Chiefs: Breaking Good

Laddie Morse

“Breaking Good” is all about those Kansas City Chiefs who can have a breakout year in the 2023 NFL season. When QB Patrick Mahomes was drafted in 2017, he sat out a year while studying under Alex Smith, but when he did start the next season, it was a breakout season like no one had ever seen before: 50 TDs and over 5,000 passing yards (5,097). In 2019 Tyreek Hill had 860 receiving yards, but the very next year — in 2020 — he had 1,276 receiving yards and you could say he had a breakout year… in a good way. That’s what I’m hoping to see from many of the Chiefs who were on the team last year… as well as some rookies.

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RB Jerick McKinnon – in 2021, McKinnon had 169 yards from scrimmage — 62 yards rushing and 107 receiving in the regular season. Then, last year, in 2022, he had 803 total yards from scrimmage — 291 yards rushing and 512 receiving yards. You could say that 2022 was a breakout year for Jerick McKinnon so I doubt he’ll be on this list by year’s end. What I’m hoping from him is a year similar to the one he had last year while helping to train up the Chiefs young guns in the background. Jerick McKinnon’s slide (see below) near the end of Super Bowl LVII is as much a reason for that win as any other play:

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LB Nick Bolton – went from 112 Total Tackles in 2021 to 180 Total Tackles in 2022. While he also had a breakout year last season, I’m hoping he can continue to grow and then lead the league in Tackles (he was second in 2022). When Nick Bolton forced the Eagles QB, Jalen Hurts, to fumble, and he picked it up for a scoop-n-score, that play turned the tides.

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LB Leo Chenal – had 35 Total Tackles in 2022, his rookie year, and he accomplished that in 261 snaps (on defense). That works out to 1 Tackle in every 7.4 snaps. Chenal may not get as many snaps this year with he addition of Drue Tranquill, but his ability to help stop the run is important to the defense.

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WR Rashee Rice – this rookie out of SMU should have a very good year in his very first season in the NFL. Am I saying he could breakout? Yes, absolutely. Rice had four very good seasons for SMU going from 403 Receiving Yards in his freshman year to 683 his Sophomore season then he had 670 yards his Junior year and finished with 1,355 receiving yards his Senior season. He’s already established a connection with Patrick Mahomes and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t match JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 933 yards last year (assuming he doesn’t get hurt). Here’s Rice catching a TD at a Senior Bowl Practice (he’s line up on the right side):

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RB Isiah Pacheco – this rookie running back played in all 17 games in 2022, but when starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire went down, Pacheco started 11 games. Pacheco led the team with 830 rushing yards so it’s not out of order to think that he’ll break the 1,000 barrier and have a breakout season. Pacheco also had 130 receiving yards in 2022 to give him 960 total yards. Here’s Pacheco vs the Raiders:

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DE George Karlaftis – GK has 5.5 sacks in the last seven games of he 2022 season. He had 6.0 sacks in all so the question is… can Karlaftis keep up his late season pace and carry that through to the 2023 season? I’m a believer and think he could easily reach to 10 sack level this year. If he does that, he’ll be one of the Chiefs Breakout players this year. Here, Karlaftis gets his second sack of the preseason, even though he was held:

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DE Charles Omenihu – CO is a 6-foot-5, 280 lbs. defensive lineman who is just one inch shorter than Chris Jones but the point is, he’s one of the prototypical sized players that Steve Spagnuolo and Joe Cullen like to have on their defensive line. Omenihu only played on 54% of the 49ers snaps last year but had 4.0 sacks to show for it. He may not have a breakout year but even if he plays a few more snaps and ups his total sacks to 6 or 7, he’ll be helping the Chiefs DL immeasurably. In 2021, he split time between Houston and the 49ers and came away playing less than 50% of the snaps for those two teams. With Spags liking to rotate his defensive linemen in, it’s reasonable to expect CO to play more downs in K.C.. Here Charles Omenihu getting a sack on Tommy boy:

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WR Kadarius Toney – if there was one wide receiver who was going to breakout this year, I’d say it will be Kadarius Toney. Toney was drafted in the first round, 20th overall in the 2021 NFL draft by the NY Giants and he just turned 24 years old in January. Toney played in 7 games for the Chiefs and started 3 of those games. He had 14 receptions for 171 yards with a catch rate of 82.4%… which is exceptional. (Tyreek Hill’s best catch rate was 73.3% in his rookie year). Even if KT lands on a 75% catch rate, he should come away with more than 1,000 yards… if he can stay healthy. Here’s Kadarius Toney hopping into the end zone:

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Chiefs OL; Donovan Smith, Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor – should collectively have a breakout season. If… D. Smith can return to his 2021 LT form (he should be able to since he played most of 2022 with injuries), and… Jawaan Taylor can play up to his billing at RT, and… assuming the IOL plays as well as they have for the past two years… they should come away with a Juggernaut of an OL and end up giving up zero sacks in half of their games.

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If they do that, they could end up as one of the best Offensive Lines to ever be assembled. Here’s Donovan Smith serving a pancake with syrup:

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Wide Receivers; Skyy Moore, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or Richie James – one of these wideouts could end up breaking out this year. When you think abut who is throwing them the ball, they should be able to reach new levels of excellence. Is another 5,000+ yards passing season a possibility for Patrick Mahomes? Yes, for sure. For that to happen, the Chiefs will need one of these WRs to breakout this year. Is that even possible? Oh yes it is! Here’s Richie James extending a play for his QB (Daniel Jones) and this tells us he’ll be able to do the same for PMII, who we know, LOVES to extend plays:

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OC Matt Nagy – we don’t often think of coaches breaking out but in the case of re-newed OC, Matt Nagy, he can, and should, have a breakout season. Many may have forgotten that Nagy served as the Offensive Coordinator under Andy Reid in 2016 and 2017 before he ever was hired to be the Head Coach for the Chicago Bears. I thought the Chiefs may be inviting problems a year ago when they re-hired Nagy since Eric Bieniemy was still here. However, Nagy served as Senior assistant & quarterbacks coach in 2022 and that season turned out just fine (if you know what I mean?). Now that Eric Bieniemy has moved on to the Commanders and Nagy has been re-inserted into the OC role, the Chiefs offense should roll like they are the newest version of the Rolling Stones. Nagy has a sense of humor that I’m sure Patrick Mahomes will enjoy:

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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