Chiefs Host Texans, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD

Chiefs Host Texans, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – by Price Carter – It’s been 242 days since the Kansas City Chiefs embarrassed the Houston Texans in Arrowhead after they ran out to a 24-0 lead. A lot has changed in 242 days: back then, Arrowhead was packed with 77,000 screaming maskless fans… Andy Reid was still the coach that couldn’t win the big game… plus both Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were still playing on their rookie deals. DeAndre Hopkins was the biggest threat to the Chiefs defense and Chiefs fans were nervous about Carlos Hyde taking over the game. Yet, many story lines remain the same between these two teams: two quarterbacks tied together forever, two coaches on totally different ends of the spectrum and two defenses looking to generate pressure with iconic pass rushers.

This year ArrowheadOne will be breaking down each Chiefs game with our weekly game preview. We’ll be looking at the 4 critical matchups or stories going into the game in the “4 downs” section each down getting more and more important. Next, we will pick the game against the spread and the over/under as well. Lastly, we will make our game score prediction.

1st Down: Andy Reid vs. Bill O’Brien

This offseason has been unlike any other. With the lack of OTA’s, rookie mini-camps, and preseason games, the leadership at the top of an organization matters even more this season. Andy has proven time and time again that when given months to prepare, he’s one of the greatest minds in football. Bill O’Brien has been widely criticized by many NFL commentators and players alike. When looking at O’Brien it is important to separate his moves as a general manager, and as a head coach. As a head coach O’Brien has won the AFC South four times and made the playoffs four times as well, including a season with a combination of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett and T.J. Yates starting at quarterback. While O’Brien is typically the butt of many NFL jokes, he’s won as many division championships as Sean McVay, Sean McDermott, Doug Pederson and Mike Zimmer… combined.

After the 1st quarter of the AFC Divisional round there were a lot of Texans fans who were ready to host the AFC Championship game thanks to O’Brien. He made several questionable calls going forward in the game that gave the Chiefs the upperhand, including a fake punt on his own side of the field. O’Brien has been proven he can consistently turn the Texans into a 9-to-11 wins per year, team. The key for him is to take the next step into being a true schematic advantage for his team, so they can become true Super Bowl contenders. 

Andy Reid has gone 6-1 in his season openers as the Chiefs head coach. He has a decided advantage over most NFL head coaches going into each season. The last 3 season openers he has unveiled a new offensive scheme that baffles defenses. In 2017, Kareem Hunt’s wheel route baffled the Patriots. In 2018, the Chiefs scored twice on the wide receiver push passes and last year Sammy Watkins went nuts using the leak concept. Here’s an example of the leak concept, when Watkins lined up as the left slot WR in game one in 2019:

Bill O’Brien has to be ready for whatever Andy Reid has on that plastic play sheet for the Texans to have a chance tonight. 

2nd Down-  Patrick Mahomes vs. Deshaun Watson

It’s the ultimate “what if” scenario. What if the Chiefs took Watson instead of Mahomes? Would Kansas City still be celebrating a Super Bowl? Would Mahomes still have an MVP to his credit? Would Bill O’Brien still be widely criticized? The two will forever be compared side by side. So far, the match ups between the two have not disappointed. This time it’s for the best 2 out of 3. 

In their October meeting last season, Watson was more dynamic on the ground — rushing for 2 TD’s and 42 yards — than through the air. He threw 2 INT including a great end zone pick by Charvarius Ward. In the divisional round, Watson had a much better game passing the ball with 2 TD’s and over 350 yards passing. However, Watson seemingly had no answer for the Chiefs defense after the 1st quarter. People seem to forget that the Chiefs lead the Texans 28-24 at halftime. There was a perfect opportunity for Watson to regain momentum and go blow-for-blow with Mahomes. Instead the Texans scored 7 points the rest of the game. One of Watson’s key faults has been his propensity to take too many sacks, even after the acquisition of Laremy Tunsil.

The Texans defense has had no answer for Mahomes thus far. Their secondary is one of the few in the league that might have less talent than the Chiefs. Likewise, the Texans have had a real hard time generating any pass rush on Mahomes. J.J. Watt might as well have been reported as a missing person in the divisional round. Where Mahomes seems to excel the most against the Texans is the mid to deep range passing game. This is why Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been instrumental in two games for the Chiefs offense. The Texans new defensive coordinator, Anthony Weaver, will likely provide Mahomes with some new wrinkles defensively.

For the Chiefs to be victorious tonight, Mahomes will need to continue to be the better quarterback on the field. In October, the narrative was that these two quarterbacks were on the same playing field, much like the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning matchups of the 2000’s. In January, Mahomes showed that Watson is not his equal. Tonight is the night when Mahomes puts an exclamation point on that statement. 

3rd Down-Chiefs Offense vs. Texans Defense 

This opinion isn’t exactly groundbreaking, but the Chiefs key to victory will be the dominance of their offense. While this point could be made for all 16 games this season, it’s more important than ever that the Chiefs offense comes out hot tonight. Last season new Green Bay Packers head coach Matt Lafleur and Chicago Bears head Coach Matt Nagy, both made headlines with their lack of usage of the preseason because both coaches opted to hardly use their starters in the 4 preseason games. In celebration of the NFL’s 100th season the Bears and Packers opened the season in that Thursday Night Football game, and their offenses looked like all they were missing was the old leather helmets. With a similar situation of limited preparation this offseason… the Chiefs offense needs to click right away. 

Another reason it is important for the Chiefs offense to gain early momentum is, to clear the way for rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The more comfortable the game script is for him the more opportunity he’ll have to get his feet underneath him. Afterall, the first time he takes a full — speed tackled to the ground — rep, will be in primetime, on national television. With a fully healthy J.J Watt, the more the Chiefs can keep the Texans pass rush guessing, if they can control the game script from the beginning, the better off they’ll be. 

Lastly, the Chiefs receivers need to continue to dominate the Texans secondary, more specifically the safeties. Justin Reid and old friend Eric Murray are going to be key to the Chiefs taking advantage of matchups. The Texans secondary had no answers for Travis Kelce in the divisional round as he dominated the game with 10 catches and 3 touchdowns. I’m sure Justin Reid’s fully healthy shoulder will be the answer against Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce. 

4th Down- Chiefs Secondary vs. Texans Receivers 

This is the biggest matchup in the game, a depleted young Chiefs secondary against a diverse core of Texans pass catchers. First let’s acknowledge that DeAndre Hopkins is an elite receiver. However, he rarely possessed game breaking speed or dynamic down field plays. Hopkins’ game was always more about crisp routes and contested catches. Although he’s gone, the Texans have other dynamic playmakers: Will Fuller will be healthy, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. While none of those names are your top fantasy draft picks, they are all quality receivers who have the ability to take it to the house, add in TE Darren Fells who had 10 TD’s last season plus two pass catching running backs in Duke Johnson and David Johnson. 

The Chiefs are without their key outside corner in Bashaud Breeland, and rookie standout Juan Thornhill will likely be on a snap count in his first game back from his ACL injury. Which completely changes how they go into coverage. Breeland and Ward were their primary outside corners last season which allowed Fenton to play in the slot in a limited role. It also allowed key playmaker Tyrann Mathieu to be a true wild card that could line up deep, in the slot or in the box. Eric Eager and George Chahrouri in their excellent podcast describe Mathieu as the Chiefs most valuable defensive weapon because his flexibility allows other players to fit into roles that they can excel in. They have also said Mathieu is “…one of the best overall defensive players in the league….” Without Breeland it makes it more difficult for Mathieu to do all that he usually does. In order for the Chiefs to win they will need to get key plays from rookie L’Jarius Sneed or primary special teamer Antonio Hamilton. 

One hope for the Chiefs’ secondary is the strength of the defense in the pass rush. In a zoom conference on Sunday, Brett Veach described the defensive line as the deepest group on the team. If the Chiefs can generate lots of pressure with Alex Okafor back and a fully healthy Chris Jones and Frank Clark, then Deshaun Watson might continue to struggle with sacks. 

The Pick- Texans +9.5 parlayed with the under (54) Bovada.com

6% of NFL games are decided by a double digit margin (Fat Jack Sports). Vegas is begging you to take the points here, but there is just too much unknown to plan on the Chiefs winning by double digits. Likewise the under is the stronger play. Expect lots of penalties and some turnovers as well, both of those keep the game close. 

The Prediction-Chiefs 28- Texans 21

Price Carter

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