Chiefs Defense is Better Than Advertised

Chiefs Defense is Better Than Advertised – Many times over the years, we have judged team defense by their overall yardage allowed. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 3,187 yards overall for an average per game of 354.2 when the league average is 360.4. Or we see their rushing defense has allowed 138.44 per game, and the league average 117.7. So if you’re looking at the Chiefs that way, their barely average overall defense with a poor rush defense is not good enough. However, let’s take a deeper look into the true details of the Kansas City Chiefs defense, rather than just looking at them on the surface. 

Note: This article was researched before the most recent Raiders game, so thoe stats are not included below. 

History Lesson

During the first 10 weeks of 2019, the Chiefs defense was allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 139.6 rushing yards per game, 369.5 overall. (Almost identical to this year). Very different from what we saw in the final 6 games of the regular season, which included 2 playoff games, and the Super Bowl:

limited the passing attack of offenses, and put more pressure on the quarterback. In essence as Tyrann Mathieu stated, they played with an attitude and a championship swagger! The Chiefs playoff team defense was indeed much improved. While defense doesn’t always win championships, the lack of a competent defense can keep a team from reaching its postseason goals.

2020 Defensive Roster Turnover

Because of COVID protocols, player suspensions, injuries, and subpar play of certain players, there’ve been 28 different defensive players log snap counts so far this year. At least 18 players have logged at least 20%, and 3 of those have been rookies. This does not include: Alex Okafor, or Khalen Saunders (both are healthy now after missing extended time with injuries), and Taco Charlton (IR list now). Their quality of play has been missed. 

The conclusion of a high player turnover rate is that it does take time for the coaches to find the right mix of players for different situations. The coaches also need to see some player’s reps, to judge their quality of play, and to learn their strengths and weaknesses. The players themselves need time playing together as a unit, to learn to communicate better, which leads to team chemistry and cohesion. So as last year’s history showed us, over the span of a year together, DC Steve Spagnuolo, his assistant coaches, and his players, eventually do develop into a championship quality defensive unit.

Yes, as the year wears on, I expect to see the three rookies play more: CB L’Jarius Sneed, DT Tershawn Wharton, and LB Willie Gay. Why? Because all three have played well enough to earn more playing time. In fact they have played better than the veterans at the same positions. By the end of the year, the player evaluations should be complete, experimenting with different combinations is no longer needed leading into the playoffs, so at that point the best available players will be getting the majority of the snaps.

We have to trust the same process as last year to take place again this year when quality play was at a top notch level for the stretch run and the playoffs. 

Top Offense Can Create Good Defense

We are in the age of new modern day offensive football, it’s no longer the smash-mouth defensive football that we saw in the 60s, and 70s. Team overall efficiency is calculated for passing and rushing as yards gained per attempt on offense minus yards allowed per attempt on defense. Better offenses gain more yards per attempt. However, better defenses allow fewer yards per attempt, so subtracting these smaller values leads to higher team efficiency.

2020 Season for Kansas City Chiefs

Here’s my own stats I put together with the help of, Football Outsiders (subscription required):

From an article at “The Power Rank” called: “The Surprising Truth About Passing and Rushing in the NFL” comes this:

Before the 1991 Super Bowl, Bill Belichick told his Giants defense to let Buffalo running back Thurman Thomas rush for 100 yards…. [David] Halberstam discusses in Education of a Coach, Belichick did want the Bills to pick up small gains on the ground if it meant keeping Jim Kelly from throwing the ball. He understood that rushing means little to winning in the NFL.

Much of the information for this piece came from this story at The Power Rank:

• From 1998 through 2017, only 39 of 252 playoff teams allowed more yards per pass attempt than they gained. This implies that 84.5% of playoff teams had a positive pass efficiency. 
• Super Bowl champions excelled in pass efficiency as well, as 15 of the 21 champions had pass efficiencies of a yard per attempt or more.
• From 1997 through 2017, only 57.5% of playoff teams (145 of 252) had a positive team rush efficiency. 
• Only 26 of 42 Super Bowl teams from 1997 through 2017 had a positive rush efficiency value, a rate of 61.9%.

For example, Indianapolis won the Super Bowl after the 2006 season despite having the NFL’s worst team rush efficiency during the regular season. Green Bay ranked 31st out of 32 teams in rush efficiency during the 2010 regular season, but the Packers won the Super Bowl anyway. Indianapolis had a remarkable run from 2003 through 2010. The Colts achieved success through the air, ranking in the top 8 in team pass efficiency each year. Peyton Manning and his offense played the bigger role, but the pass defense helped out some years. The Colts ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed per pass attempt from 2007 through 2009. However, Indianapolis was really bad in the run game. Only once in this era (2007) did they gain more yards per carry than they allowed. 

In contrast to Indianapolis, Minnesota dominated the ground game during this same period. They featured running back Adrian Peterson on offense and had tackles Pat and Kevin Williams clogging up the middle on defense. From 2006 through 2013, Minnesota finished 1st in rush efficiency four times and 3rd another two times. However, this strength led to the playoffs in only: 2008, 2009, and 2012. Minnesota went 3-13 in 2011 despite leading the NFL in rush efficiency.

The next season, they led the NFL again behind a monster season from Peterson, who made a remarkable return from knee surgery. The Vikings had a 10-6 record that season. While these two franchises represent the extremes, the trend is clear.

In the modern NFL, teams that can throw the ball and defend the pass, win games and championships. It matters little whether they can run the ball or stop the run. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs showed the Tennessee Titans, and the San Francisco 49ers that passing dominates in the NFL, and rushing hardly matters… except maybe to keep the defense honest. 

Digging Deeper Into The Numbers

Look at that 15 teams that currently have above .500 winning record, plus 1 NFC West Team (all 4 are sub .500, but 1 team has to be included in the playoffs). I will refer to these 16 Teams as Qualifiers in my forthcoming stats comparisons.

I will begin with the run game and remind everyone that every opponent we have faced all year long, seems to be trying to use the same “So-called game plan to beat the Chiefs.” Which is to: run the ball, because the Chiefs are weak against the run. 

The run defense gets more stout, tougher as the game plays out, yet teams are supposedly trying to use the run attack to control the time of possession and keep the Chiefs offense off the field. It’s difficult to stay with that game plan when as the opponent they are almost always chasing points to keep up the potent offense of the Kansas City Chiefs. 

• 1st quarter offense 5.9 (12th) defense 4.3 (10th)
• 2nd quarter offense 10.9 (4th) defense 7.1(11th)
• 3rd quarter offense 4.9 (13th) defense 0.7 (1st)
• 4th quarter offense 9.8 (1st) defense 8.2 (22nd)

The Chiefs on average win the points race all 4 quarters of the games, so as you can see by the stats, teams are almost always chasing points.  

Chiefs 3rd Down Conversion Percentage: 39.29%. Only 3 Qualifiers better. 

With the passing defense the Chiefs are top 10 in many different categories, including completion percentage, and Quarterback Efficiency Ratings. QB hurries are top 10, but sacks, bottom 10. 

The Conclusion 

My reasoning that top offense creates good defense, is because teams, coaches, and players league wide have so much respect for elite quarterbacking talent, that it causes them to play, think, and to use tactics other than in “normal” situations. The Raiders game proves my point. One aspect I took away from watching the game was that the Chiefs held the Raiders run game to 89 yards on 26 carries, for 3.4 per attempt. So by the 4th quarter with the game in the deciding moments, the Raiders (2.5 per rush att. in the 2nd half) were not able to rely on the rush attack to burn time off the clock… but… as they were chasing points on the scoreboard, they had to score a touchdown, and at this point of the game they were in pass mode only. After the Raiders scored, too much time was left on the clock for Mahomes Magic to happen again. And so it did.

Furthermore, stats, numbers, data, analytics, algorithms, standardized quotes are for geeks who truly don’t know football. Because as I’ve written before that mental aptitude is what’s important, at least at the playoff level, the mental part of the game is what Tyrann Mathieu is referring to when he has stated: Championship Swagger. That is when the defensive team needs to step up there level of play, creating mental or physical mistakes by the opposition, at a vital time of the season, or the vital time of any game. This aspect from the Chiefs is what we observed in the final nine games last year, and it culminated in a Super Bowl victory. 

Alan Haupt — ArrowheadOne

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