When the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Cincinnati Bengals, just four weeks ago, the main reason they lost was, the defense. The final score was 34-to-31, but many are acting like the Bengals blew out the Chiefs. Here’s what StatMuse shows about the Chiefs record and rank over the past five seasons (the top ten winning teams in the league):
Some have even compared the 2021 Bengals to the 2018 Chiefs, who won it all, but they don’t even show up on this list above. What many may also be forgetting is, these Chiefs are a different team since last season. In fact, these Chiefs are different team since they lost to the Bengals and different, as in, better.
Those who follow the Chiefs are well aware that they’ve grown as a unit of players since they started the season. If you apply that same ability to learn to the past month, we should see a better team tomorrow than we did on January 2nd, in week 17, of the regular season.
The Chiefs Defense
While the improvement of the defense from weeks 1-8 to… weeks 9-16, are well documented, it’s the performance of the D since week 16 that is a concern. Since week 16 they’ve allowed:
- 34 points to the Bengals in a loss
- 24 points to the Broncos in a win
- 21 Points to the Steelers in a Wildcard win
- 36 points to the Bills in a Divisional win
That’s 29.75 allowed points per game. While three of those games came against playoff teams, that far exceeds the 17 or 20 point cutoff that David Bell has put forth as being the mark of a good defensive performance. So, why trust in this defense when it comes to the Bengals the second time around?
DC Steve Spagnuolo said this about facing the Bengals:
“Hopefully, when that same situation happens in this game, we can find a way to get it knocked out or have him go throw it somewhere else, but we need to make those plays. Our guys understand that, and if we do that, certainly the outcome will be a lot better than it was last time.”
If Spags calls a similar defensive alignment for the Chiefs in critical situations, you can expect some of the same results. As Charles Goldman notes:
“This time around, he’s hoping to see some of those plays go the way of his defense in the shape of a turnover or pass breakup.”
Some fans are worried that Spags has also said: “We do what we do. We are what we are,” but I’d be shocked if he makes zero adjustments. If Spags focuses his attention on stopping the Bengals passing attack, that appears to be the best pathway to a win. The running game of the Bengals is good, but not so good that it could lead them to a win. From a piece at ArrowheadPride called, “Chiefs-Bengals boils down to the approach of Steve Spagnuolo“:
“If you’re Steve Spagnuolo you’re game planning around stopping Tyler Boyd, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and getting pressure on Joe Burrow… I don’t fear Joe Mixon at all. He’s a great running back but he doesn’t possess the fear factor of a Derrick Henry, or a Jonathan Taylor. He’s not the type of running back you need to game plan around.”
Bengals QB Joe Burrow went 30/39 on January 2nd, for 446 yards passing. The key to that might be, he was playing in Cincinnati, in Paul Brown Stadium. Home field advantage may be even bigger in the playoffs than in regular season. From just one week ago, Boardroom.tv reports in an article called, “How Much is Home-field Advantage Worth in the NFL Playoffs?“:
“Since the decline of home-field advantage in 2019 [for Covid reasons], we still observed almost the same home-field advantage in a limited sample size (eight games) in the divisional round: a 75% win rate and a scoring margin of 6.13 points per game.”
Although Steve Spagnuolo has stated his opinion of Joe Burrow as: “I see a young Tom Brady” let’s not forget that it was Spags defense when he was the N.Y. Giants DC that stifled Brady’s team and brought a Super Bowl ring to those Giants. So, Spags knows how to deal with a QB like Brady… and Burrow.
The Chiefs Offense
The Chiefs offense has scored 31 points or more in six (6) out of their last seven (7) games, and have scored a total of 84 points in their last two games. The Buffalo Bills had the best defense out of all the teams the Chiefs have faced this season, and the Bills still couldn’t hold Patrick Mahomes and his offense under 40. The Bills defense was:
- First in the 2021 season in Points Allowed
- 2nd in Rushing Yards Allowed (by 9 yards)
- First in Passing Yards Allowed
In fact, no other NFL team had less than 3,000 Passing Yards Allowed, but the Bills gave up only 2,771 yards. In reality, they allowed 441 fewer passing yards than any other defense.
However, the Bengals ranked 26th in Passing Yards Allowed with 4,222 in 2021.
Let that soak in a moment. According to TeamRankings.com the Chiefs offense ranked second in the league in Passing Yards per Game gained with 291.2 (4,950 total). So, it’s difficult to see Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense not making a killing against this Bengals defense, especially in Arrowhead.
On the flip side, the Bengals are 5th versus the Rush and have allowed 1,742 total yards this year, or 102 YPG. However, K.C. running backs averaged 6.7 yards per carry in the first game between the two teams and I doubt that will change tomorrow. So, I doubt that Andy Reid will do anything different when applying the running game. Also, RB Jerick McKinnon has caught eleven (11) passes for 135 yards in the past two games, when Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore only caught 4 passes for 27 yards the first time these two teams played. McKinnon is a new found weapon and I’m sure Andy Reid will be calling him number tomorrow!
Flawless Operation
Travis Kelce said this week, the offense works together and reads defenses together too, so the approach can be a, “Flawless operation.” Dan Orlovsky does a good job here of pointing out the way the Chiefs have become “flawless,” executing perfectly.
Following last weeks last pass in regulation where Mahomes hit Kelce down the seam, it was revealed that Kelce told Mahomes in the huddle that he could get open inside the corner on his side of the field. Then, Mahomes could be heard yelling to Kelce just prior to the snap, “Kelce, do it, do it!”
The players Andy Reid is putting on the field now are so familiar with his play design and offensive scheme, as well as adept at reading defensive coverages, that Reid allows them to make adjustments on the fly. It’s hard for a defense to beat that kind of offensive savvy and genius. Especially when it’s happening in real time, in the blink of an eye.
Will these Chiefs be feeling the desire to avenge the loss to the Bengals in Cincinnati four weeks ago? Ryan Tracy at RGR Football calls this game a “Grudge Match” and a “Revenge Game” but also thinks there’s no reason to be overly concerned about the Bengals this week. I couldn’t agree more and Cincinnati media has even said, “These Bengals are ahead of schedule.” Interpretation? –> They won’t be surprised if this is not their year. Once again, here’s Dan Orlovsky on the progress of Mahomes this year.
Patrick Mahomes has improved his pocket awareness and movement skills inside the pocket as well, plus his use of the release pass to his RBs in the flat. However, it’s funny — ironic? — that what PMII needed to do this year is become more like Alex Smith, when for years Chiefs fans were complaining about AS11 becoming too much of a game manager. That’s exactly what Mahomes has become this year –> a great game manager. Does he still have the ability to go deep whenever he wants? Absolutely. However, it’s his grasp of taking what any defense will give, and learning to become a terrific Game Manager, that has set him apart from all other QBs in the league right now, and perhaps any other QB in the history of the NFL.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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