Chiefs: Hello, Good “Bye”

Chiefs: Hello, Good “Bye” – the Kansas City Chiefs season has already been a Magical Mystery Tour of sorts. Opening the season with 4 straight wins… then, suffering 3-out-4 losses, the season has had it’s challenges, not the least of which has been the high volume of starters out with injuries. Now, the Chiefs remaining schedule looks promising with only one team in the remaining 7 games with a winning record (the New England Patriots) and… with a game in Nashville vs the Titans this Sunday at noon and… then a game in Mexico City the following weekend on Monday night against the Chargers… the Chiefs path to a much needed mid-season week of rest, is like… Hello Good “Bye.”

The first question on so many Chiefs fans minds is: will Patrick Mahomes start this coming Sunday? Pete Sweeney, of ArrowheadPride, says he’s 95% sure Mahomes is starting vs the Titans. Craig Stout, also from AP, says he thinks PMII will start this Sunday as well.

That’s great news for the eternal optimists of the world. I consider myself a realist which means I like to be an optimist… most of the time… but am also a pessimist when it comes to counting on the Chiefs. In other words, I don’t count my Chiefs chickens before they’ve hatched. So, what does that mean for this weekend? It means that one way or the other, the Chiefs will field a team that will be superior to the Titans team… even if Matt Moore is the starter.

There are other reasons to feel positive about the Chiefs right now… beginning with their defense. Sweeney has also predicted this week that the Chiefs Defense will end up as a top 7-to-10 ranked defense based on points allowed. Is there any reason to think that could happen? Well, to begin with, the Chiefs won’t be facing an offense as good as the best offenses they’ve face so far this year in any of their remaining games… even the Pats. Some of the defenses are very good like the Bears, Pats and Broncos. However, there is nothing that is awe (or fear) inspiring about any of the offenses and nothing that jumps out about the defenses that makes you think Andy Reid and his high powered offense can’t manhandle.

The big challenge right now is… making it to the Bye week without any further injuries. You can never tell when the injury bug will jump up and bite you but the Chiefs are hoping to be back at full strength by the time the Bye says goodbye… now that will be a Good Bye.

Once the Bye Week is over, the Chiefs schedule looks like this. First let’s look at their Opponent’s Offense vs the Chiefs Defense:

Next, let’s look at their Opponent’s Defense vs the Chiefs Offense:

What jumps out first is that the Chiefs have a much different defense now than they did just a month ago. By sitting Frank Clark and Chris Jones… and now Alex Okafor… they had other players step up and not only fill in admirably, but play better than their starting counterparts.

It’s confounding when you think back to St. Joe and the way Frank Clark was dominating Eric Fisher… or even how Juan Thornhill was getting an INT almost daily. However… let’s not forget what “practice” means and who better to re-teach us that lesson than Allen Iverson:

I recognize that HC Andy Reid likes his players to go full speed in practice but one should never mistake, practice, for game-speed and game-experience.

What stands out about the Chiefs remaining schedule is that there is still a very good chance they can lock up the AFC Conference Home Field advantage. We’ve heard a lot about the weak schedule the Patriots have been gifted with to begin the year but they lost on Sunday to the Ravens and over the next three weeks will play the Eagles, Cowboys, and Texans prior to the time they host the Chiefs. It’s entirely possible that the Pats lose one of those game while the Chiefs beat their next two opponents and then take a 13 day Bye into Foxboro where they could certainly beat New England to take control of the Conference. That’s what I’m looking for as the Chiefs move to full strength while their defense gets better and better.

Team Positives

Some of the team positives include:

Tyreek Hill – Hill is not only back at full capacity but is better than ever. There are those online now arguing that Hill is a Top 5 wideout and I can’t disagree with them. When the ball is thrown his way, there’s no such thing as a 50/50 ball… it’s more like 80/20 that he’ll catch it.

Travis Kelce – Kelce has been criticized this year but most of that is because he’s not producing at a rate that matches his last year of service. Travis had 1,336 receiving yards in 2018 and is on pace for 1,184 receiving yards this year. What many fans forget is that 1,184 yards would be his 2nd best season of his career so far. Let’s not get carried away thinking Kelce must be better and better each year. He’s amaze-balls. Please don’t forget that.

Andy Reid – Reid may be a worry at times when he gets the lead in a game and goes into “prevent-offense” mode, but he is one of the greatest play designers and play callers ever:

Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes was a “full participant” in practice on Wednesday. Let me repeat: Mahomes was a “full participant” in practice on Wednesday. That can only mean one thing: he might play Sunday. Any way you look at it, the Chiefs aren’t going to jeopardize their “One Precious Ring” by throwing him into the fiery pits of Mordor any time earlier than necessary. Just think what happens to the organization if they risk it all… and then lose? The City, Chiefs Kingdom, the League, me, and your grandmother… would all… never forgive them. Sweeney might think Patty is playing this week but I have my doubts and believe in Andy Reid’s ability to shape a backup QB in short order. Plus, there’s this from Wednesday:

Sammy Watkins – Watkins hasn’t been the player we’d hoped he would be after being signed last offseason… but… when he is healthy and on the field, he’s a genuine threat. And (and I hate beginning a sentence with “and”)… and… he’s healthy right now.

Eric Fisher – Fish is not far off from returning. With the addition of Martinas Rankin at Left Guard, when Fisher does returns, the OL will be stronger than it’s been all season long.

Kendall Fuller – the CBs have improved as the result of “addition by subtraction.” With Fuller being injured, we found out that Rashad Fenton is a good corner. Now that Fuller is returning to action, it will be a positive if Fenton forces Spagnuolo to split time between he and Fuller.

Diversity of the DL – Now that players are returning to the Defensive Line, and the players who have replaced those players have shown they’re pretty darn good… coaches Brendan Daley and Steve Spagnuolo have the perfect combination of inside-outside, 0-1-2-3-4-5 tech, 3-4/4-3, versatility. Let the fun begin.

Safety Strength – the days of Safety woes in 2018 are long past. Enjoy it. The Chiefs are deep there!

Looking towards the game against the Titans is a singular focus: stop their running game, and you win the contest. Derrick Henry is 10th in the league in rushing with 644 yards. If you’re like me, you have images of Henry plowing his way through the Chiefs dreams with a January 2018 playoff victory 22-to-21 in Arrowhead. That was Alex Smith’s last game with the Kansas City Chiefs but a lot has changed since then and a lot has changed in the past three weeks. When the Chiefs face Minnesota last week they were facing the #1 RB in the league and basically shut him down (71 yards). The difference? Dalvin Cook is 5-10, 210 while Derrick Henry is 6-foot-3 and 247, and a load and a half. If the Chiefs defense can hold Henry down to less than 100 yards, they should win going away. If they can do that, the Chiefs will likely be able to say, “Hello, Hello, I don’t know why you say Hello, I say Good Bye.”

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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