The Chiefs Have a Bend-but-don’t-break – BBDB – Defense
The Kansas City Chiefs defense is one of the best in the National Football League. While it certainly has its doubters there are facts which can not be debated. Those facts include:
+Only 5 teams have allowed fewer points than the Chiefs in 2016.
+Since the 7:54 mark of the second quarter of their first game, the Chiefs have allowed 1 TD.
+Since the Chiefs last played the Steelers, including that game (in their past 15 games) they have only allowed an average of 13.6 points per game (which includes their playoff games).
I call it number madness… but the irony that the Chiefs are allowing 16.3 points per game this season is not lost on me.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense can be very good. More importantly, they’re good when they need to be. “When” you query? Since the same aforementioned 7 minute mark of their first game vs. the San Diego Chargers, the defense has overwhelmingly been a “bend-but-don’t-break” defense — BBDB — allowing other teams inside the red zone 7 times which includes a TD to DeAndre Hopkins. However, that touchdown is the only TD they have allowed during their opponent’s last 33 drives (as shown below).
Read this graphic by beginning at 12 o’clock and following each opponent’s drive around the field of play in clockwise fashion. Although this does not reveal the starting point for each of their drives, it does provide an illustrated compendium of just how deep into Chiefs territory their 3 opponents — the Chargers, Texans and Jets — have been able to penetrate. All of this has taken place from the point in time that Danny Woodhead scored to put the Charger up 21-3 and takes us through the rest of that game and includes all of the Texans and Jets game drives.
I recall saying out loud over and over again during last week’s “6-pick game” against the N.Y. Jets, “Now they’ve got them right where they want them.” I was referring to the Chiefs defense and by the way, a 6-pick game is much different than a “pick-6 game” and I much prefer a 6-pick game over a pick-6 any day.
“Now they’ve got them right where they want them.”
I now believe there is some truth to that. I was listening to a Herm Edwards interview this week and he was confirming that sometimes when a team is able to drive down to the red zone, or 30-yard line, they may be met with greater resistance because the defense they’re facing has less aerial ground to defend. That’s exactly what I think happened to the Chiefs and their young secondary last weekend. The Jets appeared bent on getting into the end zone by passing the ball because the Chiefs had previously had done a pretty good job containing their ground game. However, you have to think the Jets were so predisposed to getting their receivers more involved in the game that they became more predictable than normal and any time that happens then a defense can “T” off.
A question many are asking is whether or not the defensive backfield can do the same thing to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger. The Jets game was a bit of a perfect storm. We already knew Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was predisposed to throwing INTs in bunches or at least playing erratically, up one week and down the next. Since Fitz had been good the first two weeks, he seemed due for a doozy and delivered.
That’s not to take anything away from the Kansas City Chiefs defense. To the contrary. It was the defense that got overlooked in game one against the San Diego Chargers because the offense looked so good in the last quarter and a half that you couldn’t see the forest for the trees. Without the Chiefs defense finally “not breaking” and holding the Chargers to one field goal on their last nine drives of the game (as shown above), the offense had the chance to make a comeback. A comeback that most fans I’ve talked to didn’t think the offense had in them.
While the Steelers have one of the best, if not the best, offenses in the NFL, it would be presumptuous to think they’re going to crush the Chiefs defense. You can be sure that Andy Reid and the Eagles new head coach, Doug Pederson, have had a conversation this week in the wake of Philly’s beatdown of the Steelers last weekend. On the other hand, Pittsburgh will be returning to play at Home and seeking redemption for the 34-3 whooping that Pederson’s Eagles laid on them.
While the Steelers OC Todd Haley has had resentment over the way he was dealt with when he was fired from the Chiefs, people may be making too much out of that when weighing all the important and tangible influences on this game’s final result. The fact that TE Heath Miller is no longer that dependable receiving outlet for Big Ben and that the Steelers have acquired no one to take Miller’s place, is going to have much more of an effect on this game than Haley’s petty pouty feelings. Here, this is for you Todd –> Wannabe by Spice Girls.
Note: This week Todd Haley had high praise for Chiefs CB Marcus Peters saying that he has excellent ball skills. He spoke of Tamba Hali being one of the Chiefs “big-time outside rushers.” While he also mentioned Dee Ford too he stated, “Derrick Johnson, in my opinion, is the best inside backer in the game. He’s just a play-making machine.” High praise from the man who once benched DJ.
While the Chiefs offense matches up well against the Steelers defense it will likely come down to how well the defense plays against the Pittsburgh offense that determines the final outcome. Steelers DC Keith Butler said this week that he expects the defense to be better than they were last week. He also believes the Chiefs QB and offense is essentially the same so his defense will essentially have two weeks to prepare for this game. Those comments sound misinformed to me so the Chiefs could have a huge week offensively. Still, the game will likely come down to the defensive effort they put forth.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has kept the team in every game since back-to-back away games on September 28th and October 4th in 2015 when they faced the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals. Those teams scored 38 and 36 points respectively.
The Steelers have said they will come out running the ball and try to establish a running attack and with Le’Veon Bell returning the Chiefs D will have to keep more men in the box to keep that from happening. Last week, there were times the D dropped 8 men in coverage and only rushed three linemen. That will probably not work with Bell back in their lineup so it’s going to be more of a challenge to keep the Steelers WRs covered. Although Antonio Brown is an exceptional WR, I would not rate their whole WR corp ahead of the NY Jets corp. So, we’ll see who wins that battle but I would not automatically count the Chiefs defense as coming in with a disadvantage. Not nearly.
Could the Pittsburgh Steelers offense put up 28 to 35 points on the Chiefs defense? Yes, but I wouldn’t bet on it. What I would bet on is the Kansas City defense playing good enough to give their offense a chance to win it. Bending… but not breaking. That seems much more likely to me.