Chiefs: Cautious Optimism Runs Rampant

I have been more than cautiously optimistic about the Chiefs football club’s outlook for 2021. With high expectations of the players in the new mix across the board, perhaps I should tinge those expectations a bit due to the youth movement unfolding before our eyes. At the same time, much of my optimism centers on veteran players performing well.

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Do my over-exuberant expectations mean that this outlook is faulty? That’s what I’ve been deliberating the past 3 or 4 days. Things always happen during the season, which gives us total hope only to see it dashed in real-time performances. My crystal ball may have been forecasting impending triumph inappropriately so, let’s take a look at what I expected and see if I erred. Especially these players that I previously predicted to have Break-out and Break-in seasons along with two upgraded views in Honorable Mentions.

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Break-out Prediction: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

No doubt about this one, Clyde had a good season in 2020, but the focus of the year went elsewhere in the playcalling and targeting. Additionally, the Chiefs OL was not a good run-blocking group. At the same time, CEH missed a game due to the flu. We have witnessed what Clyde can do in just a single preseason game with good blocking. Plus, he’s touted as a good WR and we saw him split wide in 2020. I’m still predicting over 1,200 yards rushing and around 500 yards receiving.

I don’t think I have a miss on this prediction.

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Break-out Prediction: WR Mecole Hardman

Mecole is hard to figure. He has over the top speed, but his rep though indicated a route running deficiency. Everything that I saw in the training camp looked good. I am sticking with it. 800 Yards Receiving plus some S/T work for Dave Toub gets us a great value in 2021. If there is a question in listing Mecole, it’s related to the previous 2 years where he just didn’t fulfill what we all thought was his promise. It’s time for it to happen. Will it?

I am sticking with the projection.

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Break-out Prediction: Creed Humphrey

We have seen the real deal in camp and one preseason game. The staff is as confident in this as am I. Humphrey will earmark a long, successful career as the Chiefs center — Count on it!

Creed is looking great so far.

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Breakout Prediction: LB Willie Gay, Jr.

I remain confident that Willie Gay, Jr. after having been highly challenged with time in 2020 and having had starts plus a top-level performance in 2020… will indeed be a breakout player in 2021. He exudes confidence. Due to the concussion protocol he missed the game vs the 49ers. I expect to see him burst on the scene and burst the seam of the lack of attention Gay deserves.

I continue to project that we will witness some great playmaking by Gay.

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Break-out Prediction: CB L’Jarius Sneed

At the time, some took exception to this since they felt he had a break-out season his rookie year. I felt he should be added since he was injured and unavailable from week 4 to 10. I did not doubt his ability to play the role both inside and out, but I think he re-proves the rep in 2021, big time. He is the most talented CB in the group.

I don’t know about you but I really love what Sneed does defending passes.

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Breakout Candidate DE Taco Charlton

I did have Taco as a Breakout Candidate, but I’m still waiting on this to happen. Let’s hope that we’re not disappointed. I do remain confident that he will make it happen in Spagnuolo’s alignment for his DE’s. May well be I am too fond of the idea that it will happen.

This may be the most questionable anticipations of all those which I made.

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New Breakout Players

Newly Added Breakout Candidate: Trey Smith

I had previously listed as Trey Smith as a Honorable Mention. I’ve moved Trey up as a “Breakout” player. Smith is was going to be a great success in the NFL and he will open the season as the starting RG. Previously, I then backed away from that, worried that my predictions include too many rookies on the OL. Kyle Long’s injury in OTA’s followed by LDT’s hand injury gave me pause and reason to reconsider the starting role. Smith is a mountain of an OG and a man-mover!

I can’t see anything that is negative to adding Trey Smith to the Break-out group.

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Newly added Breakout Candidate: Lucas Niang

I had also previously listed as Niang as a Honorable Mention. In a similar vein, I had early on predicted that Niang would be a starter and that he could, if required, move to the left side. I then backed away from that prediction, perhaps over-influenced by caution. I worried that it didn’t seem plausible that Reid and Heck would start three rookies, but Lo and Behold, the worm turns due to injury. Mike Remmers missed 10 practice sessions at training camp, and in steps Niang. At that point, Lucas Niang took on the role and has not let go since that time. I recall his workout videos from early this year and I was impressed. The 49ers game gave me a reason to renew my enthusiasm.

I am predicting that Niang is the new Chiefs RT and will have a Break-out year.

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Break-In Players

Break-In Prediction: WR Cornell Powell

Powell has not had a break-out camp. That much is true. At the same time, Powell has the support of OC Eric BIeniemy and WR coach Joe Bleymaier and that should go a long way in supporting the idea that Powell will be a success at WR. The question revolves around his potential and can he fulfill the idea of what can be accomplished with the Reid complicated offense, then this will occur as we approach the season’s midway point.

I am sticking with this view.

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Break-in Candidate: LB Nick Bolton

Presently, Bolton he won’t be one of the starters except in the base 4-3 or hybrid looks. He will have an impact. It could be better than that! I do really like what Bolton is going to bring to the table. Our LB corps is going to be very solid and Nick will be a big part of it.

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Players Who Flash, Not Flashes in the Pan

I Hope.

Omari Cobb, LB

In the 2020, I had thought Cobb would be drafted. He wasn’t. He had a lot of good tape. As important, was his camp performance plus his showing in the first preseason game. As an NFL LB, he is light, but has the length that stacks up. It was my estimation at the time of the draft, if he could add 5 pounds, he would fit more closely to the NFL ideal. If he could add 10, he would be right there. I really like his length at 6’3″. His frame appears to me to be large enough to grow into some weight. What I really liked about him was his mobility and ability to cover the pass. My view hasn’t changed about this. Cobb’s 40 time was 4.71. He looked good against the 49ers. and I hope he’s on the 53-man roster. I have to say that Darius Harris and Emmanuel Smith also had decent outings, but Cobb is my guy.

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Cobb’s RAS from Pro Football Reference is positive with weight as the only red flag.

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Jody Fortson: TE

Fortson put on some weight to move into the TE class. He has fired it up in camp as well as the 1st preseason game. I really liked him last year too, and he flashed as a WR. There is little that is a downtick for me when added to Travis Kelce and Noah Gray. He offers a significant target for Patrick Mahomes that could be important when the Chiefs line up in 13-personnel. He has WR tricks to his experience and he goes after contested catches. The only thing that I see as a limitation is he is still a TE on the light side at 230 lbs., even with the extra muscle. I like Jody bunches. In 2021, I anticipate that he will make the 53-man roster, but the proof is in the pudding.

Fortson is an underdog and one of those guys that get results: UDFAs are something you have to root for.

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Noah Gray: TE

As Laddie Morse once wrote:

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“Noah Gray dropped THREE balls out of 107 targets. That’s a 97.2% catch rate. That’s astoundingly good… I mean great.… Gray also played all over the field and will be another nightmare for the DC’s of the league to defend…. For those naysayers, you should know that Noah Gray had more receiving yards in college than Travis Kelce did. Kelce = 875, Gray = 948.”

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I like Gray a lot more since he and I discussed him. Gray has been a shining start in camp. In the first preseason game he was targeted twice, both times open, but the QB made poor passes.

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The above pass was long. Another hit behind him. It was a miracle that he got turned enough to get a hand on the ball. Noah wasn’t on my list from the July 22nd article, but I remain very optimistic about the potential success. His skill-set fits. Here’s Noah Gray’s RAS:

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Gray will make the Roster and like Fortson offers expansive receiver and route running traits and possibilities.

I think the Chiefs keep 4 Tight Ends, including Noah Gray and Jody Fortson.

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Final Notes

There are other players that I have my eye on, such as WRs like Daurice Fountain or Maurice Ffrench, plus LB Riley Cole, and you can add Chris Lammons or Dicaprio Bootle, and my list goes on from there. We must let it flow and see what comes out of the other end of the “prep-season”. As of this moment, I don’t see roadblocks and the injury status of no lost seasons thus far is good news as well.

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*My caveat about the Front Five on the offensive line is a 100% change out from 2020. They must “Gel” and get the 3-C’s (consistency, cohesion, continuity — now I noted that I should add a 4th C – Communication). I do not suppose that this OL play is going to be error-free. It is a work in progress. Friday we get to watch the starters for half the game!

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I like the roster top to bottom and there’s talent all over the place. The problem is… Veach will be releasing good players when the final cut is made, but that’s a good problem to have. Then we will see what happens with the stocking up on the PS. My optimistic thoughts are running rampant about 2021, so I will end my rant here. Fun Stuff awaits us all and It’ll be football season before we know it.

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David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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