Kansas City Chiefs Laddie Morse

Chiefs Choices: Why It Doesn’t Matter, Mainly

LadnerMorse June 12, 2019 No Comments Gallery

 

Chiefs Choices: Why It Doesn’t Matter, Mainly

The Kansas City Chiefs have some tough choices to make on the face of things. Last year they had to cut ties with their 2017 – 3rd round pick, RB Kareem Hunt, and the next man up, Damien WIlliams, stepped up and filled in admirably. This year the Chief are also being forced to deal with a difficult situation involving one of their players and issues of child abuse as well as figuring out if a star defensive lineman can be signed without seeing how he performs in a new system as determined by the new defensive coaching staff.

While these are trying situations for the present regimes at One Arrowhead Way, when it comes right down to it, no matter what happens, it doesn’t really matter.

  • Sure… it would be great if Kareem Hunt hadn’t lied and was still on the Chiefs roster (even being suspended a half a season) and,
  • Sure… it would be great if Tyreek Hill was a sensitive and caring father and was going to be available this whole season (but he’s likely to get a 4-6 game suspension) and,
  • Sure… it would be great if the Chiefs could pay DL Chris Jones what he’s worth (but it could cripple the organization financially if they do).

While those would all sure be great… none of that may matter at all. Mostly.

The Loss of RB Kareem Hunt

The Chiefs had such a great thing going last year, with their second-year running back coming off of a league leading rushing title and their second-year quarterback in the midst of his MVP run in his first year as a starter. Then, suddenly, in a 24 hour period, their star RB was gone from the team. The reality is… Kareem Hunt lied to the team and when someone lies to you, can you ever really trust them again? Perhaps, but, what’s done is done and they moved on to Damien WIlliams.

Damien Williams is the next man up

WIlliams immediately showed he could step in and make an impact in Andy Reid’s offense. Was he immediately as good as Kareem Hunt? No, but then not many guys in the league could make that jump. You can go down the list of skills you want your running back to possess and DWill has every single one at a superior level: Good hands? Check. Speed? Check. Durability? Check (he hasn’t been used a lot so he’s still fresh). Good jump cut? Check. Here’s one of my favorite runs by Damien Williams which displays a variety of his skills:

 

Why it won’t matter much.

Andy Reid has a history of next man up in his life as a head coach. From 2004 to 2008, a five year period, Brian Westbrook was Reid’s #1 RB in Philly and he averaged, 983 yards rushing per year and 639 yards receiving. After Westbrook went down to a series of injuries in 2009, LeSean McCoy took over in in Reid’s last three years there, McCoy averaged, 1,008 yards rushing per year and 427 yards receiving. That’s all to say that Andy Reid seems to have an eye for running backs and we should not worry about the production needed from Damien WIlliams.

The Possible Loss of Tyreek Hill

There is no replacing Tyreek Hill. That’s the sentiment of most Chiefs fans. I’m not far from there either. However and once again, this is Andy Reid’s offense and he’s the one that really makes it go. He writes the plays. He cooks up variations on those plays. He chooses his own players and with Brett Veach now at the helm at GM, Reid is always the one to give his final approval. Sports Illustrated wrote a piece called, “Andy Reid is creating football’s future and Patrick Mahomes is living it” in which it says,

 

“To watch Kansas City’s offense in 2018 is to participate in a sort of shell game, striving to keep track of movements as objects are deftly rearranged in front of you. Reid’s Chiefs send someone in presnap motion more… more than any other team in the league. Their two most dangerous pass catchers, Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, dart all over the formation, creating for quarterback Patrick Mahomes endless possibilities for where to go with the football.”

With Sammy Watkins beginning his second season in Reid’s shifting maze-in-a-cornfield of an offense, it matters more who has experience than how fast you can run the 40.

Andy Reid changes receivers like most of us change the toilet paper roll. Once again, while in Philly, from 2007 to 2010, a 4-year period, Reid used 8 different receivers who became his top 3 yardage leading receivers in a given year. So, in 12 potential receiving positions, Reid used 8 different players.

It’s hard to be too worried when your head coach, and resident offensive genius, knows how to manipulate the roster chess pieces in his sleep, to create a winning season with them, seemingly at will. In Andy Reid’s 20 years as a head coach — aside from his first season, and I’ll give him a mulligan there — he’s had only two losing seasons. Two… and both of those were with the Philadelphia Eagles, in 2005 and 2012. While I’m sure Andy Reid cares deeply, and personally, for Tyreek Hill… professionally, the possible loss of Hill, to him, must be another chore to check off of his honey-do list. Would he prefer to have Hill and his speed and experience to continue to work with. Absolutely, but I don’t think that Reid planning for the use of other players to accomplish his game day objectives will suffer much, if at all.

Was the production of Tyreek Hill in 2018 — 1,479 receiving yards (and a 20% increase over his 2017 stats) — due more to his own ability or… that of Patrick Mahomes’ vast skill set with Reid’s scheming and play calling? Since we know that Hill had 1,183 receiving yards in 2017, then we know Hill is talented in Reid’s offense but, the increase from one year to the next can not be totally attributed to Hill.

The Possible Loss of DL Chris Jones

If it is true, as Ransom Hawthorne has outlined in his piece called, “The Harsh Truth: Chiefs Unlikely to Extend Chris Jones” then the Chiefs will be facing the proposition of all three of their leading sackers in 2018 gone from the team. While it seems unlikely, Jones could sit out this year, don’t forget who he is very good friends with, that being, one Mr. Le’Veon Bell, who sat out all of 2018. Jones, could be traded. He could play this year and get franchise tagged next season or, traded then.

If the Chiefs do come to an agreement with Chris Jones, it’s probably not going to be Frank Clark money: 5 years for $104M contract with a $19M signing bonus and $62.3M guaranteed. Ransom had this to say about a projected cap for 2020 if the Chiefs attempt to sign Chris Jones:

“… the Chiefs in 2020, are projected to have around $176M in cap commitments and $23M in remaining cap space, pre Over The Cap. From this, I’ll be using $200M as the expected salary cap for 2020. With that in mind, K.C. is slated to spend 61.56%, of their cap, on their top 10 players.

Consider this though: since 2011 only eight teams have spent over 60% of their cap space on their top 10… and…those teams average 5.5 wins. That’s pretty damning. If however, the Chiefs are able to roll over $10M+ in cap space, that puts them within a healthy range. The trouble, of course, is that the Chiefs 2020 lineup does not include a salary for CB Kendall Fuller, CB Bashaud Breeland, or DT Chris Jones, nor does it include an extension for Patrick Mahomes.”

This offseason, the Chiefs brought in a possible replacement for Tyreek Hill. Why mention that here. Because they’ve done the same thing for Chris Jones… only most Chiefs fans might not want to admit it. Frank Clark, Alex Okafor, Khalen Saunders, Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Justin Hamilton all represent possible players who could displace Jones. Would they be an upgrade? In most cases, no, not at all. However, Brendan Daly has experience — Super Bowl winning experience — in coaching and scheming his DL to use crosses, stunts, slants, twists, loops, blitzes and fake blitzes… to apply pressure on the opposing QB. I expect that if the front office is asking Brendan Daly and Steve Spagnuolo if Chris Jones is a “must-keep” player to accomplish their goals, the answer they’re providing is, no.

Yes, I want to see Chris Jones signed but signed for a team friendly deal. Would I like to see Chris Jones get paid. Sure, but to do that it sounds like he’ll have to go elsewhere. Will I always be a Chiefs fans? Yes. Will I always be a Chris Jones fan? Yes… unless he helps another team beat the Chiefs.

New DC Steve Spagnuolo recently said this about the Chiefs new DL coach:

“Brendan went up there [to New England] and leaned from one of the best — if not the best — coach in football: coach Belichick. He’s brought a lot of that here. I pick his brain — you know, What would Bill have done here? — so it’s nice to have; a good resource to go to.”

It doesn’t sound like coaches who are lacking in confidence… or coaches needing another $18-to-$20 million dollar man on the defensive line.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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