Chiefs Host Raiders, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – by James S. McGregor

Chiefs Host Raiders, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – by James S. McGregor – Heading into Week 5 of what has proven to be a turbulent 2020 NFL season, there is one comforting constant that remains: it’s Raiders week, and one may always count on the Kansas City Chiefs and all of Chiefs Kingdom to get thoroughly fired up for the team’s first annual matchup against DA RAIDAHS! Oh, and SPOILER ALERT… at the end of the day, when it’s all said and done with (thank you Eric Bieniemy) another comforting constant we can PROBABLY bet on continuing through the end of this week is that the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs will dominate the Jon Gruden and Derek Carr-led Raiders. However, here at ArrowheadOne we believe in doing our due diligence for our readers, so here’s your game preview for Raiders-Chiefs in Arrowhead in Week 5.

The Injury Report

As of the writing of this game preview (Thursday), this was what the injury report looked like: The Chiefs had zero players listed on the official Thursday injury report. On Wednesday, DT Chris Jones was the only player listed on the report — Questionable — and as a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, as he is still nursing what seems to be a mild groin injury, but he is still a practice participant, so expect to see him on the field… if the coaching staff determines that his production is needed. Additionally, the Chiefs Thursday morning presser revealed that DE Mike Danna didn’t practice, though he was not included on the late week official injury reports. The Las Vegas injury report was a bit longer on Wednesday, as the following Raiders were all listed as questionable: TE Darren Waller (knee, limited participant), WR Bryan Edwards (foot/ankle, non-participant), WR Henry Ruggs III (knee/hamstring, limited), RB Jalen Richard (ankle, limited), OT Sam Young, CB Keisean Nixon, CB Nevin Lawson, DT Johnathan Hankins and LB Nick Kwiatkoski. On Thursday’s report, Waller was still listed as questionable and limited with his knee injury.

The Current Situation in Las Vegas

The Raiders come into Week 5 with a 2-2 record. This team opened the season strong, but have since returned to Earth, having dropped their last two games. The strong start may have also been somewhat of a mirage, as they defeated the Panthers in Week 1 — but gave up 30 points to them — and then beat the Saints in Week 2. At first glance, the win over the Saints appeared to be a serious eye-opener and had many national talking heads questioning if the Raiders might be a playoff contender and a genuine threat to the Chiefs. This, of course, is due largely to much off-season hype and predictions that the Saints would likely be one of, if not the most likely, team to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LV. However, the first month of the Saints season has been a different story, as QB Drew Brees has begun to seriously show signs of ageing — much earlier in the season than in recent years — and players on both sides of the ball have failed to live up to lofty offseason expectations. The Raiders then promptly reminded the world of what they really are: getting blown out by the new-look Patriots, and then getting beat by a Bills team that travelled across country to face the Raiders in Las Vegas.

As is often the case, QB Derek Carr is actually putting up solid statistics so far (73.6% completion percentage, 1,095 passing yards, 8 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 77.1 QBR through four games). However, and again in somewhat Derek Carr fashion, he hasn’t quite backed up these stats with big-moment poise – bottom line, he’s padding his stats but not getting the job done. Also, Carr has lost three 4th quarter fumbles already in their 4 games this season.

Second year RB Josh Jacobs has put up 300 rushing yards and three rushing TDs, but on 83 carries has only managed 3.6 YPA. Finally, TE Darren Waller again has proven to be Carr’s safety blanket, as he thus far leads the Raiders in receiving (29 receptions, 247 yards, 8.5 YPR and 1 TD). Looking back to the injury report, it’s difficult to know just how productive a hurt Waller will be, especially going against a surprisingly solid Chiefs secondary.

Bottom line: remember that oft-used phrase “the Raiders will Raider”? Well, that’s the situation through the first month of the 2020 season: don’t expect this to change much as they travel to Arrowhead.

The Current Situation in Kansas City

4-0. Undefeated. Opened the season by handily defeating a Texans team that was supposed to be a serious AFC contender but which now stands at 0-4 and without their head coach (yes, Bill O’Brien was fired this week, for anyone who missed that). Overcame what was supposed to be a “trap” game against a determined Chargers team that somehow always gives them trouble, with absolutely heroic efforts abound (especially from K Harrison Butker, who not only tied the Chiefs’ franchise record with a 58-yard FG, but who for all intents and purposes drilled a 53-yard FG and three 58-yard FGs to hand the Chiefs a dramatic OT victory over a tough division rival who surprised everyone by starting a rookie QB who has rapidly proven himself as a poised stud NFL quarterback). Went to Baltimore in primetime on Monday night, and effectively dominated the reigning NFL unanimous MVP (97 passing yards? Yikes!) and what was thought to be the one team in the NFL that could seriously threaten a Chiefs repeat. Took the best shot from arguably greatest football mind of all time Bill Belichick, and said, “No Bill, not today – this is our time.” What more really is there to say? In an utterly chaotic 2020, the Chiefs are here to remind everyone that they are reigning Super Bowl Champions, and that they do not plan to let go of that title anytime soon.

Mahomes is still doing Mahomes things – nothing new there. The cast of characters on offense is still doing what it does, making defensive coordinators around the league essentially throw their hands up and plead, “What am I supposed to do against that?” As has been well documented, the Chiefs added yet another potent weapon to an already deadly arsenal in rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Clyde “the Glide” – who has electrified the Kansas City offense with 433 all-purpose yards in four games (304 rushing, 129 receiving). Tight End Travis Kelce is already en route to extending his already absurd streak of 1,000-yard receiving seasons, as he’s already racked up 297 yards to lead the Chiefs in receiving through the first quarter of the season. The Chiefs are currently sitting on an all-time franchise record 13-game winning streak. And the Chiefs defense that was supposed to be the weakness of the reigning Super Bowl Champs? That defense currently ranks as the 2nd best scoring defense in the entire NFL (not the AFC West, not the AFC … but the entire dang league).

Oh by the way, this is a defense that has been without its best 2019 CB Bashaud Breeland for all four games, a defense which went without run-stuffer DT Mike Pennel for the first two games, a defense which saw CB Charvarious Ward play essentially with one hand tied behind his back, a defense which went without DT Chris Jones who just so happens to be clearly the 2nd best DT in the NFL and who was tied for the league lead in sacks prior to his missing a game due to injury. One more thing, P Tommy Townsend, in his 4th game as a Chief (after replacing beloved P Dustin Colquitt, who owns the record for games played in a Chiefs uniform) set a new Chiefs franchise record with a game average of 60.8 yards per punt (yes, that wasn’t a typo – that really is SIXTY POINT EIGHT YARDS PER PUNT). Shall we make more points here, or can we rest our case that the Chiefs come into Week 5 as the clear-cut best team in the NFL? Yes? Ok good, let’s move right along, then.

Keys to the Game

Did you read the last two paragraphs? There’s one key to this game: $_IT HAPPENS, resulting in a dominating Chiefs victory, but just for “shiggles” (this is a family-friendly site, so use your imagination if you dare), let’s just pretend there are some key factors to look for, in this game.

The COVID Effect

With every game/week that comes, we must now examine how the worldwide pandemic COVID-19 could possibly affect any given sports game (shall we change “any given Sunday” to “any given deadly virus”?). Raiders DL Maurice Hurst was placed on the reserve COVID-19 list on Tuesday after testing positive for the virus. As of Thursday afternoon, there was no further word of Raiders players/staff being tested positive for the virus. Additionally, it has been reported that Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore tested positive. He had reportedly had dinner Friday night before the Chiefs-Patriots game with infected player Cam Newton, and still travelled with the team and played against the Chiefs (and shared a post-game hug with Mahomes). Hopefully by the time this article posts, the game is still on. If you are a Chiefs fan, can we just all please cross our fingers and hope that our team doesn’t get somehow screwed out of an opportunity this week to beat the heck outta the Raiders? Thanks!

Stopping the Raiders Run Game

It has been noted earlier in this article that the Raiders run game has not accounted for a lot of YPC, but they have pounded the ball effectively at times. This could be something to watch against a Chiefs defense that has been solid overall but has also at times demonstrated extremely lax efforts at tackling and run-stopping. If the Chiefs defense can limit the Raiders ability to run the ball for big gains, this will obviously create more 3rd-and-long situations and force Carr to throw.

Chiefs Pass Defense

What a lovely segue into the next key to this game! First things first – Derek Carr has been pretty bad over the past few years in Arrowhead. If the Chiefs defense can force the Raiders into more passing downs, one really important thing to watch is how these downs play out. How will the Chiefs pass rush pressure Carr (also, he’s historically bad under pressure)? How will defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo rotate in and out his many DBs? Corner Rashad Fenton was the Chiefs highest graded PFF player on defense in Week 4, with an overall grade of 83.1 (aided in large part by an INT and three PBUs), but the Chiefs have also seen fantastic DB play from Ward… and Safeties Tyrann Mathieu… and Juan Thornhill… and now Bashaud Breeland will work into the rotation.

Getting the Offense Rolling Again

For a Chiefs fan, you have to feel really stoked when your team wins a game against Belichick and the Patriots, even when your star QB still for some reason looks genuinely pissed when he gives his post-game press conference. Let’s face it, the Chiefs offense got it done but also looked not so great for much of that game against the Pats and Mahomes definitely got away with a few mistakes (most remarkably a couple pass attempts that probably should’ve gone down as INTs, as well as a bizarre play that went down as a sack but could have gone as a fumble). The Chiefs were held to 6 points and zero TDs until the end of the 3rd quarter, and it was abundantly clear that this performance would not fly with Mahomes or offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. So, look for the Chiefs to get back on track this week against a Raiders defense that is… well… really bad at playing the game of football.

How Chiefs Win

Wake up and breathe? Okay, seriously, there could be more to it than just showing up, right? Well, as mentioned above, Mahomes (the “competitive prick,” thanks again, E.B.) will likely be out for blood this week and should have a big game. Spags will continue to confuse the Raiders offense by rotating a bunch of DBs, LBs and DLs through in various schemes to essentially keep Gruden, Carr and the Raiders offense on their toes and constantly guessing. The Chiefs front seven on defense will need to slow down Jacobs enough to force Carr into predictable passing situations, and then get pressure with the pass rush. Finally, it probably won’t make much difference, but would be nice to see Harrison Butker get back on track. And… on that note: special teams coordinator Dave Toub announced in his Thursday presser that Butker’s recent struggles were mechanics-related, that they discovered what was causing the pulled kicks, and put in extra work this week to correct the issue.

How Raiders Win

Pray. Seriously – just pray. Okay fine, if we must come up with real answers. Jacobs has to have the game of his life, running the ball and in the screen game where the Chiefs are at times susceptible. If Carr can get enough protection to avoid pressure, he can find targets like Waller, Ruggs (if those two are available and 100%) and Jacobs for big gains. They’ll also need to get a few lucky bounces – an unexpected special teams win (or three), or something like punching the ball out of Chiefs hands. Basically, a Moses parting the Red Sea kinda game.

Final Score Prediction

Coming into Arrowhead, even with a limited crowd, the Raiders will put up very little fight against the reigning Super Bowl Champs and clear-cut best team in the league. We usually look at any game against a division rival as a serious challenge (the whole “anything can happen and it’ll be really hard fought and it’s a RIVALRY” thingy), but this just won’t be that game. Andy Reid will probably quit halfway through the 3rd quarter just to be kind to a man he respects, in colleague Jon Gruden… and the Chiefs will notch their 6th win in a row against the Raiders.

Final score: Chiefs win, 38-13

James S. McGregor — ArrowheadOne

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