Chiefs Host Saints: The Good News, The Bad News
We are at a part of the season that many fans were pointing to before the beginning of the season: the week after the Bye begins a run of what have been characterized as “an easy stretch of games.” I can recall it being said that if the Chiefs were 3-2 going into this five game stretch they should be favored in the AFC West and favored to make the playoffs. In fact, I may have been one of those people (but it sure pays to have short term memory loss). Fortunately, we have certain Mensa types to keep us honest — right Bert?
So, what do we know… or think we know… about the New Orleans Saints? The obvious is that they have a future Hall of Fame quarterback leading them which makes them dangerous no matter how well their defense is not playing and it look like they’re not playing that well this year. At 2-and-3 the Saints are in a division race for their lives right now and if they lose on Sunday could end up 3 games out of first to Atlanta if the Falcons beats the San Diego Chargers, who they are hosting, and with half the season to go it’s would likely be an insurmountable margin.
In the Chiefs division: if the Chiefs lose and the Raiders and Broncos win, they could fall a game behind in the all-important loss column. The Raiders are visiting the Jaguars in Jacksonville — which is a likely win — and the Broncos are hosting the Houston Texans and ex-Denver QB Brock Osweiler — who they can’t wait to “kill” (their words, not mine). Here’s a look at each division race:
The Good News
The New Orleans Saints Rushing Defense is ranked 26th in the NFL. They are allowing 137 yards rushing each game and when matched up against K.C.’s 14th ranked rushing attack it appears the be “the” exploitable weakness. Fans should expect Andy Reid to test the tensile strength of the N.O defense because it looks like it hasn’t gotten any better since Rob Ryan left at the end of last season.
The Bad News
The New Orleans Saints are the number one passing team in the league so far this season while the Chiefs have the 22nd best passing defense. Conversely, you can expect the Saints head coach to give QB Drew Brees a steady diet of passing plays and not let up. For all intents and purposes, it looks like it will be a game of seeing which team can make the other team crack under pressure because each team’s strength appears to be the other team’s weakness.
The Good News
If it was all that simple they would just call the game into the Vegas bookies and call it a day. So, there are a number of other factors that should tell the tale of this game at the end of the day. The Chiefs 9th ranked Rushing Defense should do well against the Saints 29th ranked Rushing Offense. With the Chiefs able to rely on knowing that they can handle the rushing game of the Saints, they should be able to pin their ears back and go after Drew Brees in the passing game.
There are reasons the Chiefs defensive backfield has been rated low. Injuries, rookies and changeover have had a lot to do with what we’ve seen out of the K.C DBs so far this year. According to ProFootballFocus (PFF) the Chiefs will be facing their 4th top rated QB in their first 6 games of the year: Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr and now Drew Brees all ranking in the top 12. There’s a good possibility the Chiefs will have their act together for a home game against Mr. Brees.
The Bad News
That is unless, Saints head coach Sean Payton can out-Reid Andy Reid. If the Saints come out and throw a high number of short passes and screen passes and are able to keep the K.C rush and pressure off of Drew Brees, the Saints can go home with a “W.” A game plan like that would neutralize both Tamba Hali and Dee Ford who has looked like a future star lately. Ford has not only taken care of his responsibilities by consistently setting the edge but has been difficult for Tackles to handle late in games, with the game on the line which can be attributed to his superior conditioning.
The Good News
If the Saints try to come out and just start going deep right away, I think the Chiefs could not only win this game but possibly make it a laugher. If the Chiefs can establish the running game they should be able to make some headway in the passing game against the Saints #2 passing defense. If instead Andy Reid tries to force a passing game against one of the league’s best then it may be a long day for fans of the red & gold.
So, who needs to have a good day for the Chiefs to come away with a victory?
- The K.C. offense must manipulate the clock by running the ball and keeping Drew Brees off the field. Spencer Ware and the offensive line must dominate. Travis Kelce will need to get free and be that safety-valve over the middle.
- QB Alex Smith must manage the game, stay mistake-free and be accurate.
- The K.C. defense must shut down the run because of the Saints can run then the game is over for the Chiefs. The front seven must make Drew Brees life a pain. Especially guys like Dee Ford.
- If DB Marcus Peters gets a pick early it could go a long way towards forcing Brees to look for other players to throw the ball at. The DBs must limit Brees because there is little hope of shutting him down.
Who will need to have big days for the Saints to Succeed? Drew Brees. As stated, the Saints will lean heavily on the passing game and Brees has been successful there with his targets having plenty of production:
WR Brandin Cooks- 41 targets — 25 receptions — 428 yards — 3 TDs
WR Michael Thomas- 36 targets — 26 receptions — 307 yards — 3 TDs
WR Willie Snead- 25 targets — 19 receptions — 296 yards — 2 TDs
TE Coby Fleener- 35 targets — 19 receptions — 237 yards — 2 TDs
If these players are productive, it could lead to a New Orleans victory. They lost their first three games but have now won two in a row and it will be critical to at least slow them down and keep them from getting on an early roll. Roy Anderson from WhoDatDish.com has this to say about the meaning of the contest for the Saints:
“Against Kansas City we’ll find out the truth. The Chiefs are a bonafide playoff contender with a solid defense and an out of this world running game. The Chargers and Panthers were basically a preseason for the new look Saints defense and an offense that has learned to work around any shortcomings, still under the guidance of Drew Brees. The 2016 season restart is on Sunday, October 23 in Kansas City.”
From Terez Paylor at the Kansa City Star comes this evaluation of the Saints nearly sainted QB,
“Former Super Bowl MVP and future Hall of Famer who is still elite. Has thrown for 4,000-plus yards for 10 straight seasons and has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,734 yards, 14 touchdowns and only four interceptions in 2016. Is the ultimate conductor; the Saints are excellent in red-zone touchdown percentage (first) and third-down percentage (third), which is a testament to his efficiency and Payton’s play calling.”
Injuries
The Saints will be missing three starters on defense: LLB Dannell Ellerbe (quadriceps), LCB Delvin Breaux (lower leg injury) and LG Andrus Peat (groin). LT Terron Armstead is Questionable and if he misses the game it could be big. The Chiefs sending Allen Bailey and Justin March-Lillard to Injured Reserve this week is significant but there are those who think the team is too deep to miss them much, especially JML. Both Phillip Gaines (knee) and Jamaal Charles (swelling in his knee) could miss this one but oddly enough, Gaines would be missed more.
The challenges are clear-cut but the Chiefs should have too much depth, talent and experience to allow the Saints to scratch out a win. I’ll take the Chiefs in this one: 27-24. What do you think Chiefs fans? Have any good-news-bad-news revelations?
That’s a Lateral pass to you!
