Chiefs: By the Bye, Focus on Defense – Part II

Chiefs: By the Bye, Focus on Defense – Part II – The Chiefs Linebackers in 2020 have been my “Great Disappointment.” It is my view that integral to the defensive front is the second level of support: The Linebackers. The team has been holding newcomer Willie Gay, Jr. back, to break him in slowly. Meanwhile, Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson and Ben Niemann have been providing the basic threesome with Gay mixed in periodically. My point about this group remains the fact, that as starters, Hitchens and Wilson mostly fail to reach the basic level of an average NFL Linebacker. Wilson is not a starting quality player, but solid enough to substitute, and Ben Niemann provides some very intelligent play in the role, but he isn’t a starter either.

The only player that the Chiefs field for linebacker, who has the speed to pursue sideline-to-sideline, and defend against the pass as well… is Willie Gay. Sure, Hitchens commands a big salary. He also provides plays where he misreads the action, he consistently does not avoid getting caught up in the play of the opposing linemen who are trying to get to the second level to make their blocks. Niemann and Wilson have been no answer, and none of those three are good defenders against the aerial game.

I am disappointed that Gay has not been used more. I know in one game he had a TFL and 2 PBUs. In the game against the Chargers, Gay had a blocked punt.

While I agree that breaking players in gradually is the best policy, Gay has earned the construct of being a starter and a 3-down player for Matt House. With the play of the LB’s, we have seen thus far, they might as well bite the bullet and put him in the game as a true starter. He has two starts to date in 2020.

It is time to jump in with both feet and start Willie Gay. Use him on all three downs. This is not just my view. Listening to Locked on Chiefs with Ryan Tracy and Daniel Harms provides the same view. At one point, Seth Keysor covered the concern about the LB group as well. I am waiting to see what his judgements are based on his view of the play now that we are at the bye.

At PFF, Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson rank 48th and 49th among all linebackers — with starter snaps — and Ben Niemann ranks 77th. This is a horrid overall performance from the first 3 linebackers in the Chiefs group. I am inclined to trust my own eyes when watching these guys play. I remain steadfastly optimistic about Gay, and what he can do on all three downs, and is better than what we are witnessing. Unfortunately, Anthony Hitchens is under contract through next season. This should tell us what must happen in the coming offseason, as well as the draft next year.

Take the last TD by the Panthers seen below. A hole was created on the Panthers offensive left. McCaffrey is headed into the hole. Not attacking the hole to prevent the score were both Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson. Each took on a blocker allowing themselves to be blocked. A sharp glancing blow and the TD was scored. Result: Hitchens and Wilson didn’t close into the gap to make that stop.

There are so many ways Hitchens and Wilson “don’t” get the job done:

• Always late.
• Slow to react.
• Making tackles 7+ yards down field.
• Slow reads.
• Getting rubbed from pursuit, and
• Easily being blocked.

Damien Wilson, oddly enough, has ranked about the same as Anthony Hitchens. Ben Niemann, a player who I thought would contribute at a higher level of performance in 2020, has also been disappointing. Once again, Dorian O’Daniel hasn’t fit into the picture much at all and has received only 9 (nine) defensive snaps this season. There is a ton of work to be done to tighten up the LB play… and during the next offseason too!

Chiefs Defensive – DVOA

Perhaps a better view of the Chiefs defense is provided via Football Outsiders, a view of the Chiefs defensive efficiency. Here, they are not in the top ten this year, ranking 13th.

You can take a look at Rankings by team at Football Outsiders: Here.

Even this doesn’t really tell the whole story, which I highlighted in my opening remarks. However, injury losses skew the statistics and the two games where the opponent scored 31 and 40 points didn’t help. In static measurements, they rank 30th as well in Rush defense. This has got to be something that Matt House, Brendan Daly and Steve Spagnuolo put their heads together and make sure to turn it around.

2020’s off season – looking far ahead, I will put a face with the need!

We could start with signing a top LB. The position is in what I regard as: “Dire Straits.” A draft pick is again called for as well. I have done a few mocks to this point and want to note that Nick Bolton’s stock is rising. The Mizzou LB has the credentials that fit the bill. He has the ability and strength to fend off blockers and make stops at the LoS and the speed to play the game sideline-to-sideline. He also is a good pass defender with 2 INTs his Junior year. I could run down several other choices, but at this point, Bolton may just fall into the Chiefs hands. I won’t know who the free agents are that will be available. Brett Veach has a decision to make because Anthony Hitchens is under contract through 2021 and his Dea Cap cost is $8.4M in 2021 and $4.2M in 2022.

I don’t follow the Tigers nearly as close as I once did, but I have watched Bolton play and he is good. A very positive article is available about him here:

Due to Alex Okafor ending up on the Injury List again and missing multiple games, and due to the fact that Tanoh Kpassagnon has not shown great success, I can see the Chiefs adding a Defensive End in the draft.

Defense: Overall View

Some evaluators are giving the Chiefs defense very high marks. That is not me. I have read that the Chiefs are better than the 2019 version. Have we really seen that to be the case? I think not. If those evaluators gave the Chiefs defense an “A” grade it’s surprising to me. They are ranked 17th by PFF and I think that grade is too low as FootballOutsiders is probably closer to the mark at 13th.

PFF gave huge nods to both Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu, as they should. Otherwise, but you can check out PFF’s rankings here if oyu want. Got to thinking about the overall appraisal. Went to PFF and don’t agree with the rating of the Chiefs at 17th, but they do
make valid high note observations.

I am rating the defense with a “B-“ type rating (grade). I feel this is about right due to the two games where they gave up 30+ points, and the fact that the Run Defense is at times, abysmal. On the positive side, the Chiefs defense has performed the basic task at hand: Hold the opponents to 20 points or less with 2 exceptions. This despite injuries at DE and missing players in the secondary. The biggest shortcoming remains the linebackers and the PFF rankings demonstrate the inability of the three primary LB’s to get the job done.

The run defense would have been stronger if the linebackers had performed at an NFL Average level, and that would have resulted in a higher appraisal from me. The LB group is the weakest player grouping on the defensive side of the ball… and the team overall. In the game against the Panthers, Spagnuolo, for the first time in my recollection, used the blitz heavily. It did not work. Getting Sneed back, Hamilton healed up and having Thornhill backing up everything should allow Spagnuolo to worry about the run game since the secondary is healthy. Let’s hope that he and his staff come up with solutions that work. Even in games where they held the opponent to 20 and under, the running game defense has been problematic for the team to defend.

Ratings and Rankings are not as important by individual groups so long as the overall job is done. Spagnuolo made a comment on this a bit more than a week ago. 8 wins against a single loss speaks for itself. Not losing a game since last year speaks for itself. It sure would help if the front seven controlled the line of scrimmage. It doesn’t to my satisfaction. I place the responsibility for that squarely on the shoulders of Hitchens and Wilson as well as the coaching staff. Surely, Steve Spagnuolo knows what the weaknesses are. Surely Matt House is working with the Linebackers. Surely Brendan Daly has input to what should change. Something has got to improve in this regard. Now Coaches? What in the world are you going to do to make that it happen this year?

David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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