The most popular take on this game is that the Chiefs win going away, and why not? K.C. has won the last 11 straight games against the Broncos and the Broncos don’t have the look of a big time winner this year at 6-and-5.
If you’re doing the math, which I am, the Chiefs have, in the past eleven (11) games, beaten Denver by the combined score of 323-to-180. Or, an average of 29.3 PPG o 16.3 PPG.
Also, we all know that Andy Reid is bullish to face coming off the Bye Week. He’s 19-and-3, which is a .863 winning percentage. If you know about winning percentages, then you know that’s better than just “good,” it’s greatness. Reid has a normal winning percentage of .702 (which is very very good) since he’s been with the Chiefs and most any kind of winning percentage over .500 is considered a success.
The problem with considering all that — for this game tonight — is, none of it matters at all. What happens tonight will be based upon how each team has prepared and is ready to take on their opponent. As well as the health of each team. So, let’s take a look at the Broncos Offense first.
Craig Stout at ArrowheadPride has shared this about the Denver OL:
Broncos offensive line is pretty beat up right now.
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who Denver signed in the offseason, won the starting job from Drew Lock — not a huge surprise –after training camp and has generally had a poor year overall. ESPN ranks him as the 28th best QB after week eleven (11), in fact, he was ranked 29th last week. He has 2,518 passing yards this year which places him at 18th in that category. Last year Bridgewater rushed for 279 yards while serving as the Panthers full time QB, but only has 79 yards rushing this year, which has him down from 18.6 YPG rushing to 7.1 YPG rushing. I can only imagine that Broncos HC Vic Fangio and their OC Pat Shurmur, want Bridgewater to be a pocket passer. That won’t work against the Chiefs defense so I’d expect to see some plays that are specifically designed as RPOs or plays that have Bridgewater as the primary rusher. Why? Because, the Broncos are going to be without their primary ground weapon this week:
The Broncos have had a very good defense for many years now, even going back to prior to the time Peyton Manning decided to land there. This year, the Broncos have the 8th best defense vs the pass, in terms of passing yards allowed. They are also 8th vs the run allowing an average of 106 YPG rushing. That could be problematic for K.C. as Clyde Edwards-Helaire may not be ready to go:
Although CEH missed Friday’s practice because of the stomach flu, they expect him to be ready to go tonight. If not, the Chiefs will not have their best RB to go against the Broncs vaunted defense. Assuming CEH is ready for tonight’s game, the Chiefs could also be ready to use him more in the passing game, which is what we had all hoped for when he first came out of LSU:
I can hardly recall a year when the Chiefs offense was more frustrating to watch than this year’s offense. I do recall creating several graphs showing Matt Cassel’s up and down roller coaster ratings and he could never get on a consistent roll… ever. However, this year is even more frustrating because the expectations are so high. Here’s a look at a graph showing the Chiefs Points Scored with wins in Green, their losses in Red and the total points they scored in each game:
It’s not enough to say that we dont know what we can count on when it comes to the Chiefs offense. Although they put up 41 points against the Raiders, the Chiefs offense has only put up an average of 13.75 points per game in four of their past five games (not counting the Raiders game). Not good. Not good at all. Even more disturbing is… we just don’t know what to count on with this offense. Earlier in the year, the K.C. offense put up 24 and 35 points in game which they lost. It’s baffling. Perhaps a look at the defense will be more revealing.
So, let’s take a look at the same graph of the Chiefs Points Allowed with their losses in Red and their wins in Green:
One pattern does emerge for the Chiefs defense and that is their improvement over the past month or more. If you ignore the Titans game, which is easy to do (more on that in a moment), the Chiefs defense has allowed an average of twelve (12) points per game over their past five wins. The New England Patriots have been the best defense for the whole 2021 season, in terms of points allowed per game, with 14.8. So, you can see just how good the Chiefs defense has been over the past month-plus.
In case you’re wondering how many points per game the best NFL defenses have given up… ever…
In a recent conversation with David Bell, he reminded me that the Tennessee Titans no longer have RB Derrick Henry. So, in the event the Chiefs face them again in the playoffs, the Chiefs defense should be able to handle them with ease. I’m not so sure the Chiefs current defense couldn’t handle the Titans with Derrick Henry, especially the way they’re playing right now.
Let’s not forget that prior to their last five wins, the Chiefs defense was historically bad. So, while I’m expecting them to continue to get better and better, I do so with that caveat.
Game Day Weather
The temperature swing for today’s festivities will be 18° degrees and start out with a great tailgating temp of 63° then end up the evening at 45° degrees or lower. The local news says we may even see a snow flurry by the end of the game.
The Way to Win
It looks like the way the Broncos can win this game is to force the Chiefs into a short game offensively. Short runs. Short passes. Then Denver will have to play their four-or-five man front with Left Defensive End Shelby Harris (who is Questionable), Nose Mike Purcell, Right Defensive End Dre’Mont Jones, then use rushing Linebackers, Bradley Chubb and Kenny Young, to get after Patrick Mahomes and hope they can put enough pressure on him to force turnovers. While the Broncos have one of the best groups of defensive backs, I’m not so sure the front five can put enough pressure on Mahomes to force those critical takeaways. It looks like it would take a Herculean effort for them to win this one.
For the Chiefs to win, it look like their Defense will have to have a great day… which I am projecting for them. If they can stop their running game — which should be easy enough (even though rookie RB Javonte Williams is coming into his own) — and put pressure on Teddy Bridgewater — which should be an easy task — the Chiefs coverage group, and more than capable linebackers, will have a heyday. While the Chiefs should not count on history to put a “W” up in the Win column, they should be able to accomplish everything Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo plan for them to do. That begins… or ends (depending on how you look at it)… with winning.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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