Categories: Kansas City ChiefsPaul Pulley

Chiefs: First Quarter Stats and Some Extrapolations

Chiefs: First Quarter Stats

and Some Extrapolations

by Paul Pulley

It seemed the off-season lasted forever this year and now that the regular season is upon us, it’s unreal that it is already one fourth over. I wanted to take a look at how the Kansas City Chiefs as a team — and some of the players — have performed and see what we might expect if trends continue (which we all know they won’t, but what the heck).

The most used metric to place NFL teams in an order of how they compare with every other team is yards. How many yards per game an offense gains, how many yards per game a defense allows the opponent, how many yards per game any given quarterback throws for, how many yards per game a running back rushes for, etc.

The Team Offense

Starting with the Chiefs offense, after 4 games, they are ranked 9th in the league in yards/game, averaging just over 410 yards. Now, if we look at the number of offensive plays ran, the Chiefs rank tied for 19th, averaging 62.25 plays/game. So when we combine those two stats, looking at yards/play, the Chiefs rank 3rd in the NFL at 6.6 yards per play, behind only the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Chiefs passing offense, also ranked 9th, is averaging 297.2 yards/game, while the rushing offense is currently ranked 14th, averaging 113 yards/game. The Chiefs offense is currently tied for 2nd in 3rd down conversions, converting 20 out of 41 tries or 49% and are tied for 1st in fourth down conversions, converting all 3 attempts or 100%.

Kansas City is tied for 1st in sacks allowed, only giving up 5 through 4 games and are 1st in sack yards with 11. Both of these stats are a testament to the play of not only the offensive line, but the escapability of our quarterback, who has demonstrated time and again his ability to avoid the pass rush and make plays on the move.

Now we come to the most important stat of all, points. Through the first quarter of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs are the number one team in the NFL for scoring points, having scored 145 points in the first 4 games, averaging 36.25 points/game.

If this pace were to continue, the Chiefs offense would finish the regular season scoring 580 points, gaining 6564 total yards in the process.

The Team Defense

As we have all heard many of the National pundits and game commentators allude to the Chiefs defense being the worst in the game. The defense is in fact ranked number 32 in yards/game allowed, giving up 451.8 yards per game. The Chiefs defense is ranked 22nd in scrimmage plays, which shows that there are 10 teams that have been on the field for more defensive plays than the Chiefs. Even so, as far as yards per play, the Chiefs defense ranks 30th, allowing the opponent an average of 6.7 yards/play.

It seems that the K.C. defense has been on the field a lot, but they are averaging 30:24 minutes/game which ranks them 14th in the league, barely in the top half.

The Chiefs defense is tied for 12th league wide with 10 sacks.

First in Thirds?

One of the few bright spots on the defense has been their play on 3rd down. The Chiefs have only allowed their opponents to convert 10 – 3rd downs in 42 attempts, ranking them 1st in the league. The caveat to that, is they are ranked 28th on 4th downs, allowing the opponents to succeed 7 out of 8 attempts.

As for points allowed, the Chiefs defense ranks 25th, having allowed 115 points during the first 4 games, an average of 28.8 points. At this rate, the defense would give up 460 points in the regular season, allowing opponents a total of 7,228 yards.

A Look at a Few Individuals

Sammy Watkins, in his first year as a Chief, isn’t quite up to the same level as the other top receivers on the team, but he has still accumulated 176 receiving yards and has one touchdown. Considering that 155 of those came in two games, I think that Watkins production will pick up assuming he stays healthy, but at his current pace, he would finish the regular season with 704 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs primary running back, has rushed for 289 yards through 4 games, which has him ranked 8th most in the league. Hunt has scored 3 rushing touchdowns so far this season. If Hunt maintains this level of production, he would finish the season with 1156 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs. In 2017, Hunt had 1327 yards and 8 TDs.
Tyreek Hill has amassed 364 recieving yards through the first 4 games, ranking him 11th league wide. He has scored 3 touchdowns so far. At this pace, Hill would finish the regular season with 1456 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. In 2017 Hill had 1183 yards and 7 scores.
Travis Kelce, the NFL’s best tight end, has 307 receiving yards and three touchdowns through the first quarter of the season. If he were to continue at this pace, he would finish the regular season with 1228 yards and 12 scores. In 2017, Kelce had 1038 yards and 8 touchdowns.
DE Allen Bailey, along with OLBs Justin Houston and Dee Ford have managed to garner 3 sacks apiece. At this rate they would all finish the regular season in a tie with 12 sacks each.
Ron Parker and Eric Murray are the only two Chiefs with an interception, totaling one each. At this rate, they would each end up with 4 each, giving the team a total of 8 for the season.
Anthony Hitchens leads the team with 35 total tackles for the first 4 games. If Hitchens maintains this pace, he would finish the season with 140 tackles. Last year, with the Dallas Cowboys, was his best year prior to this season and he had 84 tackles.

A QB Who Excels

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes II, is exceeding everyones expectations as a first year starter. Though the first quarter of the season, Mahomes has passed for exactly 1200 yards, averaging 300 yards per game. Mahomes is 1st in the league with 14 touchdowns and is tied with Drew Brees with a league best zero interceptions.

While his completion percentage is a very respectable 65.2%, it only ranks 19th best among starting QBs. Mahomes has only been sacked 5 times, tied for 1st with starting QBs that have played all 4 games, but has given up the fewest sack yards with 11.

Patrick Mahomes has attempted 138 passes or 34.5 attempts/game, ranking him 16th in the league for attempts. His quarterback rating of 126.5 rates him behind only Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams.

Mahomes also has 1 rushing TD, so if this pace continues for the rest of the regular season, Mahomes would finish with 4800 passing yards, 4 rushing TDs to go along with a NFL record 56 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions.

A quick note: if you noticed the discrepancy between the team passing yards and Mahomes passing yards, the difference is that sack yards are subtracted from team stats.

I think this all seems doable, don’t you?

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