Chiefs: Early Tailgaters and Pat Mahomes is “In Like Flint”

Chiefs: Early Tailgaters and Pat Mahomes is “In Like Flint”

Union Station all dressed to go on Friday nites

Are You ready for Some Arrowhead Football!

I am ready. More than ready. Yesterday was Red Friday and even here in Rockport, Texas, Chiefs fans were out in public adorned in jerseys and hats. Knowing Andy Reid and seeing that he fully appreciates the Tailgate crowd, I can see Big Red coming out and visiting some tailgater’s… passing on a few tips on BBQing and grilling burgers. Ahhh, nothing like the smoke over a jam packed Arrowhead parking lot..

Too, I would expect him to sample at least the ware of one “cook” and grabbing a grilled burger with full dress while he was out making the visit. Who knows, maybe he could choose yours. “I can’t go for that” Noooaooo! (No can do), I can’t go for that!

I am not sure about Andy, but I’ll pass on the waffleburger option.

Some things are earmarked (already) in the book!

About 10 PM Central, the Kansas City Chiefs will be 5-0. Bet on it. I don’t know about the spread however. 11 points is pretty tough to give. 56 is the over and under. I’d take the over because this is a new game and we won’t give up 3 fumbles.

Okay, so here we are again. Indy has an okay defense but lacks the QB since Luck retired. I see KC at home, 42-14 — something like that. One huge advantage exists for Patrick Mahomes and Company: the Colts are missing five players for the upcoming matchup this weekend. It doesn’t bode well for Chris Ballard’s folks. Their defense will be facing “our guys” and I for one, won’t feel sorry for them (remember 2013!).

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are facing a weakened Colts defense as noted by Matt Derrick where he observes that the Colts have five major players out, four of them on defense:

What to Expect

Last week things looked up in pregame but the Lions gave the Chiefs everything and the kitchen sink. Matt Patricia’s team lost on the last drive mastered by “Our Man Pat” who is… “In Like Flint”.

That game saw the Chiefs give the opposing team 2 early scores and then 3 giveaways in the 2nd half. No one wins after doing that! Right? Except the Kansas City Chiefs did win anyway and that is due to the Pat Mahomes factor!

The Colts are a decent football team and they have a pretty good roster thanks to Chris Ballard. “Losing Luck” might best characterize the 2019 Colts. Again, I don’t think that the Chiefs will fail to get a win. I don’t know what Bieniemy did this week with the offense and working on holding on to the ball. I expect teams to mimic what the Lions were able to accomplish attempting to pound the ball out with a fist.

I also expect the Colts to play tough on defense despite missing moving parts. I predict 42-17 — something like that. Of course I put up a similar prediction last week, 38-16 I think, it was and I think the Chiefs (sans 3 giveaways) would have scored 40+ which would have meant that the Lions score would have been reduced by at least 10. Ah well.

What they will do is try to slow down the game speed to prevent the Chiefs gaining control of the ball. They are well aware of how dynamic the Chiefs offense truly is, despite Hill being injured, as well losing Eric Fisher to a groin tear.

Hill and Claiborne

Tyreek Hill practiced all week and that’s a good sign. He looked good in drills but the Chiefs have ruled him out for Sunday Night. The return of Tyreek Hill is imminent but is likely to be after the Broncos game.

Morris Claiborne discussed how he felt about returning to football after the 4 game suspension (use of illegal substances). He is ready to go. He said the team gave him drills to get his legs ready for game speed and viewer stated that he looked ready to go. Andy Reid was cautious about using Claiborne but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Spagnuolo, if given the go ahead by HC Andy Reid, puts Mo in the game for a few snaps to get his feet wet at game speed.

What I will look to see

1. The Defense – Steve Spagnuolo has got to react to missed plays from last week. This means sticking to assignments on the interior against the run and far better linebacker play to stop the opposing team’s breaking into the 2nd level and getting a long gain. If they can do the latter, the run game defense is manageable. What should be the level of defense against the run is preventing a steady march on the ground, compounding the average YPC to 5.3 as it was versus the Lions, and the Chiefs gave up 186 yards on the ground. That is not good but it is not the defect that is most glaring and which gave the Lions a chance to win. That defect, if you will, is due the pass defense which is the oddity about the game. The Chiefs were able to push the Lions to 3rd and long several times but failed to prevent them from gaining a first down in such situations (see my piece called, “Chiefs: Nealy Buzz Cut in Detroit“).

I’m still very much waiting to see the defense gel. I would really like to see CB Charvarius Ward step it up in this game. Mo Claiborne may overtake him as the starter. However, the future is with Ward… getting beyond cutting his NFL baby teeth… and growing in the position. Another player that is far under utilized is Armani Watts. Spagnuolo should be finding ways to get him into the game.

The aerial defense overall has been effective but the Lions game was a downturn in the success of pass defense. The Chiefs had been ranked 9th in efficiency among NFL teams (according to PFF and “The Athletic”) entering the game last Sunday. 

The ToP was Chiefs 26 minutes and Lions 34 minutes. Another reason for the Chiefs coming away with a win being a matter of good fortune and a defense facing the ability of Patrick Mahomes (the PMF = Patrick Mahomes Factor).

2. The Offense – OC Eric Bieniemy’s crew must maintain possession of the ball. The fumble-litis problems must be fixed and should have been fixed this past week. Speed should have been the bigger factor there, but it turned out to be under-utilized and the Lions effectively mounted a pass rush that “Hurried” Mahomes too often.

3. Special Teams — Dave Toub has some missing ingredient in the basics of what you can and cannot do. The Chiefs have been penalized many times in 4 games with stupid penalties both as the receiving team and also the defenders on punts and kickoffs. This needs to get addressed. 

There has been a growing critique of Dave Toub in regard to the lack of meaningful contribution from the Special Teams (S/T) group. The Chiefs have a lot of new players added to S/T’s who committed far to many infractions. They are also missing Tyreek Hill on Punt Returns.

Defense: A Work in Progress 

Different parts have played well at different times. Cohesion is missing. A lot of criticism has been leveled at this player or that player but, this is wrong. A big factor is Clark not getting any sacks. He has pressures but among the Chiefs on the front line, he is double teamed more than 50% of the time. When this happens, the other players have got to come through. This means Derrick Nnadi and Alex Okafor because we know that Chris Jones is having impact plays in every game. We know that Emmanuel Ogbah has also increased his ratings significantly from last year to be ranked high among 43 DEs.

Another two or three games and perhaps with Claiborne in the mix, the defense will begin to make meaningful plays and will achieve the goal of being able to stop opposing offensive drives far more effectively. As I have observed, I believe the defense will end up in the top 15 for 2019. Even if it’s the front 20, that is a huge advantage of being 30th, or worse, in defense ranking.

Andy Reid Basics: Looking towards SNF

I’ll have a complete football weekend: first the Texans game since it is broadcast to almost all of Texas including Rockport… then the Packers v. the Boys. Now, I have special interest here and root for the Pack as my NFC team (it’s been that way since 1967’s finale). This game should be very interesting to see. I am curious if Rodgers can step it up because I don’t think he is himself thus far in 2019

Finally the Chiefs. A good day for football. I will have whet my appetite on early games and feel like I feasted and over ate by the end of the Chiefs game at Arrowhead. The Chiefs will win. Earmark your book!

David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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