Chiefs Host Bills, AFC Championship Preview: OPEN THREAD

Chiefs Host Bills, AFC Championship Preview: OPEN THREAD – by Laddie Morse — The Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Lamar Hunt Trophy Game for a record, third time in a row, and the Buffalo Bills have arrived as the primary suspects on their guest list. The New England Patriots came to town two years ago for this game coming away with a win, then went on to win Super Bowl LIII against he Los Angeles Rams. Last year, the Chiefs broke through, winning their first ever Lamar Hunt trophy — named after their founder — defeating the Tennessee Titans in the process. The Chiefs went on to win Super Bowl LIV in dramatic fashion.

The Buffalo Bills are making their first appearance in the AFC Championship game since January of 1994 right before the Bills lost their fourth straight Super Bowl in a row. It used to be a joke mong children who’d ask: “Do you know what Bills stands for? Then say, Boy, I Love Losing Superbowls.”

In this game may come down to whether or not the Chiefs can stop the Bills QB, Josh Allen… on the ground. Allen has average 35 yards per game on the ground over his three year career and had 42 yards rushing in the first Chiefs/Bills game back in week 6. Allen’s rocket arm and completion percentage has improved over the past three seasons. So has his ability to run and slide in the pocket. It’s that maneuverability that helps make him a threat. Something the Chiefs will have to plan for if their going to beat these Bills.

Now, the question is: can the Bills make up the difference in total yards in this game, since their first one when the Chiefs had 466 to the Bills 206? If the Chiefs get a lead early, this game will in all likelihood be a blowout for K.C..

Procedural Kicking Issues

On Thursday in a post practice media interview, Chiefs Special Teams Coach, Dave Toub, said the problems they had in the game against the Browns were, “procedural issues.” Then Toub spelled it out saying — and I paraphrase — that long snapper, James Winchester, can snap the ball to the holder (Tommy Townsend), but knows exactly how many rotations there will be so that Townsend can place the ball with the threads of the ball facing forward but in the case of the Browns game the threads were facing backwards and although Townsend attempted to rotate the threads before Harrison Butker kicked it, he could get the threads to face away from him and the ball sailed on him. Toub indicated that they had taken care of that issue. You may have heard me being critical of the Chiefs kicking game in recent comments I’ve made, but we’ll have ot wait and see if the place kicking team of Winchester-Townsend-Butker can return to serving as a consistently effective trio. We certainly hope that the Chiefs game today is not so close that a FG or an extra point will be depended upon to be the difference.

“He Can Dig It, She Can Dig It, We Can Dig It”

This game may come down to: how well the Chiefs are able to clamp down on Bills WR Stefon Diggs. Notice, I didn’t say, “Stop Diggs”… because he was the best WR in the NFL this season in catches (127) and yards receiving (1,535), so I’m not sure you can actually “Stop” him. If you recall, a couple of years ago, in January of 2019, Bill Belichick decided to take away the Chiefs top two threats in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill (who had 23 and 42 yards receiving, respectively) and by so doing rendered the Chiefs offense, mostly inept (or, far less potent). I’d be surprised if Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo didn’t have a similar game strategy in place here, only he just has to take one player away from the Bills to beat them: Diggs. If K.C. can slow down Diggs in a major way… and… take away the legs of Josh Allen, they should be able to beat Buffalo easily.

Seven AFC Teams entered the AFC Conference tourney including:

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Tennessee Titans
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Cleveland Browns
7. Indianapolis Colts

However, only the #1 Chiefs and the #2 Bills remain in the AFC, teams which face off today for the Lamar Hunt Trophy. Here’s a look at the whole NFL Super Bowl LV Brackets and results so far:

Pundit’s Predictions:

PFT Michael David Smith: Chiefs 35, Bills 24.

PFT Mike Florio: Chiefs 31, Bills 27.

CBS Cody Benjamin: Bills win.

CBS Pete Prisco: Chiefs 31, Bills 30

Bleacher Report Kristopher Knox: Bills 28, Chiefs 27

Bleeding Green Staff: 5 Pick K.C. and 4 Pick Buffalo

The Athletic, Matthew Fairburn: Bills 34, Chiefs 27

The Athletic, Nate Taylor: Chiefs 34, Bills 31

The Athletic: Bo Wulf: The Bills

The Athletic: Jake Ciely: The Chiefs

The Athletic: Michael-Shawn Dugar: The Chiefs

The Athletic: Ethan Douglas: The Chiefs

The Athletic: Vic Tafur: The Chiefs

Athlon Sports, Rob Doster: Chiefs 27, Bills 20

Athlon Sports, Bryan Fischer: Chiefs 33, Bills 24

Athlon Sports, Ben Weinrib: Chiefs 34, Bills 27

NFL.com, Cynthia Frelund: Chiefs 30, Bills 25

NFL.com, Andrew Hawkins: Chiefs 33, Bills 24

NFL.com, Gregg Rosenthal: Chiefs 31, Bills 27

Here’s what ex-Chiefs Brian Baldinger had to say about today game:

“It’s very difficult to prepare a Chiefs’ defense that attacks in a variety ways with so many chess pieces. Despite the Chiefs blitzing on 38.9 percent of drop backs this season, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit will blitz Josh Allen on more than 50 percent of his pass attempts Sunday night, and it’ll be effective doing it and hold Allen to a 90.0 passer rating or less. The Chiefs’ D had success with this same approach in Week 6, and although that game has little bearing on this Championship Sunday matchup, it’s a component that will limit Allen and the dynamic passing attack to under 200 yards.” –Brian Baldinger

ArrowheadOne Writer’s Predictions:

• David Bell: Chiefs 31, Bills 17 – The Bills cannot run the ball with any true effectiveness. Expect two Chiefs, RB’s CEH and Darrel Williams, to have big games, as does Kelce.
• Alan Haupt: Chiefs 33, Bills 20 – Chiefs prove their entire season’s mission was focused on the playoffs and #runitback on their way to another Super Bowl Championship.
• Ransom Hawthorne: Chiefs 38, Bills 31 – Expect a short game with lots of offense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire comes back with a vengeance and Chiefs score on six of eight drives. Bills fall short, scoring just five times after the Chiefs defense makes a crucial 4th down stop. Ultimately, the Chiefs outplay the Bills on Offense and out scheme them on Defense.
• Dean Dahlquist: Chiefs, 38 Bills 17 – A healthy K.C. team comes out firing on all cylinders while Spags D “do what we do” and limits Bills offense. In big games all year, Chiefs were focused and dominated early only to let others back in. I trust coaches will have team motivated and adjust to what needs to be done.
• James McGregor: Chiefs 34, Bills 24
• John Lovelace: Chiefs 29, Bills 24
• John Cooney: Bills 35, Chiefs 29 – Yep, I’m not going to be a popular guy.
• Michael Travis Rose: Right of Last Refusal – I jinxed the Chiefs earlier with my predictions, so this is the best I got: Superstition and past poor choices, ended my Predictions Career earlier this season.
• Laddie Morse: Chiefs 34, Bills 21– Chiefs put it all together and perform a Sunday Smackdown on the Bills.

Gash or Crash: 2 Who Must Win & They’re In

Bills – QB Josh Allen and Their DL

Allen must have the best game of his life and not crumble under pressure, but he must not try to win it all himself. He must handle the Chiefs blitz and show that he can hit all of his receiving options, and not just Stefon Diggs. If the Bills are going to have any hope of moving on, they must stop the Chiefs rushing attack and, as funny as it sounds, force the Chiefs into a passing game, to win it. IOW, there’s not way to beat a two-dimensional (running and passing) Chiefs team. The Bills have enough excellent players in their defensive backfield to handle most aerial situations the Chiefs present. However, if the Chiefs RBs are allowed to run free and PM is able use play action effectively, it’s highly likely, game over. Both the Bills and the Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry but since K.C. has a better group of RBs, there’s a bonus onus upon the Bills DL, to bring this one home.

Chiefs – RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire and WR Sammy Watkins

CEH had 161 yards rushing in Week 6 when the Chiefs last played the Bills and he has to be able to have a similar game to help open up the other aspects of the offense. If CEH can help move the chains early and late the Chiefs should be on their way to SB LV. If the Bills attempts to limit Hill and Kelce are successful, then someone else must step up. If Watkins is 100% and available for this one, he’s the man. Watkins has over 92 yards receiving per game in five playoff games for the Chiefs, so we know Sammy has playoff DNA coursing through his veins. Let’s hope he’s healthy enough to make it happen like he did vs the Titans in the AFC Championship game a year ago when he made a grown man cry with his long TD reception that got the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 50 years. BTW, I do know this grown man personally.

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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