Chiefs Host Jags, Divisional: OPEN THREAD

Laddie Morse

We all remember RB Jamaal Charles, right? He leads the NFL in all time Yards Per Carry with a 5.4 average among running back (since 1950). Why bring him up in a piece about the Chiefs and the Jags? Because if the Jags are going to beat the Chiefs, they will have to lean heavily upon their excellent Running Back, Travis Etienne. So, what does Charles have to do with Etienne? We’ll Etienne is having a Charles-esk year in terms of YPC. His 2022-2023 average is 5.2 and if the Chiefs have any hope of beating the Jacksonville Jaguars, it will be because they have limited — not stopped — but limited, Travis Etienne.

The Top NFL running backs in 2022 have not done their best vs the Chiefs this year, especially in the Chiefs last ten games. While two RBs stick out — Cincinnati’s Samaje Perine and Tennessee’s Derrick Henry — the rest have not done as well as the Chiefs starting RB, Isiah Pacheco.

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Pacheco has 4.9 YPC in the 2022-2023 season and that is better than eight (8) out of the last ten (10) RBs the Chiefs defense has faced this year (in the final 10 weeks), including Travis Etienne Jr.. The reason for pointing this out up front in this piece is that if the Chiefs Defense can keep Etienne from going off early, the game will be pretty much over for the Jags.

Games are often decided based upon match-ups and the Chiefs ability to stop the run, should help to dictate the outcome of this affair, so that’s the first place to keep your eyes pealed. K.C. is 8th against the run in terms of Yards Allowed. Jags are 12th.

The other way the Jags could come into Arrowhead and surprise the heavily favored Chiefs is through attitude. The Jags have won six straight coming into this game and with Doug Pederson as their head coach, you can bet they’ll be hyped and ready to continue their winning ways. Many have compared Doug Pederson going to Jacksonville to when Andy Reid came to Kansas City and they are not far off. The Jags were 3-and-14 a year ago, and the Chiefs were 2-and-14 the year before Reid came to K.C.. The difference here is… while the Jags pulled one out last week vs the Chargers, the Chiefs went 9-and-0 right out of the gate then lost there first playoff game under Andy Reid to the Indianapolis Colts, 45-to-44.

Now, the Chiefs have a decided advantage with Reid getting extra time to prepare, and we all know how well an Andy Reid team does following a Bye week. Reid has a 87.1% winning percentage in games right after Bye week (Reid normally has a 63.3% winning percentage in regular season and playoff games). Let’s not pretend that this distinct advantage means nothing. In his interview on Thursday with Chris Simms, Reid was asked about his After-the-Bye-Week success, and he acted like he really didn’t know what Simms was asking him about and said it probably has to do with the extra time to prepare, but that otherwise, he didn’t know why he’d have more success then.

DOH! Right on, “said the joker to the thief”……….

One of the biggest question marks surrounding the Chiefs this season is just how well QB Patrick Mahomes would adapt without WR Tyreek Hill? Mahomes invited his new cast of Wide outs to Texas and they were able to workout together and they not only bonded on the field, but off. By the time those players all got to camp, the receiving core was solidly ensconced in the playbook and equally connected with their hurler.

The one-year time period Patrick Mahomes was given to study behind Alex Smith was invaluable. While I’ve often wondered if Mahomes could have led the Chiefs to a Super Bowl in his rookie year, there’s no denying that he was given a great gift by sitting and learning from one of the best in the game: Alex Smith. This is Trevor Lawrence’s second season and he had no such grace period such as Mahomes had. Last season, his rookie year, he played for the now departed Urban “What a Joke” Meyer. The Jags finished 3-and-14 last season and had the first pick in the NFL Draft two years running. In 2021, they drafted QB Trevor Lawrence first overall and this past year they took DE Travon Walker.

Although the Jags are growing together as a young defense, there just no way they will be able to keep up with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

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Game Time Weather

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While the temperature sound like it will be very cold, it won’t be below freezing and the field is heated for those who have forgotten. IOW, it may end up being an ideal day for football. Weather reports here have been going back and forth on the idea that snow (or precipitation) may be falling during the game, but one thing they all agree on is that the snow will not accumulate. At least we can be certain that the wind will not be much of a factor if at all. Bravo!

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Referee Assignment

Shawn Hochuli and crew are the referees for this game today vs the Jags. Here’s a bit written for Arrowheadguys.com:

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“So when the referee assignments for the Divisional Round was announced, Chiefs fans were understandably upset. Why? Because the Crew Chief was none other than referee Shawn Hochuli. If you watched the last match-up between Kansas City and Houston, you probably know who he is. He was made infamous for his decision to reverse a DPI on a turnover play, which changed the course of the game.”

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While Shawn is a wealth management advisor in his day job, the reminder of that fact highlights that the NFL still needs to pay their officials a full time wage and not expect them to have to go out and get a job. Shawn became a head referee when his father retired: Ed Hochuli. When he was advanced to his current position as a head referee — at the suggestion of his father — many wanted to point out the nepotism and favoritism in that move, especially since others were more qualified. Either way, I am more interested in seeing the owners come up with a way to pay the referees, and their crews, a full time wage, so they don’t have to go out and work another job just to survive.

Id’ also like to see the referees — at least the head referee — make a statement after the game and then field questions by the media present for the game. Let’s keep “everyone” accountable.

What do you think?

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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