Chiefs: Bye Week Deliberations – leading to my thoughts in this time of “rest” was Ladner’s article this week and his pronounced “Bump Down” appraisal of the 2020 draft as well as the ideas brought forward by Paul Pulley. We won’t arrive at any solution any time soon: to get there the road hopefully travels to the Super Bowl and then we will have time to see what Brett Veach and Company have in mind. Assuredly, the fans, observers, pundits and analysts will flood us with a lot of proposed solutions and “What Ifs.” Right now, the Chiefs are taking advantage of the “Bye Week,” resting up, recovering from the grind and prepping for their game on January 12th in the NFL’s second season.
What I view about the “Bump Down” is that it could lead to trading out of round one as the most effective way of obtaining another top 100 pick. For me, that will mean our target draft picks have gone to other teams and the most advantageous move might then be to trade out to a high round two selection. By now, you have come to the realization that I am setting aside deliberation about the first postseason opponent that the Chief’s will face in favor of speculation. It seems that Laddie, Paul and myself have all tended towards take a break from the regular grind with an eye forward to 2020’s possibilities.
The viability of considering the “Bump Down” was verbalized by Ladner Morse in his article about it which you can refer back, here: “A First Look at the Chiefs 2020 Draft: The Bump Method.“
The very next day, Paul wrote about looking ahead to the off-season and that outlook(Plus many viable comments, please review them), can be found here: “Chiefs: A Look Ahead to the Offseason.”
It turns out that I had spent time for today’s article deliberating the future as well.
What Would Be Great?
What would be great? Keep Chris Jones and bump down to the right player and that would be the Right, right Offensive Lineman… or Linebacker to the range of Brett Veach’s selection which we all hope will be #32.
Trading out of that draft pick may be the best solution and keep in mind that for the 2020 draft, GM Brett Veach has only five picks to work with. By trading back, we pick up a 6th pick and that second pick would fall within the top 100 players of ranking and import — hence trading out of round one would certainly be very viable.
I agree with most that there are three top needs for the Chiefs. I regard LB as the weakest link among the 3 but the offensive Line needs to get stronger by far and also deeper: further, the Chiefs are weak in the Cornerback with two players under contract and a UDFA that is on the PS (Fenton, Ward and Brown). Paul then tosses in the next consideration which is to have an offensive tool as the #2 Tight End and with this I wholeheartedly agree.
If you could trade out your 1 pick for a high 2nd round plus another as the enticement pick(ex. round 3, top 100 pick or better), would certainly help anti-up the incoming young talent from the draft from five to six.
Alias Jones
The problem the Chiefs face with Chris Jones is the CBA protects the player from the tag and trade scenario. Keep in mind that I don’t wish to lose Chris Jones. He is worth the investment in many ways but the bottom line for him is versatility. Power of the rush from the inside helps the play of others across the front four in pass play scenarios because this is indeed an Aerial League now (Don Coryell’s voice whispering from the past). At DE, Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah could be back in play. Xavier Williams has returned to the active roster. Breeland Speaks will return from his 2019 injury and in my view the Chiefs have a lot of viability with talent and ability from which to make choices to populate the Defensive Front. Hence my worries about position weakness flow from LB to OL to CB with added emphasis on TE.
The Tag and Trade
The problem for Veach and the idea of Tag and Trade must be considered. Veach will face a dilemma outlined below. In 2019, I wrote an article regarding the percentage of players taken in rounds 2 and 3 being nearly equal to the percentage of players in round 1, who have successful NFL careers, which is a factor that I think must be in consideration.
I don’t believe that the tag and trade idea will work. The question in my mind is what is Jones truly worth? I think now, he was a first round talent (selected #37, 2016) that was missed by every team in the NFL and I am sure that he has played that way — and believes this to be the case himself. You may recall in that draft, I had him as a must draft player in round 2 or 3.
Down to Brass Tacks
Even if tagged, the player can defeat the tag and trade scenario and prevent also a transition tag at the same time – the player does not have to accept the Tag offer and he can challenge it to prevent a tag and trade scenario as noted above. This is the main reason it won’t work. Jones is no dummy and unless he has a really stupid Agent, it won’t be possible.
The advantage of accepting the transition tag is that the player becomes one of the top 10 players paid for the position question. For Jones, that would actually hurt because I think he sees ($) v ($) signs in his eyes. He wants to be paid like a player in the top 5 of paid players on the Interior Defense Line… and he deserves it to be quite truthfully.
The Chiefs are between hard spots in this regard: they should pay the player because the transitional tag won’t be enough for Jones. He would then have to consider that the amount taken even from an offer is not the amount he is looking to gain in terms of his stature as a 43 DT. Using the exclusive or non-exclusive tag would work depending on how the Chiefs view Jones and his tenure with the team. The tag and trade idea won’t work and would be defeated by the player’s agent and here is why:
The NFL’s CBA Article 4 Section 8, subsection (b) Stipulates:
“A Club extending a Required Tender must, for so long as that Tender is extended, have a good faith intention to employ the player receiving the Tender at the Tender compensation level during the upcoming season.”
The problem for a player is: if he doesn’t sign the contract with tendering team, he must sit out that upcoming season.
Three Types of Tags
There are 3 types of tags: Exclusive, Non-Exclusive, and Transitional.
1) With the Exclusive Tag the player can only sign with their own club or he must sit out a year.
2) For the Non-Exclusive Tag – the player (rep), can negotiate a deal with another team. But if he accepts it the original team gets 2 first round picks. That is very costly to the team which acquires the player.
3) The 3rd type of tag is the Transitional Tag. The team places a transitional tag which is a 1 year deal paying the average of the top 10 salaries at the position or 120% of the players previous year salary at the position, whichever is the most money. The player can negotiate with other teams for a deal but the team has the right to choose to match that offer or not. If the original team — the team loses any compensation if they do not match the offer however.
Beyond the Tags and the Combine
Chiefs Player Retention must be considered as a foremost project that must be designated for solution before the combine.
As Ladner Morse observed in his article on Wednesday, the draft situation may end up being very favorable to the Chiefs in terms of the “Bump Down” for player needs of the Chiefs and how the players would be considered as a ranked list of players to be taken. Morse considered that the top Chiefs needs were: LB, CB or OL. Here, I prefer to use a differentiation for positions as being: OT, IOL (OG or OC) and add to the list a TE.
It is my view that the Chiefs need to make such a player a choice in their first two picks if at all possible. I am sure you also have read my views in the past about the import of Linebackers. I am not so sure that Ragland departs because the Chiefs need a head butting, run stopping linebacker in the mix. I must admit that the acquisition of Anthony Hitchens was not a wise investment. Deron Lee has not been a factor nor has Dorian O’Daniel. When push came to shove in 2019, the Chiefs had an unfulfilled need for an IDL (Interior Defensive Lineman) who could be a run stopping plug: a player who could occupy the offensive blocking in the middle. Wonder of wonders was the fortune for the Chiefs when Brett Veach brought Mike Pennel aboard. It took a big loss to the Titan’s to prove that point because Pennel was not active and it took Steve Spagnuolo to school about the import of his being on the field in the middle of a run stopping defensive sets. No, Pennel doesn’t play at the same level that Dontari Poe did – but he fulfills the role for the Chiefs of a 0 or 1 gap tough run stopper who can fend off blockers inside.
The Offensive Line: is it really the huge problem we all envision?
It is also my view that with a single offseason, the Chiefs can obtain an offensive player for the interior offensive line in the draft and also potentially find a free agent as well. They should retain Stefan Wisniewski who has proven his worth to the Chiefs interior Offensive line. He is inexpensive enough, can start, and do so at three positions.
Before I write off any offensive linemen, I consider what we must do to replace a player we release. That is costly for any team so the players that I think require deeper thought are Andrew Wylie, LDT and Austin Reiter. I have been very disappointed in LDT this year as well as Reiter, though not so much with Wylie. Further, we must consider that Martinas Rankin. Cam Erving will depart.
Morse, in his article, observed that it might be possible to draft a top OT and to move Eric Fisher inside to guard. I really like that idea because Fisher has plenty of NFL time now, he is a Pro Bowl performer but his footwork is slow in pass protection at LOT. Moving to LOG would be advantageous way to fill two positions. I am nonplussed about the play of LDT and can only presume that his injury affected him more than I could ever have suspected. Keep in mind that Wylie is going to be available for the playoffs which helps the Chiefs OL and gives us further ability to see his worthiness and that LDT has been a solid ROG.
For 2020 that is an added advantage. Consider that Wylie was indeed an excellent acquisition by Veach as a UDFA – inexpensive with a pretty good upside as it turned out. I don’t pretend to know what is in the mind of Veach and Company, but rest assured they will take into consideration time, tenure and familiarity with Reid’s offense as a crucial factor in looking at the OL. If there is a solution by drafting an OT, it would mean that the “Bump Down” potential of the draft has likely occurred and it has born fruit so that Veach could take advantage of the situation.
For the Non-NFL Sofa Experts (of which I am one): LB’s
In 2016 I was lobbying for the Chiefs to draft a LB with a top pick, looking down the road to replacing DJ. From our own witness of the travails of two sequential Achilles and non-DJ performance after that illustrate the problem. I thought Dorsey would attend to this in 2016 and he didn’t (even though he was a LB in his own NFL career).
Brett Veach gave it an effort by acquiring first Reggie Ragland and then Anthony Hitchens. Ragland I scouted for the draft and he was a high pick that I was positive about. It turns out I was over optimistic about his 3 down ability. Hitchens I thought, was going to be a successful choice as well. Neither fulfilled my expectations but I do value Ragland as a two down LB.
The Chiefs are LB light of that there is no doubt. Deron Lee is under contract so it will come down to whether or not they retain Ragland in my view. Damien Wilson who was the Chiefs best performing LB in 2019. This is probably the Chiefs top Free Agent need for 2020 as the draft offers little as a solution. The Chiefs would still need to use one of their five picks to get another player into the mix. At this point it will be interesting to see what Veach does with this position. Linebackers who can be both good run stoppers and cover the pass well are few and far between which makes them a top value commodity and in my view that need began in 2016. DJ’s struggles from 2016 through to when he departed, illustrate the point. A player with the ability of DJ arrive in the NFL and are snapped up earlier than early.
2020 has no solution for me at this time because Dylan Moses has decided to postpone entry to the draft until 2021. Which reduces the number of plausible round 1 selections (or high round 2 picks) to being Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) who will be long gone before the Chiefs pick in 2020.
The Weakest, By Numbers game: CB
Due to the fact that the Chiefs will only have two CB’s under contract when the off-season begins spells a problem area that must be fixed. Ward and Fenton are under contract. From the start of the 2nd half of the season, Bashaud Breeland has played well and I want to retain him. He did have a couple of very tough games early on but settled in nicely. As long as Fuller offers Spagnuola multiple position looks, I think the Chiefs will retain Kendall as well.
This draft in 2020 is CB rich though and pretty deep. Keep in mind that whoever is selected, it is important to consider Run Defense as a top requirement. This leaves out two of the top ranked corners (Fulton and Diggs). I like Hall at 6’1”-200: he is a good pick for the Chiefs and I am not deriding any player on this list. He also played football with the “Juan and Only” and I think that also helps the fit.
A Look Towards Tight End
Paul Pulley has preached enough about TE #2 and I must agree with his view: having such a #2 TE would be a boon to the offense and compliment Travis Kelce. It would help with keeping the offense as a totally tough out for any competition who faces the Chiefs. Although, K.C. already does have a PS Player who might be a help: John Lovett.
My Final Point Is…
Eight days ago, in a piece called: “Under the Radar Chiefs to Know in 2020“ Ransom Hawthorne wrote an important consideration before we even worry about the combine, the draft or Free Agent signings… he deliberated on the potential of players already on the Chiefs roster who could be factors which might not be in the mind of many. I especially liked his point about John Lovett’s potential in providing an offensive threat.
“Anthony Sherman is still a great leader, and an excellent special teams player, but if Andy Reid plans to actually use a fullback, it’s time to find an option who can do a little more. John Lovett seemed to be headed for that role before injury kept him off the roster. Lovett is a tone-setter and a hard worker. He’s got wicked athleticism for his size, and could quickly become a dynamic receiving threat.”
Happy New Year everyone!
David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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