Chiefs Host Colts, Week 5 Game: OPEN THREAD

Chiefs Host Colts, Week 5 Game: OPEN THREAD – with three of the first four games on the road, the Kansas City Chiefs are finally at home the next two weeks and have completed what many have thought to be the hardest part of their schedule. Consequently, coming away from those first four games at 4-and-0 is fantastic. Now, Chiefs fans always have to have something to worry about… it’s ingrained in our nature by now. That “Thing” would be the defense. So, let’s take a deeper dive on what we have there.

While many K.C. pundits are saying that the current D is similar to the Bob Sutton defense of 2017 and 2018 not everyone shares that view. Here’s Chris Simms of MSNBC’s Profootballtalk breaking down the Chiefs defense:

It rings true, teams are taking chances right out of the gate, chances they would never take versus anybody else. That can place an incredible amount of stress on a defense… which is what we’ve been witness to so far this year. Will that stop today? Not on your tintype. However, that leads us to the question: will the Chiefs DC Steve finally make the necessary adjustments to compensate for the early-game deluge his defense is experiencing? I believe the answer to that one is: “Yessiree bobtail.” (and if you fully understand those old town colloquialisms then you probably knew my mother).

Here’s one minute of conversation on the 610 radio Show and Vern talk show about Bob Sutton’s defenses having multiple postseason losses to his name:

One very noticeable distinction about this year’s defense is how reactionary they are. Only once so far this season has the defense given up a score following their having given up a TD… and that score was a FG. In other words: no back-to-back-touchdowns. Here, have a look at all of the Chiefs opponents possessions:

The number next to the word PUNT in row one under the Jags column represents the number of plays before they had to punt (the same holds true for all other rows and columns). The black bars across each column represents Half Time. The RED in Bold (8 times) represents every time the Chiefs defense had a STOP following a touchdown made by the opponent (the defense has allowed 9 total TDs this year). The GREEN in Bold represents the one time the Chiefs defense did not get a STOP following an opponent’s TD.

What this shows me is that the defense can step up once a touchdown is permitted. That’s a huge advantage if they can continue that pattern.

Perhaps more importantly, the defense has made 27 STOPS out of 44 opponents possessions. A STOP includes: a punt, a fumble recovery, an interception, a half time, or an end of the game. That’s a 61% Stoppage rate. Now, I must admit, I have no idea how often, or at what stoppage rate, the Chiefs defense in other years has achieved, nor do I know what the best defenses in the league have for  a Stoppage rate… but 61% seems like a workable percentage when you have Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the ball.

While I am not at all satisfied with the performance of this year’s defense, yet, I think there is the great possibility that they could end up being much better than they have looked over what many have called the toughest part of the Chiefs schedule. Beyond that, I’d like to re-emphasize the importance of a defense being able to step up when they need to to make a STOP, which the above graphic appears to indicate. The significance of that is… the Chiefs will need a Super Bowl defense if they indeed wish to win a Super Bowl. While that does not mean they will need to rely upon their defense the way the 2000 Baltimore Ravens did or the 1985 Chicago Bears. What is necessary is, being able to make enough STOPS when they are needed, to allow the superior offense of the Chiefs to shine through.

Now, some may doubt that Super Bowl Champions can win it all without the services of a top level D. However, let’s take a look at all the Super Bowl Champions for the past 15 years to see where their defenses ended up being ranked that year and whether or not they were the winners of the Lombardi that year.

So, 6 times in the past 15 years, the team with the superior defense won the Super Bowl. Or… 9 times, the team with the lesser ranked defense in the regular season, ended up winning it all. That’s a Defensive Edge of only 40%. 

What stands out more to me as I was putting this research together, is that each team that won, did so because they had several players who were outstanding.

• 2006 was Peyton Manning’s breakthrough year.
• The next year, the NY Giants beat the almighty Patriots with superior defensive line play.
• The 2008 Steelers won because of a 100 yard INT TD by James Harrison and a last minute toe tappin’ TD catch at the back of the end zone by Santonio Holmes.
• 2009 was Drew Brees breakout season and we can recall him holding his son after that game.
• 2010 was Aaron Rodgers big year as he skillfully took apart the Steelers.
• In 2011 the NY Giants beat the Patriots again… again with superior DL play (and we have they DC from that team as the DC of the Chiefs now).
• 2012 one HC beat his brother the HC when the Ravens whipped the 49ers for Joe Flacco’s 15 seconds of fame and the demise of Colin Kaepernick… and the gift wrapping of Alex Smith to the Chiefs.
• In 2013, the Seahawks clearly walloped the Broncos with a dominant defense. Peyton Manning had his best year ever but he couldn’t take down Seattle’s great D.
• in 2014, the Seahawks had the Pats beat but Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball at the goal line in the last minute instead of using the RB in the NFL: Marshawn Lynch as DB Malcolm Butler cut in front of the Seahawks WR for an INT to grab the headlines.
• 2015, Manning finally won his 2nd SB ring but this time his skills were gone and the Broncos defense carried them home to victory.
• In 2016, the Pats took advantage of the Falcons #25 ranked defense and made the biggest comeback in SB history.
• In 2017, the Eagles outlasted the Pats by outscoring them. Even though the Eagles had the 4th best defense in the league, defense had no part in this game with the final score adding up to 75 points.
• Last year, following the 2018 season, the Patriots dismantled the Los Angeles Rams powerful offense 13-3 even though both teams had defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league.

So, you can see that “defense” doesn’t always win the day. The moniker, “Defense wins championships” is not necessarily a truism. Does defense matter? Sure, but it’s just not the be-all-end-all that it may have been in decades past. IOW, the Chiefs defense can be a Super Bowl defense. Even if it doesn’t look like it right now. What does matter, is that the Chiefs have other, redeeming qualities. Which they do. In spades.

Weather Report

All you really need to know is that the weather for tonight’s game will be nearly idyllic:

I was off last week by a lot. However, I see no reason to think I shouldn’t make my prediction this week so, I’ll go with: Chiefs 42, Colts 13. Go Chiefs!

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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