Chiefs: Christmas Movie Punch List and Playoff Projection

Another week, another exciting Chiefs victory. This team gets more fun to watch every game. I am a self-proclaimed sports optimist, so I have been on high hope all season. You would not find me at any #firespags rallies, and I also spent very little time dogging players. This includes Dirty Dan, but I did end up on the cut his snaps bus. I have been ride or die, expect it to work out, why wouldn’t we be in the Super Bowl mode pretty much all season. Am I saying this to gloat? Not even a little. What would be the point of that. Sports is an emotional landscape, and we as humans process our emotions differently. I like to think of myself as a pragmatic optimist, which means I expect wins but can handle losses that make sense. This includes realizing that they usually make sense.

I want to also mention that I don’t fault people who react differently than me, and this includes and almost highlights the Chicken Little types. There is nothing wrong with seeing a Patrick Mahomes led roster at 3-4, and assuming it means the sky is falling. I personally disagree, but that is not my relationship with sports. Sports consumption is a big life driver, but I consider it healthy and rational. My wife and kids keeping me in the house and off the streets is my personal validation. This all said I have irrational thoughts and tendencies, and that makes me like, well, everyone else.

General Irrational Dislikes

This is a fun topic for me. We all have opinions of everything. Many of them a very strongly rooted. The majority probably make a ton of sense given the basis in personal experience. But we all have opinions that are irrational. It could be a strong overreaction. Maybe it’s a desertion from accepted truths. It’s even possible to be a manifestation of digging heels into something menial. The real fun in my mind is identifying your personal list.

The exercise started for me with my friend group many years ago. I began when a manager of mine started to list out things that he strongly dislikes in office water cooler talk. A few of us had a laugh and disbelief when we realized what made the list. A colleague left the company, named the list and presented on a plaque.

The Dave (Last Name Omitted) Banned

The total list was about a dozen items, but here are my favorites:

  • Tiger Woods
  • Watermelon
  • Chicken Wings
  • The Beatles
  • Beetlejuice (the Michael Keaton movie)

The context starts fine. This guy is an avid golfer, and Tiger always had his polarized detractors, but this list quickly derails into the wild. I mean, everyone likes the Beatles, right? Our group had so much fun with this that we decided to note and communicate our own quirks, and this meant creating basic rules. Items making this list needed to incite strong personal reactions, and had to check an “everyone likes these things” box. No one likes these things, so it’s not appropriate to list:

  • Paying taxes
  • Hemorrhoids
  • Non-elective in-patient surgery
  • Rush hour traffic

Think about this one, keep a list, and make it running. It’s fun to embrace your quirks. Here are some more fun ones from my circle.

Adam (the guy who made the plaque)

Adam made his list almost immediately, and this whole thing is really his brain child. My favorite entry of his: American Light Lager. This means he hates, Bud Light, Coors Light and Miller Lite. And it is not lack of preference dislike. It is fire of a thousand suns beer snobbery. Some common lines:

(We approach the bar at a concert venue)
“They have beer and Miller Lite” – Adam

(The cooler lady at an outdoor festival asks if we want beer, which includes the above list)
“That’s not beer” – Adam

This is a great addition to the list because sheer economics place him in the minority. Micro brewery tours almost always point out that Coors/Miller/Bud spill more beer on the floor than their annual production.

Anthony (a guy on my event service DJ team)

Anthony is a DJ for weddings and other types of parties. His life and profession is music. The dislikes of note for him are these songs:

  • “Dancing Queen” by ABBA
  • “Take On Me” by A-Ha

These are pretty common wedding fare, and anyone who has attended one in the past 50 years has undoubtedly heard and danced to one or both. Anthony acknowledges himself in the wrong, and minority, but refused to act, to like the songs. Perfect entries for this list.

My List

My most noted entry is Phil Collins. This is in the same thread as Anthony and his songs- I just don’t care for Phil Collins. Where did this come from? South Park. Specifically Season 4, Episode 3. This iconic episode introduced Timmy, who is the kid in the wheelchair, and put him in front of a local garage band called Lords of the Underworld. Another notable handicap for Timmy is that he can only say his own name. This leads to the accusation that the band’s popularity with Timmy up front is based on concert goers intention to ridicule Timmy and his handicap. This ends up not being the case and the kids are friends with Timmy because they like him, and the accusing adults are the jerks. Although South Park is crass and vulgar, it is also smart and does make points like this.

Phil Collins is the main adult leading the accusation. He is an angry caricature of himself, and walks around with his Grammy from the Tarzan soundtrack the whole episode. The kids are all diagnosed with ADD and given Ritalin, which makes them fans of Phil Collins. Did I watch this episode as a freshman in college and decide that Phil Collins was lame, corporate, sell-out “rock” music that deserved to be panned? Yep. Have I dug my heel in on this countless times? Again, yep. Do I still actually believe this? Not really. Is it part of my personal brand among friends and necessary for this list? Yep.

A Popular Holiday Movie

The second entry I will highlight is a popular holiday movie. I honestly did not realize I had this movie on my dislike list until I was putting notes for this column. My next move is to give my favorite Christmas movies. But first, I have to note the one I irrationally dislike. Brace yourself Gen X and Millennials. I hate the movie A Christmas Story. The plot is stupid, the characters are horrible, and it plays on a cable loop all December. I find a small amount of humor in the leg lamp and tongue stuck on the telephone pole, but that’s about it. Am I just as much in the minority here as with Phil? Yeah, for sure. But I’m not changing or watching A Christmas Story this or future years.

My Christmas Movie Punch List

With all of the above cleared up I arrive to my actual topic for this entry: Christmas movies I DO like. I have a handful of personal rituals that have developed over the years, and Christmas Day features one of them. I watch somewhere between 2.5 and 5 movies every year, and it is in a very specific order. The list has been tweaked a bit, and is really a collaboration with my wife. We have been doing this for about a decade at this point and our families know it is coming. I will get to the list soon, but first humor me for one more sidebar.

Flight Take Off Ritual

This is my favorite personal ritual. Many years ago I had a corporate travel job that had me on a plane numerous times a week. Business travel is not the best lifestyle for a family man, but I loved it back then. Flying, visiting other cities, finding local cuisine, and meeting people at sporting events, fit me quite well for a spell. One day my friend Adam, yes the guy mentioned earlier in this column, told me something that changed my life: play Danger Zone from the Top Gun soundtrack when you take off. I tried, felt like a fighter pilot, and have not missed a takeoff since. Adam and I have calculated the precise timing for max effectiveness to these steps:

  1. Cue Danger Zone as the plane pulls away from the gate. Make sure it is at the absolute beginning of the song.
  2. Observe the process of getting a plane in the air and listen to the cues.
  3. The pilot will come on the intercom and say something to the effect of “flight attendants prepare the cabin for takeoff.” This is code for now that all passengers have been verified buckled get yourself that way.
  4. The plane will often turn onto the active runway, but you will always hear a ding. This is the important cue, and your notice to hover over the play button.
  5. The pilot then dumps the throttle, the planes gains speed, and you hit play.
  6. Enjoy the first chorus starting as the wheels leave the ground.

I am on a decade of this being my ritual. It happens every time, on every craft, and to every destination. My recommendation is build your own playlist, but Danger Zone is track 1.

My Full Playlist with Notes

I normally have random music going as the plane taxies, and simply skip to Danger Zone at the appropriate time. Here is my full list in order with notes:

  1. Danger Zone – Kenny Loggins: reasoning stated in detail above.
  2. Drunk On A Plane – Dierks Bentley: this song is a blast and the additional track that turned this into a playlist exercise. I added it as a way to keep the momentum going from Danger Zone. This is the DJ side of me talking.
  3. On Top of the World – Imagine Dragons: there is no such thing as a 2 song playlist, and at this point I was in it. This times to about the time the plane reaches altitude, and it is safe to use your large electronics.
  4. Come Fly With Me – Frank Sinatra: no playlist is complete without Sinatra. This was the last of what I call my original playlist.
  5. Leaving on a Jet Plane – Peter, Paul and Mary: this is the newest addition to the list. I shared my list with a friend just last week, and his immediate question was about this song. Point taken, added, and it fits great after Sinatra. It also opens for an energy, pace and genre change to:
  6. Fight For Your Right – Beastie Boys: this song was added to the list during the media week of Super Bowl LIV. I was at the AFC Championship game and witnessed Kelce’s speech live. The KC alt rock station played the song on loop for 3 hours after the game. An absolute must.
  7. All The Way Up – Fat Joe, Remy Ma, French Montana, InfaRed: this is another recent addition on suggestion from a friend. This is her song. She added Danger Zone to hers, and I added this to mine. Collaboration and flexibility is key… but stay firm on your lead track.
  8. Leaving Town – Dexter Freebish: this song came out during my early college days and I always dug it. I was opening the list to add All The Way Up, and found it fit to add this too.

This playlist puts me in a good mood. There is no level of airport drama that can bring me down after this.

My Christmas Movie Punch List (for real this time)

Thanks for staying with me through all that side bar stuff. I brought it up to illustrate how much thought I put into things like a flight playlist or Christmas movie list. The movie list starts family friendly and departs to more adult theme. We normally start the movie run after dinner and put the kids to bed halfway through movie 2. Sometimes is a later start and we don’t go the whole distance. The goal is to hit the top 3, and have a plan after. And, yes, this can lead to staying up all night. These things happen sometimes.

  1. Elf: Director Jon Favreau — a true national treasure — and writer David Berenbaum gave us this gem in 2003. This truly grabs the whole family, people of all ages. My dad lists Will Ferrell high on his dislike list, but loves him in this role.
  2. Christmas Vacation: I mentioned this one last month when referencing 1989. This is the best Vacation franchise movie, and a must for me. Cousin Eddie is a the height of his powers, and the gags are nonstop. Every guy in the world has at least considered doing the lights like Clark. And every kid has added cooking spray to their saucer sled. Classic.
  3. Bad Santa: and now the kids have gone to bed. This is a good thing because this movie is NOT family friendly. Billy Bob Thornton masterfully plays a drunk redneck dead set on ruining Christmas. The cast is spot on and the story is interesting. I love laughing through this dark comedy on a dark Christmas night.
  4. Die Hard: this is the first of the overtime list, and it normally starts in the 11-midnight range. Sometimes it is missed on Christmas, but this movie is viewed before New Year’s Eve. This is a Christmas movie, and I will link two people who agree here and here.
  5. Scrooged: if sleep is not happening by now we are hitting play on this one. Bill Murray leads my favorite twist of the Charles Dickens classic, “A Christmas Carol.” This is the perfect way to end the night.

Other Christmas Movies in Rotation

Christmas itself is a single day, but the Christmas Holiday is more like a week. The experience usually includes travel of some sort, and it ends up with extended family time. This leads to time in the living room, hanging out, and watching other holiday movies. Here is the list of other go to’s for me:

  • Home Alone and Home Alone 2: these movies have aged quite well. I still find them fun and entertaining, and I am seeing my kids gravitate to them as well. John Candy as Sheboygan based polka king, Gus Polinski is the best character. Another strong effect these movies have for me is missing John Candy, and wanting Daniel Stern in another comedy blockbuster.
  • Jingle All the Way
  • The Santa Clause
  • It’s A Wonderful Life: most of my choices are on the much newer side, but its great to check in with a classic.
  • Every Star Wars movie: they just seem to pop up in situations where there is extra down time. Wouldn’t change it for the world.

Flying High in the AFC

To repeat myself from the beginning: this season gets better every week. I am writing this on Sunday afternoon, and into Sunday Night Football. Covid is once again wrecking the schedule, so there are currently 4.5 games left in the week. However, it is very NFC heavy, and the fringe playoff hopeful Browns and Raiders are the only remaining AFC teams. No offense to those two, but the week is effectively over. Let’s talk AFC.

Chiefs in Control

This is the single wildest thing in the NFL. The once panned, floundering, last in the West, 3-4 Kansas City Chiefs are the current #1 seed. Their 5-4 conference record ensures they lose about every tie breaker scenario, but it may not even matter at all. The Chiefs totally control their destiny. The rest of the AFC can do nothing but watch and hope. A 13-4 record is the best possible record for the Chiefs, and every other AFC team has at least 5 losses. We are about to witness 3 weeks of a motivated, dialed in, peaking at the right time Chiefs team. Their mission is as clear as simple: win the 3 remaining games and –> take Wild Card weekend off. I fully expect them to do this, and have been calling it for weeks.

The rebound has been impressive, and that’s an understatement. Most mainstream media buried the Chiefs after the week 7 loss to the Titans. So did a large amount of Chiefs fans and alarms started going off around the end of week 3. The Chiefs D was historically bad, and made the Browns, Ravens and Chargers offenses look elite. Dan Sorensen was the worst rated defender, and everyone wanted Spags’ head on a platter. There were even calls to bench Mahomes and fire Reid and Veach. Every mistake in every facet from personnel to play calling was brought to light and scrutinized in triplicate. Thankfully, the Chiefs kept their heads down and pushed through.

Bottom of the Conference

As of this writing 3 teams are eliminated from the playoffs and planning for the draft. Those teams are the Jets, Texans and Jags. The Jags have more problems than fans, and should be an interesting offseason follow. The next teams looking to be eliminated are our AFC West mates: the Broncos and the Raiders. I expect these teams to combine for 1 win in their remaining 7, and that is only because they play each other. My projection is the Raiders win week 16 at home, and both teams finish 7-10. This is particularly bad for the Raiders, who started 3-0 before they realized… they are the Raiders.

Playoff Outsiders That Can Cause Problems

Enter the Steelers, Browns and Dolphins. This doesn’t feel like the Browns season. I see them beating the Raiders this week, but then getting handled by the Packers, Steelers and Bengals. They had a ton of adversity thrown at them and they were not up to the task. Better luck next year.

The Steelers and Dolphins are solid teams that are peaking at the right time, but they dug too big of a hole early. Miami beat the Jets today, and finish the season at Saints, at Titans and host the Patriots. They have the tools to win out, and that would make the playoff race very interesting. However, I don’t see them sniping the Patriots this season. A winning 9-8 will have to do. The Steelers host the Browns and go on the road to KC and Baltimore. They win the home game, but lose the road ties to better teams.

The Definition of Insanity

This was going to be a spot dedicated to the Ravens, but I will lump the Chargers here too. We have all heard: “The definition of insanity is repeating the same mistakes over and over again and expecting different results.” Ladies and Gentlemen, your recent showings from the Chargers and Raiders. The Chargers’ insanity was not kicking field goals last week against the Chiefs. To be fair the Chargers were 2-of-5 on 4th downs. However, I cannot help but think the game goes differently if the Chargers kick for 3. A 20-13 Chargers lead early in the 2nd half feels like a different dynamic. Ultimately, I understand the calls by the Chargers, and insane may be a bit harsh.

The Ravens are another story. They started the season as a favorite to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl. A sputter week 1 against the Raiders in Vegas was followed by 5 consecutive wins, and included victories over the Chiefs, Colts and Chargers. They have spent much of the season as the #1 seed, but their losses are piling. The insanity is how they have lost a couple of these games. They trailed late against the Steelers in week 13 and the Packers in 15, but scored on last minute drives. Both times an extra point — that Justin Tucker would absolutely kick — ties the game and sends it to OT. Both times they go for 2: fail and lose.

Is It Really Unknown?

Look no farther than the Chiefs @ Chargers in week 15 for a reason to avoid OT. The Chargers will — probably… and rightfully — believe the game was decided by a coin flip. I can understand an argument of wanting to avoid Aaron Rodgers getting a coin flip. The Packers did move the ball fairly freely for most of the game, but I doubt the Ravens D understands that argument at all. The Ravens gave up 31 points, but did hold the Packers to a punt and FG in the 4th. Giving the Ravens D a chance in OT sounds like a doable worst-case scenario.

The bigger sin was the Steelers game. There is no reason to fear the Steelers offense getting the ball in OT and charging down the field. Harbaugh explained the move today as “gut” call. Well, the gut is where he has punched his team twice. Feel free to call this revisionist history, but the real result is damning. The bottom line is the Ravens are on the outside looking in. Their 1-3 division and 5-5 conference records lose the tie breakers, and at present they miss the playoffs. Ultimately, I think they beat the Bengals and Steelers and get in… but an extra win (ideally week 13) would have made a massive difference now.

The Middle of the AFC Playoff Race

The Colts are surging, the Chargers are solid, and the Bills are, well… something. None of these teams are a fun playoff matchup, and all 3 could cause major issues as road teams during Wild Card weekend. I expect these 3 teams to remain the Wild Card teams, but in a slightly different order. The Chargers should win out over the Texans, Broncos and Raiders, which gives them the #5 seed and a date with whoever decides to win the North.  I project the Colts to lose to a fired up Cardinals team and the Bills to lose the Patriots again. This should set set up two inter division playoff matchups, which will be a blast.

Division Leaders

For this group we have two 9-5 teams and the AFC North. The Patriots took their loss to the Colts, which gave us the the opening to control our destiny for the #1. I don’t see them losing again, which means they handle the Bills, Jags and Dolphins (aka, last week of their season Achilles heel). The Titans took their lumps from the Steelers, which also helped the Chiefs in the controlled destiny department. They have a dicey slate of games against: the 49ers, Dolphins and Texans. It is possible they win out, but I expect a loss and am calling it against Miami.

The North is going to come down to –> the Bengals and the Ravens. They conveniently play each other in week 16, so we should have a better idea this time next week. Here is how I see this playing out:

  • Week 16: Ravens beat Bengals
  • Week 17: Bengals lose to Chiefs, Ravens lose to Rams
  • Week 18: Ravens beat Steelers to clinch, Bengals beat Browns to earn the moral victory, but head to their couch for the playoffs

AFC Final Seeding Projection

  1. Chiefs (13-4)
  2. Patriots (12-5)
  3. Titans (11-6)
  4. Ravens (10-7)
  5. Chargers (11-6)
  6. Colts (10-7)
  7. Bills (10-7)

This sets a tasty, division rivalry heavy Wild Card Weekend. It also sets up a high likelihood of some revenge in Arrowhead the following weekend. Frontier justice will be in order.

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Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne

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Follow on Twitter: @mkechiefsfans

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