Chiefs Higher Priority: Offensive Line or Weapons? – By James S. McGregor – It has been just over a week since our Kansas City Chiefs fell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. It was certainly a difficult week for many of us (and it might have felt like two weeks or more). From the Super Bowl disaster to the seemingly constant coverage and sports talk surrounding the Bucs celebration and negativity aimed at Chiefs Kingdom, to the losses of Marty Schottenheimer and Terez Paylor, to the Arctic blast many of us have had to endure; it often feels like we should step away from football for awhile and decompress. However, I would like to try to move us all forward somewhat by beginning to look toward the future. Specifically, let’s take a look at priorities and what we believe should be addressed as we go into another offseason. Today, I will make a case for both the offensive line and the composite of offensive weapons — WR/TE/RB – and perhaps wrap up with some thoughts regarding what to look forward to as the Chiefs begin to prepare for what some are already billing as the “Take it Back” tour.
The Weapons
The Chiefs are famous all around the NFL for their offensive prowess, which has reached utterly febrile heights since the emergence of Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. However, arguably part of what makes the offense run so efficiently is the perfect fit of Mahomes with the general style of the offense, the fantastic mind and leadership of Andy Reid, and the absolute dynamism of the various offensive weapons. Many talking heads have even argued that Mahomes would be a much lesser talent and a far less successful QB without the likes of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins (when healthy), Mecole Hardman, etc. “Mahomes is only great because of the amazing receivers,” they say. I absolutely will not go that far, as I believe that argument to be categorically flawed.
However, we can still make a genuinely cogent case for the importance of quality skill position players. The dynamic — and really fast — players the Chiefs have on offense consistently make the work of opposing defensive coordinators and players significantly more difficult. For three full seasons now teams across the league have been trying to find a way to slow them (and their production) down enough to give themselves a chance to win (something that has not happened against the Chiefs much).
This is the “pick your poison” argument. If you double-cover Hill, Kelce will find an opening. If you blitz, Hill (or someone else) will beat his 1-on-1 opponent and get open quickly enough for Mahomes to get the ball to him (especially when combined with how good Mahomes is against the blitz). Only in extremely rare instances has a defense been able to neutralize the Chiefs weapons enough to achieve victory, and this has required a combination of many things going their way:
- effective pass rush and consistent QB pressure with only four rushers
- quality coverage both from the linebacking core (against Kelce, RBs) and the secondary
- timely turnovers and penalties
- key injuries suffered by the Chiefs offense.
Essentially, you need a “perfect storm” in order to shut down the Chiefs playmakers and overall offensive production.
Chiefs General Manager Brett Veach appears to understand and agree with this; it is apparent in how he has drafted players and signed free agents in the last two years. He clearly has prioritized surrounding Mahomes with high value skill players. The most obvious example is how he used the Chiefs’ first draft pick in both the 2019 and 2020 drafts to obtain dynamic skill position players (Mecole Hardman and Clyde Edwards-Helaire). While one could attest that these two players have yet to live up to their full potential/expectation, the idea remains that Veach wants Mahomes to have plenty of solid options around him to get the ball to.
The Offensive Line
Having an abundance of fast and dynamic playmakers surrounding Mahomes is certainly of great value and something we should never belie. On the other hand, we must take the time to caveat this value with a warning. As good as the Chiefs receivers are at moving around the field at a high rate of speed, as good as Hill and Hardman are at racing down the field past slower defenders, as good as Kelce is at consistently finding a soft spot in coverage, and as good as Mahomes is at scrambling around and making something special happen when a play breaks down; even a perennial MVP-caliber QB cannot and should not always be expected to overcome a porous offensive line.
Outlier or Blueprint?
Now, before we get heated again, we should keep things in perspective regarding what happened in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs OL was without its best four players, and five of its best eight. Three of the backups who played were forced to shift and play different positions, out of their element. Plus, they were being asked to protect against one of the best four-man pass rush teams in the league, and with Mahomes clearly playing hurt and scrambling around with an operable turf toe injury. In many ways, that game against the Bucs should be considered an outlier, not a “blueprint” on how to beat the Chiefs.
There are at least four points that can be made for the need to prioritize the line over skill positions.
First: going back to that Bucs game, just try to imagine what the outcome would have been if the starting QBs had switched teams just before the game – Tom Brady starting for the Chiefs and Mahomes starting for the Bucs. The final score was already disastrous as it went, but in this scenario I attest that it would have been far worse. Mahomes, taking snaps behind one of the best lines in the league (and with a set of skill players that actually rivals those of the Chiefs) and not having to constantly run around for his life would have been able to find openings and move the ball downfield at will. On the other side, an aging and immobile Brady, behind that Chiefs line, frankly might not have survived the entire game. As mobile as Mahomes is, he was pressured on 29 of 52 dropbacks, setting a new all-time NFL record. He was also forced to scramble behind the line of scrimmage for 497 total yards on pass plays. Meanwhile, Brady was pressured all of four times (yes, that’s for the entire game).
The next two points go somewhat together: as a more effective OL would open up so much more for the Chiefs offense – both in the run and pass games. Having lineman who can get off the ball quickly and move defenders would promote a more effective run game than we’ve observed over the past two seasons (and part of 2018 following the loss of Kareem Hunt). This would also keep opposing secondaries and linebackers honest and lead to more production in the pass game. Additionally, with more consistent and effective pass protection, one might venture that Mahomes would then more consistently be granted more time to work through his progressions, receivers would have more time to get open; and Mahomes with his MVP-caliber arm talent, decision-making and precision could get the ball to even mediocre receivers.
Finally: I feel obligated to put forth a warning about the long-term health of Mahomes. He is still very young and capable of making plays happen when they break down, but do we really want to see our MVP running around for his life and risking so much when he is 30, 35 or 40? Granted, the injuries he has dealt with to this point have been mostly either freak occurrences or the result of a teammate stepping on his ankle/foot (thank you Cam Erving); and he has demonstrated that he is hyper-aware when scrambling and smart to avoid potentially catastrophic hits and injury. However, how long can/should we rely upon that? Should we honestly expect him to play like this for his entire career?
I would argue that a team that has just awarded its QB with the greatest contract in North American sports history should make the protection of that asset of the utmost importance. Look to the Patriots dynasty as an example of how this approach has produced success. Brady has never been as mobile or dynamic outside the pocket as Mahomes, but he has in large part been able to sustain such a high level of play because he has been — for the most part — healthy, because his team prioritized the OL, and because he has been brilliant at making pre-snap reads, setting protections and getting the ball out of his hand lightning fast.
If the Chiefs front office prioritizes protecting Mahomes with the best OL possible, he should be able to tear apart opposing defenses consistently for the next 10-15 (maybe more?) years.
Final Thoughts: What to Look For
I think it is absolutely fair to make a strong case either way here, and I don’t think there is really a “wrong” answer; and again we seriously should not read too much into what happened in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are still an organization that is built to win… and for years to come. However, if I have to offer an opinion, I would like to see Veach and his team up the ante on the OL. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the OL for next year – Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Lucas Niang, and others. There are also some questions as to certain skill position players potentially returning or moving on (though this might be another slow year for free agency due to a significantly reduced salary cap). Regardless, I believe wholeheartedly that the Chiefs will need to take a serious look and figure out who will be available and how they can bring in players via free agency and/or the draft to bolster what is currently a shaky line. This process has likely already begun, so let’s all be patient (please try)… and stay tuned!
James S. McGregor — ArrowheadOne
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