Chiefs: Bewitched, Voodoo’d, High Jingo’d, Capturing Lightning in a Bottle – The Chiefs are set up to repeat as winners of the the Lombardi Trophy version LV to be won at Tampa on 7 February 2021. I believe in #Runitback!
In 2019 the Chiefs had to re-invent themselves for many reasons as the season progressed. Patrick Mahomes suffered two injuries which thwarted his mobility and caused him to miss two complete games. The defense was in a makeover phase transitioning from a 34 to a 43 defense with new coaches and players being brought on board. The team suffered significantly for the first half of the season but in the second half they began to get it fleshed out as the players got on board with Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive schemes and the coaches learned how each player fit and what roles they played in which they could excel. After the week 10 the New and Improved Defense finally gained traction and played lights-out football all the way to Miami, save for the first Quarter glitch in the Chiefs-Texans game of the Divisional round.
Two of the authors at ArrowheadOne made a prediction that this defense would end up in the top 10 and that is exactly what happened. I will now add that the Chiefs defense of 2020 will be a couple of 4 notches above what they achieved in 2019 with a good shot at being a top 5 Defensive Unit.
Key Offensive Move
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, CEH, or Air “Eelaire.” I am not puzzled about Clyde at all, but I was on draft night. He’s what I define as a missing link for the Chiefs offense. I think back to the import of Kareem Hunt to the Chiefs offense and how his necessary departure left a dark hole that was only partially filled by Damien Williams. To add emphasis, this “dark hole” was the reason that the Chiefs signed RB LeSean McCoy, hoping to recapture lightning in the proverbial bottle. That signing didn’t work out, but the Chiefs 1st round pick of 2020 will have a different result.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be a Crucial Feature of the Chiefs 2020 Offense. Some things that have been missing:
- His prowess as a RB/WR will prevent opposing teams from cheating pass coverages
- CEH will provide a key to holding linebackers to the LoS longer. They cannot presume he is going to run the ball or if he’ll run a route
- CEH will provide an potent component of the RPO for Patrick Mahomes
- His skill set is a sculpted piece of the Team Persona. Simply said, he fits.
OC Eric Bieniemy said a lot about Clyde Air Helaire,
“One thing is, Veach and his entire staff did a great job of evaluating the kid… Collectively as a coaching staff, we felt we did a great job of evaluating the talent. But on top of that — and I think this is more important than anything — we know the person… He’s just going to be a piece of the puzzle.”
Edwards-Helaire will be the future at the Running Back position and should immediately ascend to the role of the Chief’s Featured Running Back. Put it in the book.
Bolstering the Defensive Unit’s Bona Fides
I predicted before last season began that the Chiefs defense would end up being a top 10 defense in the NFL. It took them 6 or 8 games to get their footing and the team had a hiccup in week ten but from that point on, it is safe to say that the Defense played their way to the Super Bowl win.
Recently, Steve Spagnuolo observed that the D needs to get out of the gate better in 2020. He went on to say a couple of things that bolster my view of what happened in 2019 and what I forecast for the 2020 future:
“… we knew there were going to be bumps in the road early with regards to feeling out coaches, players and what we had, what they could do, the new system and the whole thing. My hope is that we’re past that and it would be really nice if we could come out of the blocks and play good defense at the beginning of the season and not wait. I think we maybe felt like it was seven or eight games before we really got in the groove.”
Spags provides clarity to the struggles and emergence of the D in 2019 plus he provides us with clarity in his view for 2020.
I have written before about the magic number 17, for a defense to hold another team at or under. In today’s world, that number should maybe be adjusted upwards to 19 or 20. The Chiefs first 6 weeks of the 2019 season saw exposures as they yielded an average of about 24 points per game. After that? The team gave up an average of less than 17 points per game. During the closing stretch of the season, the Chiefs held opponents to 10 points or less four times!
Willie Gay, Jr. was draft at pick #63 this year. If I were tossing bones on a blanket to work voodoo magic for the Chiefs Defense, the sign to be picked up each time would point at Gay. Observers, pundits and analysts did not see Gay coming but the Chiefs scouts did.
Gay was a player that I overlooked purposely. Why? Because Reid, Veach, the Chiefs scouting staff and defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo gave no clue at all that they were even secretly looking at Gay. What we found out after the selection was that all the components of evaluation had been done, including vetting the player. So, their secrecy paid off.
Thats night, in my late night scramble to assemble a view of what made Gay tick, about 4 O’clock in the morning, I posted my discoveries at that early moment of the morning because by then, I understood why he also was a total fit: another integrated piece of the puzzle. I turned to what I could find about Gay’s persona and background as well. It turns out, the red flags were lowered and Gay was exactly what the Chiefs needed for an outside LB in their 43 Defense. So, the Chiefs played it close to the cuff and didn’t shine a light of interest in Gay.
In 2020, Willie Gay, Jr. will ascend the ranks of the “unwashed” and become an immediate starter at Linebacker for the Chiefs. It will take time to fold him in as the Chiefs defensive signal caller for the front seven, but he will become just that. Put that in the book you are keeping about my predictions if you indeed keep track.
Free Agent Taco Charlton was added recently to the Chiefs defense. A former 1st round pick who has not lived up to expectations. The signing was a high round draft pick… at a low cost… to add to the talent pool. Charlton fit’s the Veach picture perfectly. Charlton was also a team-mate of Frank Clark’s at Michigan.
Clark apparently worked in the background to get Charlton an offer from the Chiefs. He said that the Chiefs would get a player on board who would give extreme unction to his previous seasons and even Clark anticipated that Charlton could become a legend in Kansas City. I can’t say that will happen but what I do see is that the Chiefs can offer up 4 defensive ends who can play a tactical role for Spagnuolo’s front four. This is where things should get exciting. Not only should Charlton fit well what the Chiefs do, but he would add a third major player to the front four and that should give the Chiefs even greater power at the Defense End position. Last season, the team finally saw Tanoh Kpassagnon emerging and making plays. So, Alex Okafor and Frank Clark can stay fresh. An added value is that all four men can be used in versatile play sets, become indispensable as a rotation with versatility at the same time, sometimes inside, sometimes with different than expected jobs on any given snap.
For me, this added value is worthy of note with a very high ceiling in terms of utility. I personally expect Charlton to finally emerge from dredges of players who have not fit elsewhere, finding a home in Kansas City and making the most of it, legend or not. He fits K.C. and… K.C. is a fit for him.
The L’Jarius Sneed: Sneed Creed
The Sneed Creed is a further value for the Chiefs. The two Corners added in the draft in L’Jarius Sneed, and Bopete Keyes, are of course, unproven, and as later picks, they come with lesser expectations than most.
In evaluating L’Jarius Sneed’s fit is, he gives the secondary size and value at 6-foot-1 and 198 lbs.. However, he may be tossed to the lion’s den due to the likely game suspensions for Bashaud Breeland. This very fact could be the way the Sneed gets his early rep and continued use during the season.
Sneed moved to safety his Senior year, led the team in tackles 72, 42 solo and 3.5 TFL. He had 3 interceptions and among those was a pick-six for 68 yards.
Here is the Sneed for Speed
Sneed posted a 4.37 – 40 yard dash at the combine. His other metrics were good but speed will help him get accustomed to the NFL game speed quickly. The fact that he has position versatility is a plus but he appears on film to be more comfortable playing at CB.
I get the sense that some of the knocks and criticism comes from the fact that he played for a “lesser” school and did not effectively account for changing position to safety. I see “real baloney” in the some of the analysis, even from those I generally trust. It is my view that most of the knocks relate to technique and can be coached out. Take for example tackling — it’s a bad technique critique. Why? His numbers show a very willing tackler. The “closing speed” critique? How can that be a “truth” with his overall speed? My judgement is that he had some slow-decision making at a new position for him… at safety. Again, if playing safety, coaching will handle any deficiency.
He is by no means a Marcus Peters when it comes to tackling. Sneed uses his hands extremely well when up close and personal at the LoS. He jams and fights to get the opponent off his route at the snap. His versatility gives me a good view of being able to swap back to safety and vice-versa dynamically and seamlessly. The lack of twitchiness is a concern but it is not an outright defect. I certainly cannot see him as being restricted from the outside nor, restricted to zone coverage.
The film for Sneed provides me a good view of what he is capable of doing. He played for Louisiana Tech all 4 seasons of collegiate football there. He had a pick-6 at corner his freshman year and was a starter in 26 games. He has the length that the Chiefs are want to see in their secondary. He is very good at defending at the point of catch. He can play both zone and man coverage. Put him at the LoS and with a press-man duty and he’ll excel.
What I see as an advantage is that Sneed is aggressive. A good man up defender who slams and jams and uses his hands to great benefit. At the LoS, if the play goes to the ground outside, he can close up his part of the edge duty with strength and utility. I see him being coached up easily, given an open throttle and succeeding quickly at the NFL level. His speed gets him early marks and after he gets thrown to the lions, emerge as a Daniel, from the den.
An Earmark Season
The 2020 Season will prove to be an earmark season for the Chiefs which is tough to do following a championship year. I am excited about what is to come and see the Chiefs with the talent, mix of players and coaches that give the appearance of being set to #Runitback!
Sure, nothing has been recorded in the book for the 2020 season. Everything is delayed, and the NFL lock-down is still mostly in play. Hopefully, Training Camp will kick off and make the lock-down a thing of the past.
The Chiefs appears to be a leader in the field of Virtual Reality for the NFL and this bodes well for them to avail themselves of the opportunity to repeat. Certainly, the success of retaining most of the key players from 2019 will give added value that other teams cannot match. Player additions appear to be fortuitous. So much so that I dont need to cast a spell from where I sit in Texas, for the Chiefs as an improved team bewitching the rest of the NFL. Just maybe, Voodoo and High Jingo will soon show that the Chiefs can capture lightning in a bottle!
David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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