David Bell
By the time the Kansas City Chiefs reached the Bye week, Laddie Morse and I had conversations that had a variety of predictions. We tossed around the potential of finishing the first seven games, 4-3 or 3-4. I don’t recall either of us predicting 7-0 or 6-1, but 5-2 was something that was within reach of the Kansas City Chiefs. After the game in San Francisco, I felt a sense of relief, knowing that 5-2 at the Bye, with the next two games at Arrowhead Stadium, facing the Titans and then the Panthers, would likely both end up in the win column. After the team gets to week ten — with a record of 7-2 — they face another tough stretch of games that is again a scheduling nightmare.
The Water Under the Bridge View
The two missed opportunities were close games in which the Chiefs lost by 3 points to the Colts and 4 points to the Bills. Both games should have been, or could have been, outcomes in the win column.
Stats That Matter v 49ers
- third-down conversions – 6 of 9
- Yards of offense – 530
- two WRs with 100+ yards – JuJu Smith-Schuster & Marques Valdes-Scantling
- Aerial Yards – 429
- Record Set by Hardman: 2 Rushing TDs, one pass reception TD (first such player to record this in the modern era)
- QB Wins in the first 70 games – Mahomes tied with Ken Stabler (56)
- Mahomes 25-34 429 Yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
- Kelce – 6 catches, 8 targets, 98 yards (barely missing another 100-yard day, Kelce had 1 called back, including a TD)
- Most Important Stat? Another game notched in the win column
- Andy Reid – Reid has an outstanding record in the game after a Bye Week –> 18-3
Two Stats I dislike:
- Falling behind by double digits in games.
- Time of Possession (to be fair, the 49ers used a lot of time on the clock to move the chains, but the defense stops — bend but don’t break defense — held them at bay)
Advantage Chiefs at the Bye
Injury Recovery & Return of Players to the Roster
As they pass the Bye Week, the Chiefs should see the return of CBs, Trent McDuffie and Rashad Fenton, which is good news. McDuffie starting on the outside makes the Chiefs rotation stronger, with L’Jarius Sneed playing the opposite. When in the Nickel, Sneed slides inside. This is where Rashad Fenton comes into play, or Jaylen Watson… and now? –> Joshua Williams. That’s a pretty good list of CBs to mix and match. I greatly appreciate the young guys stepping up and in and playing well.
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Joshua Williams Shines
Williams was tested heavily against both the Bills and the 49ers. I think he acquitted himself well. Williams was challenged to step in as a starter because both McDuffie and Fenton experienced injuries. Williams indeed gave up two TDs against the Bills, but it’s also true that he was covering targets of one of the top QBs in the NFL and two different top ranked WRs. In the game against the 49ers, Williams picked off a pass from Jimmy Garoppolo in the end-zone, ending a 49ers drive. It was the first NFL INT for Joshua Williams! Go Josh!
With Trent McDuffie coming back, the CB group gets more robust. With the gained experience of a 4th (Williams) and 7th (Watson) round draft picks, the secondary steps up another notch just due to their gain in NFL game time. Bryan Cook went into Concussion Protocol after the Bills game. He was back this past week and had 25 defensive snaps. The group gains experience game by game. McDuffie has another two weeks of healing time, at least a week if needed.
DE Mike Danna hopefully will be back as well. In 2022, the Chiefs are fortunate to get to Week 9 with everyone healed up and ready to rock! The only downside is that Tershawn Wharton suffered a torn ACL versus the Buffalo Bills and is lost for the rest of the season. All other bumps, bruises, and contusions will have time to heal for all the players during the Bye Week.
Andy Reid’s Take
Andy Reid reported after the game that no new player injuries were noteworthy. However, at his presser after the game, Andy Reid observed the timing of the Bye:
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“Yeah, I think so…I think it’s a good time. 5-2 looks a lot better than 4-3. I think it comes where we could afford to get a little bit healthier in some particularly the corner spot, as long as the guys are out the being safe. And that’s my primary concern right now, and to get back on time. That’s always important. This leads them into a nice positive week where they can have some recovery time.”
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We all know how Reid’s teams also come out to play after a “Bye.” When asked about his success, he gave credit to his coaching staff. When he was asked about it last season he said:
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“I would say that I have good coaches and good players, and I think that is probably it…I don’t know why that has happened. It’s just one of those things, I think.” -Source: Charles Goldman at Chiefswire
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Back-Shoulder Pass
In recent history, the Chiefs have not used the back-shoulder pass play. So it was noteworthy to see Mahomes complete a back-shoulder pass to a WR–JuJu Smith-Schuster. JSS had a nice catch and run for a TD as well.
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The only other player I can recall receiving a back-shoulder pass wasn’t a WR–It was Travis Kelce–remember the playoff Win and the TD caught by Travis? It’s an added dimension to the Repertory.
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Running Game Notes
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I don’t want to downplay Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He played hard football and played well against the 49ers. However, the run-game play-calling was not up to snuff as I view things, making it challenging for the RBs to get traction. In this past game, Isiah got the nod as the starter. I like that. The problem establishing the ground game was evident against the Bills. Not so this past weekend. Isiah Pacheco, CEH, and Jerick McKinnon each had meaningful touches. I like what I saw from Isiah.
I must add the Isiah Pacheco Kick-off return, which was outstanding (about 48 yards). He almost broke it all the way.
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All three RBs contributed to the ground-and-pound effort. After the game, Pacheco remarked: “I am not satisfied.” He also broke one run play for 17-yards. It was explosive:
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At this time, you must give credit in the run game to the OL blocking for the Jet Sweep. Mecole Hardman was deployed twice in that manner and scored a TD both times. The second case was a lesson about using the blockers for Mecole Hardman. The OL was out in front for both, but the play down the right sideline was a fun play to watch, both for Hardman, using his blockers and scoring and, the players making plays with good blocks simultaneously.
Then there is #87! He had 98 yards receiving and fell short of the 100-yard game. However, as noted, he had enough yards on his TD catch that was negated by a penalty.
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The Offensive Line
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Credos to the OL for a job well done!
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Adam Teicher wrote a piece called: “Jet sweeps play to Mecole Hardman’s strengths,” and he shows all three of Mecole Hardman’s TDs: two Jet Sweeps and a pass catch TD from Patrick Mahomes.
In week 6, I noted that Orlando Brown Jr. played considerably better than games preceding that. I must add that: In Week 7, Brown played far more effectively by a rating factor of 2 or more. I note considerable criticism from fans due to the first five weeks. I don’t think that was a whole-cloth view of things. Brown has been dealing with a knee strain, but the Sunday game he significantly improved. Thus far during the schedule, the Chiefs have faced the top-ranked defense in the NFL, as ranked at game-time. At the same time, our OTs were facing top-rated Edge Rushers in the process… on both ends of the DL.
I know I have been critical of Andrew Wylie, but the same notation applies to him. The two games that I would have downgraded the OTs were the games against the Colts and the Bills. I know there was one play in which Wylie lost his man in this past game, and he deserves the ding on that one. Still, the OL played with improved vigor and success against a top-drawer defense. The Offensive Line moved people throughout the game and simultaneously turned in a solid pass-protection performance. Credos to our Front Five in the 49ers game. You wouldn’t score 44 points if the OL were a problem. You don’t convert 6 of 9 third downs and move the chains either, if the big guys up front play poorly.
Offensive Note
Pundits across the country touted what the other teams had accomplished in their offseason. They were confident that Mahomes & Co. had been overtaken. Sure, the Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill. Yes, it’s true, his specialness is missed, but did the Chiefs stand still? Nope, they adjusted by making acquisitions of their own. Brett Veach made decisions, inquired about players, and signed them, most notably JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdez-Scantling. These two accounted for more than 230 yards receiving vs. the 49ers. Plus, a novel TD by JSS, and MVS deflected the last possible defender as JuJu scored on a 45-yard catch and run TD. You can see the video here of JuJu performing his Premiere League style celebration:
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Standing on its own, the departure of Tyreek Hill seemed to be a menace to any success that the Chiefs might achieve in 2022. Far from it: at the Bye, the Chiefs are 5-2 with a likely 7-2 record going into week 10. On Sunday, the Chiefs generated 530 yards of offense with 9.1 yards per offensive snap. It doesn’t get much better than that!
Something that the culture of anti-chiefdom exists in the NFL east of the Hudson and around the country. What they fail to take into account is one player who is the hub around which all the talent revolves:
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To understand the above picture correctly, consider the following:
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Turn the Page: Defense
If the defense deserves criticism, it must be intermixed with credit simultaneously. Despite missing key personnel, the defense held the 49ers to 23 points. That is 3 over my “magic” number of 20. During the game, the 49ers made their moves. Out of the gate, they scored 10 points before the Chiefs got on the board. Then KC rallied back and took the lead 14-13 and didn’t look back, winning 44-to-23. So again, the defense was a big part of that success.
The Joshua Williams Interception was my reward tonight. Pressure from the DL forced 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo to make an ill-advised pass. It was what I wrote about in the game day thread. Pressure Jimmy, and he will make a mistake. Joshua Williams got his redemption on that pass.
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If I had to Choose: Williams or Watson?
That’s a tough question. Williams has an upside that he hasn’t achieved. Length and the over-the-top passes, he isn’t there yet. I think he will be. In the Bills game, he was beaten once, and on that play, the receiver fended him off with his right hand. On the other, it was a perfect pass, and it had to be for completion. Watson can play zone and has a good upside for that reason. It does not need a decision except on play-by-play insertion because the Chiefs have Rashad Fenton, who has been a solid performer. Both corners can exceed Fenton’s ability. We’ll see how it plays out.
Getting Willie Gay Back
Willie Gay figured in many plays. The 49ers gamed the Chiefs LBs, and that hurt at times. Having Gay back was a boon to the defense, though. I have already talked up Darius Harris enough. We have a top-tier LB group. Bolton, Gay, Harris, and Chenal are tough to beat. Go Chiefs!
Ranking the Defense Compared to All Teams?
The defense has a middle-of-the-road type ranking as an overall outfit right now, maybe about 18 or 20. I would judge them to be at the bottom of the middle rank. I still think the defense will get a top-15 rating by the end of the season. Getting Gay back, as well as Fenton, Cook, and McDuffie, improves the outlook. DC Steve Spagnuolo has been effective, mixing in blitzes despite leaving young corners on an island. First round pick, Trent McDuffie’s return aids the ability to defend the aerial game.
The Second Half
Combined with good coverage by the secondary, the Front Four came into the picture. CJ got a sack from the edge. Karlaftis exerted pressure inside the tackles. The DTs came through, and Frank Clark had one of his best games as a Chief. Too bad he’ll be gone for the next two games.
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The Front Four stopped the 49ers cold in the second half, ceding them only 13 points. Although I am not a betting man, if I were, I would wager on the game after the Bye vs. the Titans, followed by another wager on the Chiefs game against the Panthers. At that point, I predict the Chiefs will be 7-2.
If Wishes Were Horses
If wishes were Horses, Peasants would ride…
I expressed a couple of times this past week that an edge player would be the best acquisition the Chiefs could make before the trade deadline. The Panthers Brian Burns is my choice, but that probably cannot happen. That view is due to Frank Clark’s mostly off-performances since we won the Super Bowl. I doubt Clark will return in 2023. He appears to be affected by a chronic gastrointestinal ailment of some sort. I think his return in 2023 is highly questionable — that’s my bet right now. The 24 year old Burns would be a long-term investment worthy of spending the money on regarding ability, youth, and availability.
Alas, I don’t think acquiring Burns is possible. The Panthers have apparently turned down an offer of two 1st round picks for DE Brian Burns. I doubted they would do that, and let’s wait for it all to play out up to November 1st, next Tuesday. We’ll see what is what at that time.
OBJ is another name bandied about. It appears that bringing OBJ aboard would add the threat that Tyreek Hill presented to other teams. I can see that advantage, but he likely won’t be available until December because of his rehab. Also, that type of move might upset the WR Group apple cart.
Meanwhile, the rumor mill holds attention.
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David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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