Chiefs at Titans, Week 10: OPEN THREAD

Chiefs at Titans; Week 10: OPEN THREAD – by David Bell – more than anything, I was confident that the Kansas City Chiefs offense could carry the team to a good cede in the playoffs. I believed K.C. would be 13-3. I knew the defense was being rebuilt: a new headhunter was in town plus I knew that it would take 6 games for the defense to really gel… and then, we could see what we could see.

Boy, Howdy!

The defense started out incredibly slow, giving up the run left, right, up the middle. Then came a get well game versus the Broncos. From there, the Spagnuolo D has shown several a crucial differences than any defense we have seen since Andy Reid has been a head coach. Before that, I began to get a sick feeling because players Veach spent money on were not playing up to snuff. The Linebacker corp specifically, was doing a miserable job.

Then, something happened at Mile High with Patrick Mahomes knocked out… the Defense, which gave up a score, was actually playing good football. From that point on, the Chiefs defense suddenly was, ferocious.

Spagnuolo and… “THE BLITZ”!

Successful substitutions were being made… players legs were getting rest… Frank Clark finally had a lights out game… and the secondary shut down the aerial game along with whipping Broncos QB quarterback Joe Flacco. Spags used disturbances, hurries, hits, sacks, fumbles, an interception and forced a completion percentage in the low 40th percentiles. It was a wonderful turnaround.

The game against the Green Bay Packers demonstrated that the Chiefs could play with a top team in the NFL, then they beat the Vikings with a shifted game plan, completely different from the previous two games. In the previous two losses, at home, Mahomes was struggling with an ankle injury and the defense held the game close losing by one score.

Three Games in a row, the Chiefs defense showed signs of excellence. They moved from the bottom of the rankings, 29th… to 23rd, in overall stats and the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and improved game after game until they reached an 11th in NFL ranking. Finally, the Chiefs appear to have a defense worth talking about.

Offensive Insults

When Mahomes was hurt, there was much hand-wringing and mumbling under the breath, cursing aloud and down right depression settled on fans… and after the loss to the Packers, on the team to some extent, per player observations.

With Matt Moore at the helm, the Chiefs had a Jr. High coach at QB who had no great successes in his career steering a team. Fans bemoaned that Chad Henne was still on the IR and that Kyle Shurmur was not NFL ready and they clamored: Matt Moore?! 

It turns out that the integrity, calmness and moxy of Matt Moore carried the team to a 2-1 record over the 3 game span and saved the day! Not only that, but you could see it in his behavior during games, even when he was being confronted with desperate situations. Fine job… and really, a top notch job by Matt Moore.

Note: as the team approaches next year, and they keep Moore, Henne and Shurmur, I would think that a healthy Matt Moore could bring in some coin. Moore’s QB numbers have been outstanding in this situation.

No, the team with Moore at the helm, is not as dynamic as it is with the reigning MVP, but it has performed well enough to win 2 and 1 was going away plus they let the potential win versus the Pack get away from them. Still the Chiefs scored enough to win, using the offense side of my magic number 20. The Chiefs did not lose ground on any team in the AFC West and looks to be the top favorite to win the AFC West again… and I believe they will.

Basic Numbers

The most important stat, is a W. Fortunately for the Chiefs, although they’ve lost three games, they finished to the season’s midway point with a 5-3 record. They’ve done so with 6 starters missing, including Mahomes, having to rely largely on the second team to come through.

During the injury avalanche, important players missing time intermixed since week one, and that’s an important observation.

I didn’t ever think an undefeated season was more than a glimmer in the distance but a record of 13-3 was very likely. Even at this point, the Chiefs must win out to get there but with Mahomes back and other starters returning the odds improve. The Chiefs play AFC West teams and among those games are improved teams in the Raiders and Chargers, the latter the Chiefs play at Mexico City and later at home in KC.

Today K.C. faces a physical Titan’s team and are on a three game losing streak to the Nashville bunch. They’ll also face the Patriots and Bears. No game is easy in the stretch but after the Chargers comes the Bye. The Good news is that, as of now, they face only one team with a winning record the rest of the way: the Patriots.

I still think 13-3 can be achieved — the big stumbling block, is, of course, the game against the Patriots and that is a tough situation for the Chiefs to face to make that record. With all the horses out of our barn, I believe the Chiefs are the better team. Ladner Morse published a comparison of the Chiefs and Patriots and used some interesting numbers to make the comparison in his Thursday piece: “Hello, Good Bye.” He indicates the Chiefs offense is better than the defense of the Pats. Conversely he showed that the Chiefs defense is superior to the offense of the Patriots.

The question is: do the Chiefs believe they will win and play like champions? It will need to be a game where players in all Three Phases of the game, play well which is exactly what is required to win the Super Bowl.

The Coming Upswing!

Players are returning from the injury list. By the the time we get past the Bye Week, presuming no major injuries surface, the Chiefs should be healed and ready for the stretch! Hopefully Andy Reid will have a full complement of starters and an increased number of players who will contribute at a high level on both sides of the ball.

Situational Players of Import

Eric Fisher’s groin: to this point, Cam Erving has done the duty and he has struggled in each game. Here, getting the starter back is a top need.

Andrew Wylie’s ankle: Wylie missed games due to a sprained ankle. Martinas Rankin has substituted and played very well at LOG. Wylie then returned and play ROG as Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, suffered an ankle injury and has been unable to play for two straight games.

Situational Solutions

When Fisher Returns, Cam Erving can take spot snaps to give Fisher rest.  Martinas Rankin has played well enough and has the NFL experience to boot, to take over the starting role at LOG which is how I think it should unfold. This leaves Austin Reiter at offensive Center who would then be the least experienced starter on the offensive line. Wylie would swing across the interior roles. Cam Erving would be a substitute-guard giving spot snaps where necessary. [I’m sorry Cam. I stuck up for you for two years and your play has been sub-par.] LDT would get back to ROG and the bookend offensive tackles would return to original format: Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz.

As It Stands

As of right now, the Chiefs are healthy at QB with Mahomes back. The Demons of Speed — WRs — are all available to play: Hill, Watkins, Hardman, Robinson and Pringle. Running backs are all ready to roll.

On the defensive side, Okafor is going to be the last to return (high ankle sprain). Clark is practicing and close to being fully healthy. The corners while waiting on Fuller, Rashad Fenton has had extremely meaningful starter snaps and has demonstrated thus far, that he can handle the job. There is going to be some competition for snaps from Fenton. Charvarius Ward, in his first full season as a starter has shown he belongs in that role. Breeland really struggled for two games but has now settled into it. 

I really like our safeties, they’ve shut down opposition and played well up in the box. The tandem of Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill has done wonders for making the starting Safeties one of the top pair of safeties in the NFL. Dan Sorensen mixes in heavily but his role shifted back to the box and Jordan Lucas is contributing, even if mostly on Special Teams.

Even the Linebackers have played well recently. Ragland has had a resurgence, Wilson is playing very well and even the much maligned Hitchens has performed well. Right now, Derron Lee and Dorian O’Daniel have not earned major snaps and that has been a surprise to many. My point though, is that with Spagnuolo’s defense sets, he has unleashed the LB’s in a manner where they can pursue the ball. It has been big.

The front four has also had some surprises. With Clark out, Tanoh Kpassagnon has more than flashed. Chris Jones returned to the lineup with a big game, though he was not the starter. Nnadi and Saunders also have held up the middle and they have been able to use Jones outside to great success. The addition of Mike Pennel to the 0-and-1 gap and NT role is a blessing. We now have an immovable object in the middle who can also force other teams to double team him on the pass rush. I cannot tell you how much I thought this was a missing ingredient since Dontari Poe departed. With Spagnuolo’s frequent shifting and substituting the front four is rested during each Chiefs possessions. It is paying off with the big men and keeps the opposition guessing.

My outlook is positive. The Chiefs have a very good roster and they are going to the playoffs. The team would  have to collapse across seven games to fail to win the division. That is the least I expect. They could still lose a game or two and finish that way, for example, 11-5 or heaven forbid, 10-6. If they finish 9-7, I really don’t want them to appear in the playoffs. 13-3 is the goal, and it was my prediction. I’ll stick with that.

Titans?

Turnabout is fair play. The Chiefs get physical on defense and offense both, exerting mastery against a very good team. This will be due to front four substitutions and all players contributing at a high level. Like preceding weeks, the Chiefs will handle the Titan run game. With a lead, they force the Titans to an aerial game and finally, the secondary gets a couple of picks. With Moore at the helm, 31-20. With Mahomes, 36-17.

David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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