Chiefs Host Browns, Divisional Preview: OPEN THREAD

Today is Price Carter’s last article for ArrowheadOne. He has a new job writing for Arrowhead Live and if you’d like to follow his writing there, please go to: Arrowhead Live.com Please help me CONGRATULATE Price for his procuring a paying gig! Bravo, Price, Bravo! -Laddie Morse

Chiefs Host Browns, Divisional Preview: OPEN THREAD – by Price Carter – In 2015 the Chiefs faced the Houston Texans on Wild Card weekend. They had to travel to Houston to face the division champions, Kansas City had surged to finish the season after going 1-and-5 to begin the season. They dominated the game from the first snap, thanks to a 106 yard touchdown return by Knile Davis. The Texans started an inferior quarterback to Alex Smith in Bryan Hoyer who threw 4 interceptions. Kansas City dominated the game 30-0 and finally broke through for their first playoff win in decades. The following week they traveled to New England to face a Super Bowl caliber team and Tom Brady. Despite the final score being 27-20 in that game, it was never really close until some “oh by the way” scoring by the Chiefs. The Chiefs were dominated by the better quarterback, coach and roster. While it was great to finally get the playoff monkey off the back of the franchise, it was obvious Kansas City was not a championship contender. Yet. 

The divisional round is where the great teams separate from the good teams, it creates a separation between a playoff team and a Super Bowl team. The 2015 Chiefs have so much in common with the 2020 Browns. They have a great roster filled with young talent, they have the bright offensive minded head coach who elevates the play of his quarterback. They have a quarterback who relies upon his playmakers and scheme to be successful; and they have just won the biggest game in franchise history in decades. Unfortunately, another thing they have in common is facing a Super Bowl winning QB, coach and franchise in the divisional round. This is where the Browns show who they really are, and well… “The Browns are the Browns”……..

What to Watch For

The Browns Rushing Attack

There is this myth that a team can slow down the Chiefs offense by taking the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands and running the ball thereby dominating time of possession. The only problem with that is there’s not been a team to do that since October of 2019 when the Colts beat an injured Patrick Mahomes without Tyreek Hill, Eric Fisher and Chris Jones. As is always the case it wasn’t really about the Colts running the ball, it was about the Chiefs only scoring 13 points. In 2020, teams averaged about 12 possessions per a game. Despite ball control and time of possession a team can only sustain a drive for so long. The Browns can’t stop Mahomes from getting the ball 10-12 times. If they score 5 touchdowns and a few field goals on those drives it doesn’t really matter who had the ball longer or ran it successfully. Especially considering the fact that the Chiefs can score in seconds. See S.B. LIV.

The Browns must run the ball. It’s their identity. They’re 3rd in the NFL in 1st down run rate at 61% (behind only Baltimore and Tennessee), and 14th in 2nd down run rate at 40%. The Browns run the highest 13 personnel rate in the league (1 RB, 3 TEs) at 13%, and run two RBs 9% of the time (T-3rd). The Browns operate out of 11 personnel (3 WRs) only 42% of the time, 3rd lowest in the league. It makes sense that the Browns will attack the weaker part of Kansas City’s defense, but if they fall behind and lose the run, Mayfield loses his security blanket: play action and roll outs. This would be a great game for the Chiefs to get off to a hot start and force the Browns into passing only situations. Though Chubb and Hunt are both versatile pass catchers it allows Kansas City’s defensive strength, pass defense, to shine.

Chiefs Offense Has to Stay Special 

At this point it looks likely that the Chiefs will be without 3 key pieces on offense in: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Sammy Watkins and RT Mitchell Schwartz. While many of us may worry about the Chiefs weaker unit (defense) facing off against a solid offense, it may be even more important that the Chiefs offense continues to be the dominant force that it is. The Chiefs defense being average has been successful because they know that they can give up 20-to-25 points and still be successful at times. In 2018 and 2019, the Chiefs just needed the defense to make a few stops — which they could not do — to win.

The Browns defense is not good. Their secondary has struggled all season long and is devoid of real playmakers. Their pass rush has been average (ranked 16th in sacks), but has struggled of late with Myles Garrett recovering from Covid-19 and a season ending injury to Olive Vernon. The Chiefs offense is rested and has had extra time to scheme for the playoffs, but they need to come out and put up a big number without some key pieces. If they have some misfires and let Cleveland hang around in the 20-to-28 point range, that’s where they can find themselves in trouble. 

K.C. Must Pressure Baker Mayfield

Baker is a fair weather QB, when his surroundings are successful, he can be too. When plays break down and he gets off script, or pressured, which is where he struggles, he’ll makes mistakes. Getting pressure on him has been difficult this year. The Browns have four out of five of their offensive linemen graded in the top 10 of their position via PFF. Including the number overall guard in Wyatt Teller, who should be returning off of the Covid list. The Browns are the 8th best team in the league in pass protection, giving up a 18% pressure rate. Baker has only been hit 24 times, which is tied for the 2nd least amount in the league. Mayfield has only been sacked 26 times this year and has only been hurried 49 times. 

This has been a great development for Baker, because he likes to hold onto the ball. Mayfield is second in the league in terms of longest time to throw and has struggled under the blitz. Mayfield is not a real threat to run the ball and doesn’t have the arm talent to throw across his body, like Mahomes and Josh Allen can. This is where having close to $200 million on the defensive line needs to pay off. Chris Jones and Frank Clark need to win against an elite offensive line. Kansas City is still one of the most blitz heavy teams in the league, but that leaves playmakers such as Chubb, Hunt. Landry and Hooper generally in 1-on-1 coverage. 

Beating Cover 3

The Browns defensive coordinator Joe Woods is from the Pete Carrol coaching tree. They run a similar scheme to the 49’ers and the Chargers on defense. Of course the key difference is that the Browns don’t have the quality of players up front, nor on the back end, like the Chargers or the 49’ers. The Chiefs have struggled against defenses such as this in the past, because of their ability to limit big plays. Kansas City thrives off the big play. However, the Browns secondary has a key weakness against tight ends which makes Travis Kelce a very important part of the offensive game plan. The Browns have given up the 8th most yards to tight ends this season and the 5th most touchdowns. 

It’s possible that this could also be a game where the Chiefs utilize their rushing attack more. If you think back to the Super Bowl, RB Damien Williams was having a great game against the 49’ers cover-3 scheme, even before his long touchdown run to seal the game. I could see this game playing out similarly to the Bills game. Cleveland sells out to stop the deep passing entirely and begs the Chiefs to run into light boxes all day. Hopefully Bell and Williams will be able to make the most of their opportunities.

Prediction: Chiefs 33, Browns 23

The Browns will do enough to make this a game for a while. I could easily see them taking the ball down and punching it in on the opening possession. The Chiefs need to “survive the script” by getting through Kevin Stefanski’s first 15 plays which will no doubt challenge the defense. If K.C. can survive those initial plays without falling behind in a big way, unlike the Steelers were able to do in the Browns Wild Card game, the Chiefs should come out on top. It took 5 turnovers and a horrendous decision to punt at mid-field, for the Browns to win by 11 points against Pittsburgh. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will not be offering the same luxuries and I see the Chiefs pulling away in the second half.

Price Carter — ArrowheadOne

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