Chiefs Futures: A Look at the Current DL & the 2023 Draft

David Bell

Last week I published an article about the current OTs, looking at the players and who would return, what the most significant exposures were, and also taking a preliminary look at potential draft picks in 2023. This week, I’ll look at the trenches on the defensive side of the ball this week.

The Defensive Front vs. Chargers – Gavin Liddell Photo

The Defensive Coaching Staff

First up, the defensive coaching staff. DC Steve Spagnuolo and his staff are doing the work. Those coaches proving the close in work are: DL Coach Joe Cullen, LB coaches Brendan Daly and Ken Flajole, Safety Coach Donald D’Alesio, and CB coach Dave Merritt. I may be leaving out other coaches, but I thought special recognition needs to be directed to each of these men. What we see unfold as the season progresses is the continuing success from the Defensive Front. I like Joe Cullen’s presence. Here is his pre-game Presser before facing the Chargers:

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Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo

Spags on the sideline – Chiefs Photo credit

Cullen’s ending statement can’t go without credit being given to Dave Merritt, because of working a blitz from the edge, especially using L’Jarius Sneed. That is made possible because of the DL. Setting the table with specifically designed blitzes from the secondary, which is used in every game, has pressured and sacked the opposing QB numerous times.

That is a benefit to the defensive unit as a whole, but is made possible by the Front Four doing their jobs and exerting attention, getting pressure along the DL. Credit for packaging and implementing the defenses goes to our Defensive Coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo. To take that a step further, the reason has performed well as a unit. Spags has been able to make adjustments on the fly as well, but it is noticeable as the flow of the game moves from the first half to the second.

Thinking About It

The not-perfect and not-top-10 defense has had 10 sacks in the past two games. They’ve upped their total to 32.

This says a lot… ranking 4th in the NFL right now in Sacks.

Credit the players for executing from the position and also give credit to Joe Cullen and Steve Spagnuolo with setting up the scheme and the play assignments, especially in the second half. Solid adjustments at half time.

The Chiefs Linebacking Duo of Nick Bolton and Willie Gay has become a force of significance. Versus the Chargers, they wreaked havoc, and that is against a very good LAC Offense: Chiefs LBs had 25 combined tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFL, and a game ending INT.

The Magic Number Line: 20 Points

In three games, the Chiefs held the opponent to 21-points or less, and in weeks nine and ten, they held the opponent to 17 points(my old magic number, which I adjusted to 20 three years ago). The idea of the “20-Point Line” is that if the Chiefs held their opponent to that number, the offense should be able to score enough points to win the game. In 2022, the Chiefs did that but still lost the game, 17-20, to the Indianapolis Colts. That number remains valid, however. Game after game, the Chiefs win almost all games if the opponent is held to 20 points or less. Sure, this season, the Chiefs lost the Indy Game by the failure of the offense to score more than 27.

The defense allowed 27 points against one of the top offensive powers in the AFC, but held them at the magic number of 27. Any time the Chiefs defense holds an opponent to 27 points or under, the Chiefs win those games 95% of the time.

Sure, it’s over the magic number of 20 (by 7 points) but the Chiefs are putting 2 CBs, rookie starter Trent McDuffie opposite 3rd year man, L’Jarius Sneed. Both Josh Williams and Jaylen Watson are swapping in and out based on the snap sequence. The duo of Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson will be veterans by week 15. Nazeeh Johnson is also being worked in. At safety, Bryan Cook plays well in the safety trio along with veterans Reid and Thornhill. George Karlaftis is are rookies, too.

It’s almost magic and shows us all why the Chiefs traded Rashad Fenton. I am convinced the secondary is coming together well and aiding the defense in it’s ascending trajectory.

That same distinction is applied to the game vs. the Buffalo Bills, which KC lost by 24-27. Two problems can be noted about this particular game. The first observation is that the offense didn’t score their average PPG, which remains 30-Plus. The Second observation is that the defense allowed 7 points above the magic number of 20.

Onward and Upward: the 27-Point Line

Of the games played, the Chiefs have held their opponent to 27 points or less in 7 of the 9 games played, including the two games the Chiefs lost. When the score broached the 27-point Line by their opponent, the Chiefs outscored their opponents and won those two games. Here is the stat that shows why 27 points is a crucial indicator. In the Andy Reid Era with Patrick Mahomes at QB, the Chief’s record when the 27-Point Line is used for all such games, the Chiefs are 48-3. That’s an outstanding statistic. But, of course, the credit goes to the offense for having the power and prowess to score enough points to win those games.

The Interior Defensive Line (IDL)

Chris Jones, DT — we all know how well Chris Jones plays as a DT for the Chiefs, both against the run and in the pass rush. He is an outstanding player and will obtain a Pro Bowl nod in 2022. He has a shot at being named the Defensive Player of the Year as well.

CJ – Crushing Force – Gavin Liddell Photo

Khalen Saunders, DT— The big surprise for me this year is the apparent emergence of Saunders as a playmaker from the DT position. It is great to see this unfolding. This includes not just stopping the run but pressuring the QB, too. Saunders has two sacks to his ledger in 2023, which is essential. His ability to pressure the QB is of greater import, at least as I see it. Saunders is powerful and athletic enough to attack opposing blockers and force the pocket back into the quarterback’s lap.

Mike Danna, DE — is having his best year so far. Against the Chargers Danna had 4 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 tackles for a loss (TFLs), and 2 QB Hits. Danna also does a good job of limiting the run aound his end.

The Book End Edge Rushers

Frank Clark, Edge– Clark had his best game of 2022 in week 7, which was followed by the Bye Week and a two-game suspension. Clark had a very good game against the Chargers. He is playing nearly every down, and played on 80% of the snaps vs the Chargers. He plays with vigor that has been missing for two long.

Carlos Dunlap, Edge — I really like the contribution of Dunlap — he wants to return in 2023, and I second that notion.

Dunlap, Danna & Jones – Danna makes the play – Steve Sanders photo

George Karlaftis, Edge– GK is playing the game like a monster. The only thing missing is the accumulated sacks. Otherwise, Karlaftis is notching up QB pressures and batted passes and is in the lead for the latter category.

These DL players are having a great effect on the opposing QBs.

The Cullen Effect

Chris Jones is having a monster year. No doubt about it. He now has 10 sacks from the interior. Both Jones and Nnadi are versatile players for the 1-tech and 3-tech roles. Khalen Saunders is playing well this year in his roles.

Danna is Set – Andrew Maher Photo Sunday Nite in LA

The Fusion Defensive Line (FDL)

The Fusion DL is now a functionally sound scheme that has come about because Joe Cullen came to town. The players bought into his scheme and rotations. It’s working. So, I have given it a name: the FDL. They play together and… off of each other. They run stunts, and CJ is versatile enough to play anywhere along gthe DL as well as moving out to the edge. Spags can then mix, match and work ploys — Stunts — from various roles for different snaps. It is not a perfect Front Four, but has a great effect as a unit.

The Future?

The DL won’t be static. I foresee GM Brett Veach acquiring a significant talent for the Edge or the Interior this coming offseason. I suspect that will happen if FAs are available who fit the Chiefs persona. What I think they will do the most is find two DL players in the draft as well.

It’s looking more and more likely that the Chiefs will be one of the last two teams to make selections in 2023’s draft. I don’t see Saunders, Danna, or Nnadi as starters, except in the interim. They are, as I view them, role players or DL depth. Keep in mind CJ is also coming up on his contract year, so the draft will be an important consideration.

The 2023 Draft

Because I know that it takes time to develop an Edge player, I want to cover that group first. Former GM John Dorsey said that it takes 4 years to develop such a player. If we used GK as an example, he sprouted in training camp and has matured from that point. I like what I see, but in a similar manner that Brett Veach took with the LBs two years in a row (Gay and Bolton), I can see him using the same approach for drafting edge players. In 2023, the top 2 DE/Edge players are Will Anderson (Alabama) and Myles Murphy (Clemson). They will be long gone by the time KC makes a selection, and trading up would be too expensive. I frequently see Isaiah Foskey (ND) discussed as a late first-round pick, and that would be within range of the Chiefs making that selection.

From KCBudMan (DrafTek)

KCBudman — analyst for DrafTek — lists the following four players for the edge, players the Chiefs could reach in the draft. He observes that one thing is clear, [Clark] Hunt has forbidden Veach from trading out of the first round. Why? Because the 2023 draft is at Union Station. That makes perfect sense.

Isaiah Foskey – ND – Pro Football Network

Isaiah Foskey – Edge (ND): Foskey is a 6’5″-265 LB. I like his length and size, and he is very athletic — a tough customer. Foskey has been a player I have eyed for the past 3 months. If I had to make a wish, it would be for Veach to trade up and select Foskey, because I think it will be necessary.

Army’s Andre Carter makes PFF preseason All-American team

Andre Carter – Edge (Army): Carter would be a good choice. He is 6’6″-250 LB. Carter might be a great fit for the Chiefs, but I like Foskey more. I need to study all players listed here and more.

Zack Harrison – OSU – 247 Sports

Zach Harrison – Edge (OSU): Laddie likes Harrison, who is 6’6″-272 LB. Harrison is not a round-one pick, but could be had in round 2.

Nolan Smith – Georgia – Online Athens

Nolan Smith – Edge (Georgia): Smith is 6’3″-235 LB. For me, he is too light in the loafers for the role. He has great speed, but it seems to me he lacks length and weight.

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I have not dug into the 1-3-5 Technique IDL. With CJ coming up to a new contract, this has got to be a target draft pick. More on that after the season ends. Hopefully with a Lombardi in hand.

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David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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