I was going to do another mock here — something like Mock 4.0 — but like many of you, I’m all mocked-out! So, I decided to provide my perspective on each position and the possibilities those positions get taken by the Kansas City Chiefs during this draft. However, I’ve reached the place where I’ll be happy with whoever John Dorsey and his crew decide to take. Their draft history in the past four years is very good… and way above average… and a good reason why the Chiefs current roster is as deep as it is. All but one player — Da’Ron Brown — is still on the roster from the draft two years ago in 2015. All but one player from the 2014 draft is still on the roster and that was QBOTFW (Quarterback of the Future Wannabee) Aaron Murray and while John Dorsey had two boo-boos last year — KeiVarae Russell and Kevin Logan — the rest are still, as we say, All in the Family. So, it would seem that John Dorsey and his Red and Yellow Submarine are deserving of such trust.
Without further ado…
Quarterbacks
I’ve heard Adam Schefter say that, because this is a deep draft, there are many more teams who desire to move back in the first round… and pick up more picks… than jump up. On one hand, that means that if John Dorsey wants to trade up and nab the QB of his choice, he’ll have competition. On the other hand, it also means that if he keeps the four picks he has in the first 104 picks of the 2017 draft… he should come away with four, maybe even five, players who could start or contribute heavy snaps in year one.
That’s important to know when thinking about a possible QBOTF.
Bucky Brooks seems to be the main man when it comes to projecting Deshaun Watson to the Chiefs. Daniel Jeremiah is another who thinks that a big possibility. Lyle Graversen of ArrowheadAddict thinks there’s another QB who would be best for the Chiefs:
Draft week is about here! I’d be thrilled if it went like this for the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/jU6E2THYgL
— Lyle Graversen (@LyleGraversen) April 24, 2017
My pick, for the sake of value and upside, is Davis Webb in the second or third round… if you think he’ll last that long. If John Dorsey decides to go with a QB in the first round, I’d prefer Deshaun Watson for his upbringing, mobility, championship pedigree and amenable personality. I believe Andy Reid could work best with Watson… and Watson with Reid.
So, it’s either Watson in the first round… without moving up or a minimal move… or Davis Webb in the second or third round. And that’s my pick(s)… and I’m sticking to it.
Defensive Tackle
There’s a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza… a hole that wasn’t there one week ago and I’m referring to the NT hole. Before examining if there’s a prospect in this draft there’s a question I’ve been wondering about: would John Dorsey have allowed Dontari Poe to walk in free agency if he’d known then that he would later have to cut Jaye Howard. Howard and Poe have been the mainstays on the inside of the Chiefs defensive line for the past four years, the entire John-Andy-Reid-Dorsey (JARD) era in K.C. Now, neither of them will be around.
My first choice would be DT Malik McDowell out of Michigan. McDowell is currently ranked the 20th best overall prospect in this draft by DraftTek and the 24th best by CBS Sports. At ESPN, McDowel doesn’t crack their top 32 prospects (as provided by Scout.com for ESPN) but at Scout.com’s rankings page, they list McDowell as the 12th best prospect. I believe Malik McDowell has Aaron Donald upside… which is saying a lot. At times he is dominant and at other times he’s just about to wake from his morning nap. McDowell would have to be the Chiefs first round pick if they were to select him.
Another prospect who could be Montavius Adams. Adams is good against the run and draws a double-team most of the time but he’s not as athletic as McDowell or as good with his hands. Adams is ranked #76 by CBS Sports and #37 by DraftTek. If John Dorsey wants to reel in Adams he may be able to take advantage of teams who are wanting to trade up into the bottom half of the first round then Dorsey can snag Adams later and pick up some more top 125 picks.
Running Backs
Many reports suggest that this is the year of a resurgence of the running back. What they really mean is… there are some darn fine RBs in this draft. If for some unforeseen reason one of the top three running backs fall to the Chiefs at #27, they have to run to the commissioner and hand in their card. Those top three are Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey. Both DraftTek and CBS Sports have all three RBs ranked in the top 21. Some believe all three could be gone in the top 16, much earlier than 21 and I won’t be surprised by that at all if it should happen. The reason for this sudden interest in RBs in the first round? Much of that can be traced to the selection and success of Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys last year. Of course, what many are forgetting is, Dallas had a great offensive line prior to the selection of Elliott.
If the Chiefs are going to take a running back it will likely be Alvin Kamara in the second round… or Marlon Mack with the compensatory third round pick… or Samaje Perine in the third round. I’m also a big Joe Williams fan even though he quit in the middle of the 2016 season. However, he returned later with a vengeance. Williams gained 1,407 in 2016 even though he missed four games and when he returned, he averaged 7.1 yards-per-carry (btw… that’s pretty good), and gashing UCLA for 332 yards rushing in one game (UCLA was ranked 47th in defense in 2016 out of 128 Div-I teams). The rest of the teams Williams went up against in the second half of 2016 were not patsies either: Washington (#12 in defense), Colorado (#19), and Indiana (#45) to name a few. Even if the Chiefs draft a RB in an earlier round, I’d like to see them take a chance on RB Joe Williams late in the draft. Why not… they have ten picks.
GO HERE to watch Joe Williams vs. UCLA (try the 2:50 mark because Joe Williams is really fast. 4.41 speed). Lance Zierlein quotes an unnamed NFC Area Scout saying this of Joe Williams:
“Just too many red flags for me. Getting kicked out of UConn for theft was strike one, but then you have his fumbles and his ‘retirement’. I just don’t want that hassle. Too many players to choose from.”
So, yes, I realize the risks… but I think Joe Williams is worth the risk.
Cornerbacks
A month ago I’d have said Sidney Jones would be my top pick to project to the Chiefs in the first round. There was a good chance he was going to slide right into a slot where John Dorsey could grab him near #27. Now, with Jones’ injury, I’d have to say that he’d be worth the risk as a compensatory third round pick but not higher. Because the Chiefs must now make sure they get a NT early in the draft it bumps a guy like Jones down so far they may not be able to take a chance on him. There are so many good CBs in this draft that John Dorsey could pick up one who becomes a starter as late as the fourth round. Which… also makes it much harder to project. However, if it was me, I’d take CB Damontae Kazee from San Diego State with compensatory-third or their fourth round pick if he’s still there.
Inside Linebacker
Although I once write a piece called, “The Chiefs Should Trade Up for ILB Zach Cunningham” but I no longer think he’s the ILB the Chiefs in the first round. I’d prefer to see Reuben Foster is he falls that far. However, the real possibilities for the Chiefs first round pick are: Haasan Reddick while Jarred Davis and Raekwon McMillan could be there in the second. If the Chiefs intend to select an ILB who can actually take Derrick Johnson’s place one day, that player will need to come from the early rounds, if it is to be, in this draft.
Outside Linebacker
You have to imagine that when the season was over both John Dorsey and Andy Reid were sitting in a room together evaluating every player and position. That would include the players who are coming back. Pundits can come to the agreement that a specific team needs a QBOTF but don’t talk much about the EROTF or the “Edge Rusher of the Future.” We know it’s not Tamba Hali. Justin Houston MAY NOT be the answer… and that thought has to have hung in the air inside the evaluation room as Andy and John sat there ruminating. Dee Ford MIGHT BE the answer — but he has no bull rush whatsoever — and that thought coupled with the JH thought or question mark would have hung heavy like the smoke in some James Cagney movie bar room… with no answer forthcoming. I won’t flinch-an-inch if the Chiefs first pick in this draft is an OLB… or an EROTF.
Now, who might that be? This draft is loaded with them but none of them are elite like Von Miller or even Justin Houston. They all have potential… but “sure-things” are not going to be there at #27. So, this OLB could come from the second round or maybe third… like Houston did. Possibilities include: Takkarist McKinley, Tim Williams, Charles Harris, and T.J. Watt in the first round. In the second it could be: Derek Rivers, Jordan Willis, and Tarrell Basham. I’d love to see local talents like Willis or Harris in red and gold next fall. In the third, Tyus Bowser, Carroll Phillips, Devonte Fileds, and Dawuane Smoot should all be available.
The “Bumper” Crop
There’s an unspoken quality to this draft that could affect who will be available later in round one that has to do with players who will jump up into the first round and bump other, higher quality player down the board. John Dorsey has stated already that he only has between 150 and 170 players on this draft board. That would presume he has ruled out certain players in the first round. Let’s say for example, that Dorsey has ruled out Joe Mixon – I’m not saying he has, it’s just an example — but if he’s ruled out Joe Mixon and then Mixon jumps up and gets selected by a team prior to pick #27… then another high-quality player will get bumped down to the Chiefs. I think there are a number of players like that here. All the QBs who are listed in the first round would qualify for that list. So, if Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes II, and Dehone Kizer all go ahead of #27… it expands the list of excellent prospects who will be coming to K.C.
Fueling the Future Firepower
The ten draft picks that John Dorsey has in the 2017 draft appears to be a problem to me. If he stands pat and takes all ten draft picks, the question arises, where will he put them all on a roster this deep? Will half of these draft picks have to be released in August? Even if he keeps them all, will he really be releasing that may good players that already make up one-fifth of his roster? Or… is there another solution? With another draft coming up in 2018, John Dorsey may decide to opt out of drafting a player this year and trade up a bit into the draft next year. Are there other reasons he might do that? Yes. It ensures not only the future of the team in years down the road but it gives him move firepower to move around in next year’s draft… a draft which is reportedly supposed to be loaded with good QBs. However, whether or not it is a QB he selects this year or next, the maneuverability in any draft is like money in the bank… and in this case that translates to access to drafting better players… or the players you’re targeting most. Teams with good rosters have the luxury of pulling off this stunt and I believe that’s right where the Chiefs and Dorsey are at.
A Player You Really, Really, Really, Wish the Chiefs Would Draft
That Player for me would have to be TE Evan Engram. I don’t know how or where he would fit into the Chiefs plans… but he’s someone I’d love to see wearing red and gold on Sundays this year. How about you? Anyone you’re really, really, really wanting?
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