knack for quick diagnosis of plays from his collegiate days and it is an already proven talent that Bolton exhibited in the game versus the Browns. Bolton figured into stopping the Cleveland 7 times (4 tackles and 3 assists) in his very first NFL game. Spagnuolo is going to keep Bolton on the field for this reason, but also due to his speed. Bolton has computer-like diagnosis that is going to benefit the Chiefs from the LB position for eons to come. His twitchy play analysis and speed to counter what the Ravens are doing, will help the defense, whether it is a run or a scramble by Lamar Jackson.

The third Spy Will be Daniel Sorensen playing up in the back end of the box. Sorensen’s football savvy is what has made him a major contributor for the past seven seasons in K.C.. Dirty Dan excels in this type of situational defense. We will see Sorensen make plays during this game? Count on it.

At the same time, our very own “Landlord” definitely brings an upside to problem-solving Jackson’s feet.

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3. Stout Two Count Coverage by the Secondary

Mike Hughes has proved to be a valuable addition to the Cornerback room. In Week One, he came up with an interception that effectively ended the game versus the Browns.

The Chiefs have the talent in the Secondary to cover their receivers. A real question will be whether the Chiefs can succeed in eliminating the TE and damage that could cause because a LB would be covering a crossing route either in man-up or zone coverage. With the injuries on the Ravens team, especially their LT Ronnie Stanley (who is “out” for this game), it’s no secret that the Ravens have been hit by the injury bug all offseason. 15 players have found their assignment on the IR so far and the Ravens also lost OG Tyre Phillips to the IR, so he won’t return until week five.

The Ravens are playing their second game sans two major talents along the offensive line. Keep that construct in mind, so if the Chiefs secondary holds serve through a two-second count, and either Hitch or Bolton can prevent an open Tight End… then give that advantage to the Chiefs. The Chiefs have the talent in the secondary to accomplish the job. Considering the woes along the Ravens offensive line, if the Chiefs get an early lead, the game could end up a blowout.

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4. Frank Clark’s Basic Steady Game — The Ravens Must Account for him

What makes the Spies work is that Frank Clark returns to the field. We all have had our critique of Clark. It is related to the fact that he has not fulfilled the expectation for the Number of Sacks that were on our radar. What is often overlooked about Clark is the fact that his fundamental play overall is top-level. He supports the defense well against the run, but what is more, he sets the edge and ranks among the best at it, ensuring any run to the outside gets turned inside where the LBs can clean up.

In Week One without Clark on the field, Jarran Reed, Tershawn Wharton and Derrick Nnadi had difficulty during the game because the blocking scheme could focus on shutting down Reed with a double team. With Clark out, the pass rush from the interior was largely nullified. This week, the Ravens must choose who they are going to double down on. Clark, Reed or Jones.

If the rush or containment of the Ravens running game works where the players along the front four prepare more straight-up blocking, then they will aid in keeping Jackson in the pocket, and then Jackson will get nervous feet. Pressure from Clark and Jones outside will contain Lamar enough that it will be difficult for him to get to the edge. This is where the Blitz and Spies come into the picture.

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David Bell and Laddie Morse

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