Chiefs Host Patriots, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – by David Bell – It’s Thursday Night (as I write this) and all NFL nuts will be keeping an eye on tonight’s game which should be interesting. It features the Broncos at the Jets… MEH. Me? I am working up a Pregame view of the contest against between the Kansas City Chiefs the New England Patriots which was supposed to be on Sunday at 3:25 PM…. which has now been postponed to Monday evening.
The Chiefs are coming of a very solid game played on a hostile field against a hostile opponent, the Ravens. You may have a different view than I, but I have had no love for the organization, the city or the team. I was very pleased by the 34-20 result. It should have been a wider margin, but 14 was the difference and that far exceeded the Spread. That the Chiefs were not the favorite in this game demonstrates the continued disdain that the NFL Insiders, the betting public, as well as bookies and NFL pundits, all have for the Chiefs. They were once again proved “WRONG”! It was a gratifying win.
In his presser this short between games, Eric Bieniemy was asked by Herbie Teope what the name of the TD to Eric Fisher Play was called. Bieniemy couldn’t recall the na, but revealed the neat little screen pass in the middle to Anthony Sherman was called: “Smoke Sausage.”
On to Sunday!
Let’s Start with Chiefs Injuries
L’Jarius Sneed, CB – L’Jarius Sneed has been placed on the IR due to a collar bone fracture in the game against the Ravens. This was a crucial injury, but Sam Madison observed that all the players in the secondary stepped up, specifically noting Rashad Fenton. Under the current rules, he must remain on the IR for 3 games. The general recovery time for this type of fracture is 4-8 weeks. Sneed was playing some quality football up to the point of his attempt to intercept the pass when he sustained the injury. Let’s hope that his recovery time is the shorter version anticipated. The Chiefs were already short-handed of experienced CB’s. The Chiefs elevated CB Chris Lammons on the to protected status. He had 12 games with the Dolphins in his background before the Chiefs signed him to the PS.
Of even greater interest to me personally was the elevation of LB Darius Harris to the Active Roster. He was a Middle Tennessee State UDFA invited to camp last year. This may demonstrate that the Chiefs are concerned about the LB Corp and their poor performance as a group.
Chris Jones, DT – During the game, Chris Jones came out and did not return. He tweaked the groin and though it was judged to be a minor injury, he was LP on Thursday (see table below). I fear he wouldn’t be ready by Sunday afternoon… but with extra because the game was postponed, he could be up and running. Consequently, the Chiefs protected Braxton Hoyett on the practice squad.
Aside from Jones being Limited on Thursday, everyone else was Full Practice.
| Player | Injury | Status |
| DT Chris Jones (This is the biggest worry) | Groin | LP |
| DE Alex Okafor | Hamstring | FP |
| WR Tyreek Hill | Heel | FP |
| CB Charvarius Ward | Hand | FP |
| C Austin Reiter | Knee | FP |
| DT Derrick Nnadi | Ankle | FP |
| DB Juan Thornhill | Knee | FP |
| RT Mitchell Schwartz | Ankle | FP |
| RG Andrew Wylie | Illness | FP |
As far as injuries go, aside from losing L’Jarius Sneed to injury, the biggest concern is Chris Jones but with a status of Limited Practice tells us he has a good chance of being ready but I am still concerned.
What to Expect from the Patriots
The Team suffered the departure of Tom Brady, that is a given. It looked like Jarrett Stidham had the inside track to become the Patriots starting QB. Enter Cam Newton, who was immediately made the team signal caller. This in itself is good news for the team in that they bring a QB aboard who has been deep in the playoffs, had a shot to get to the Big Game and is now the best shot the Pats have at being a contender (from their point of view). But what of the 4th round pick they nicknamed: “Stid?” He was the backup to Brady in 2019, is a coaches player, is a hard worker… and now he’s their #3 QB (#2 with Newton sitting out this game)?
Cam Newton, QB – He’s out this week.
Brian Hoyer, QB – Brian Hoyer is to get start this evening. Some view this as a safer option for the Patriots over Jarrett Stidham. He has 69 games under his belt and as a starter his record is 16-22. his completion percentage is 59.1%. He is a capable, experienced backup QB who came into the league in 2009 with the Patriots. Of course he was not the starter but coming back to the Patriots in 2019 does give him a leg up in familiarity. In between he spent intervening years at the Browns, Texans, 49’ers, Colts… He is not a tier 1 and probably not a tier 2 QB. For the Chiefs opponent, he is a far easier opponent than Newton to face.
Julian Edelman, WR – Edelman has been a thorn in the side of all opponents in the NFL and the Patriots know how to get him the ball. Bill Belichick will get the most out him. The other receivers are: N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers. I may be giving him too much credit but I think it is deserved. The WR’s are going to be a threat, but the group, as a whole, is not.
Bill Belichick, HC is the master arch-rival and Wizard of adjustment almost since he arrived from Cleveland. I recall all the pundits saying he was not going to be a successful HC at the time. What more can be said about a head coach than to say he is a master among many and that he is the actual foe that Andy Reid and Company must counter.
Patriot Defense – The Pats Defense has weaknesses and strengths. Chase Winovich, an edge defender, has come on like gangbusters. Winovich has really appeared to come into his own with the Patriots so far this year. He is a dangerous threat with the pass rush. Right now he is ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run and 6th in pass-rushing. That means that either Mitch Schwartz or Eric Fisher will have a tussle on Sunday.
Pat’s LBs – They may be a couple of drafts away from achieving solid linebacking status, clearly similar to the Chiefs. They sport Shilique Calhoun, who is looking good there, but I can’t say much about the other LB’s. The defense against the Raiders came together and made the stops against the Raiders and that was how the Patriots got the win. The other LB’s are suspect and I get the feeling that the Patriots feel the same way. They have been mixing in several players trying to come up with the right answer.
Pat’s Secondary – So too is the secondary at least suspect. Mr. Mahomes should easily pick them apart. They won’t know how to cover so many different options that the Chiefs will have running routes at them. The Secondary boasts Kevin McCourty (CB) and Adrian Phillips (S) so things won’t be piece of cake.
Game Strategy: We’uns vs Them’uns
On Offense – In his presser this week, Eric Bieniemy said that the Chiefs get to the same page and prepare to play cohesive football with the intent to get points on the first possession and go from there. Patrick Mahomes should be able to find the rich targets due to the speed of all five WR’s. I have no doubt in the offense’s ability to be highly effective whether the the Patriots take away the deep pass or defend intermediate passing. Mahomes has proven totally effective either way.
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire being used in the aerial game, we have a proven added dimension. Darrell Williams and Darwin Thompson are also effective threats as receivers out he the backfield. Then there’s Travis Kelce and #2 TE Nick Keizer (who had much success as a receiver in camp). They have not focused on him at all, so my prediction is, you’ll see Nick make a big play maybe two as he;ll be discounted by the Patriot defense. Deon Yelder hasn’t been used.
Going against the Patriot secondary and linebackers is going to be fun. The Patriots are working over their LB corp and like the Chiefs, the Patriots have work to do but so do the Chiefs. Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy will team up and throw so many wrinkles at the Patriot defense, that it will be tough to keep the Chiefs out of the end zone. Check out Laddie Morse’s article from Friday: “How Do You Defend That.“
Defense – For K.C., Darius Harris was called up to the active squad which tells us how the Chiefs view their own LB position group. The two starting LBs are, shall we say, less than stellar and the LB group is the weakest of all the position groups of the Chiefs. The LB’s have to do a far better job of reading the play and getting to the LoS as well vs the run.
Even with knowing that the Chiefs Cornerbacks are short-handed, the LBs are still the weakest link. Spags can easily shift things up with Safeties for aerial defense but the LB corp has been a day late and dollar short too often to have any comfort in the group.
The Chiefs boast 3 of the top 35 pass rushers: Frank Clark, Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi. Jones was not be able to play on Sunday but Monday may still be in the cards. Plus, there’s still Tanoh Kpassagnon, Alex Okafor and Taco Charlton on the outside. Inside there’s Khalen Saunders, Mike Pennel and Tershawn Wharton. With all this personnel, no matter what defense set is called, they should do well. Still, I hope for Jones to make his usual start. This crew is enough to wear down any offensive line if the Chiefs maintain majority of possessions and duration drives in the first half. I expect this and the early second half to tell the tale on the Chiefs having the fresh legs.
Steve Spagnuolo made two observations:
First, the Secondary was doing a good job of making the offense earn any yards and,
Secondly, the Defense was effective in preventing “Explosive Plays.”
This highlights positive play in the secondary. New England’s OC, Josh McDaniel, has said he likes to attack weaknesses, which expects to see revealed in the first quarter. Spags is counting on the help of Matt House and Brandon Daly to counter, saying, “They’re excellent at figuring things out.” He then observed that the front four aided the secondary, especially on play action by forcing the QB to tuck and run, or make a less than ideal throws. About the safeties? Spags said that they were totally solid.
Sam Madison also took questions this week. He and coach Dave Merritt have installed a solid secondary. He was especially complimentary of Tyrann Mathieu and what he gave the team in terms of versatility and coaching on the field. Madison expects the return of Bashaud Breeland next week to uplift the secondary as well.
The Patriot running game out of the 11-personnel set is what the Chiefs will anticipate. The Pat’s have shown the two known factors Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead. This year they have an added dimension with the emerging JJ Taylor. Taylor may be the surprise player of their skill players. The Chiefs cannot presume that he is an easy mark when he is in the backfield.
Time of Possession
Key to the game is often Time of Possession. Here is the place that the Chiefs must keep control of the game. They do this by ensuring they get first half stops against what has been shown thus far to be a capable offense. The Ravens game plan was the same – control the clock, keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes hands as much as possible. This is what the Patriots will try to do Three or four defensive stops makes that happen.
What About Special Teams?
The Chiefs special teams did not have a good game last week. Punter Tommy Townsend did well with only one punt. The Chiefs defense against the Kick-off was a breakdown because Darwin Thompson did not hold the edge resulting in a Ravens TD. That TD runback was a kickoff by Harrison Butker intended to make the Ravens return the kick. Dave Toub didn’t single anyone out and said that there was blame to go all around. Uncle Dave… fix these defects!
Chiefs v Patriots Prediction
Playing at home, and playing with fans in the seats, are both a big advantages.
Chiefs 41 – Patriots 17.
David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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